To InfiniTier and beyond ....

[dancemom]

Tiers, tiers and more tears ....

True - the post I saw was talking about numbers nationally. You could be right!

I've been Googling all their qualifications. The silver lining of all this surely has to be that these people have made science and studying cool.

It can't just be me who sees all those letters after their names and gets a bit 😍

@snowcoveredcampsies I don't really have anything against Jason Leitch if he sticks with data and bothers to explain the reality.
I was challenging the aspect that scientists or academics shouldn't be presenting data in a daily briefing which now only really presents a summary of case data.

I don't disagree with driving numbers down either but the SG peoples panel report gave New Zealand as a example of elimination strategy which is completely unachievable now.

It's also against what many other scientists have recommended and the treating it like measles outbreak analogy doesn't work due coronavirus quick mutation speed compared to measles.
Would love to be proved wrong but I doubt that will happen and at some point they will have to admit defeat on the strategy as you can't keep people locked down indefinitely nor can you ask for compliance for a never ending timescale.

*should say that what the peoples panel were presented with as an example of elimination was New Zealand.

We are never going to get to community outbreak of 3 once every few months and all others being in a quarantine hotel.

[quote Scottishskifun]@snowcoveredcampsies I don't really have anything against Jason Leitch if he sticks with data and bothers to explain the reality.
I was challenging the aspect that scientists or academics shouldn't be presenting data in a daily briefing which now only really presents a summary of case data.

I don't disagree with driving numbers down either but the SG peoples panel report gave New Zealand as a example of elimination strategy which is completely unachievable now.

It's also against what many other scientists have recommended and the treating it like measles outbreak analogy doesn't work due coronavirus quick mutation speed compared to measles.
Would love to be proved wrong but I doubt that will happen and at some point they will have to admit defeat on the strategy as you can't keep people locked down indefinitely nor can you ask for compliance for a never ending timescale.[/quote]
I don't think that's right re NZ but GirlLovesWorld will know for sure.

Yes NZ was
An example of the step beyond elimination. The one we were too late for.

I only mentioned measles as an example of eliminated illness according to the CDC (we were discussing American context at time). I don't think they are similar illnesses. It was the status I was interested in.

Infact she wrote the levels a few posts back. Exclusion is what NZ did / do. We're not following that strategy in Scotland.

Yes NZ and Mali went for exclusion. Not elimination as they generally don't have much to try to eliminate!

Jason Leitch was on the radio today talking, rather bombastically, about how hard it is on those writing the policy and procedures for the return to school - ie office based civil servants.

No mention at all of teachers. We are attempting to teach classes (3 at once) in a gym.

He made me so bloody angry. All the hours and hours of teacher work and anxiety to offer a few hours and it is the policy Mamés who are deserving of mention.

Smug.

That's pretty shit

@Cismyfatarse I was reading the stuff from
Ds’ school today and just thinking how amazing the teachers there are. It’s really thoughtful and well written and they’ve put together a great package, given the dumping on them.

It must be awful for you teachers Cis. I heard of another teacher who's going to be spreading herself between 3 classes (E. Lothian) Nightmare.

JL has a very LOUD voice.

@GirlLovesWorld

Yes NZ and Mali went for exclusion. Not elimination as they generally don't have much to try to eliminate!

Thanks for clarifying!

😂 Still don't believe it will happen and think they will change as soon as furlough stops but like I say would happily eat my words if it does!

I said a week or so ago that the proportion of cases in DC had increased, part of that will be that the case reductions are more likely to be in the 65 plus group and the working age has been high for a while also.

working age population are more likely to have children who will get tested if adult has symptoms so increasing the amount of testing in younger households proportionate to the positive test figures.

@snowcoveredcampsies

Yes NZ was An example of the step beyond elimination. The one we were too late for.

I only mentioned measles as an example of eliminated illness according to the CDC (we were discussing American context at time). I don't think they are similar illnesses. It was the status I was interested in.

The SG keeps giving the measles comparison and did so again today hence my reference to it. But its not comparable.

Probably won't happen but it's a better goal than 'open everything the fuck up and everyone can take their chances'.

That’s what I’d like @GirlLovesWorld. Hospitals ok, vaccine here.

But I know, different strokes.

@GirlLovesWorld

Probably won't happen but it's a better goal than 'open everything the fuck up and everyone can take their chances'.

I don't believe in that one either! I thought suppression was the middle ground between the two?! 😂

We need some control measures still in place til more people are vaccinated but I also don't think it's right to basically criminalise people for going for a walk with more than 2 people for another 2 days....

Then your allowed 4 people from 2 households unless you read further and realise do a free course and have a designated person and suddenly your walk can be 15......
Or its illegal to cross the English/scottish border to see your family...... Except if its a wedding because they can't ban that one due to human rights legislation.... So pick a wedding....

There is a middle ground to be found in all of these things that doesn't leave people in horrific mental states.

@Scottishskifun I'm what context are they mentioning it though? It could be comparable if they are talking about levels of infection they are aiming for and that would tie in with what the CDC said about elimination.

[quote snowcoveredcampsies]@Scottishskifun I'm what context are they mentioning it though? It could be comparable if they are talking about levels of infection they are aiming for and that would tie in with what the CDC said about elimination. [/quote]
They are talking about management of outbreaks aiming for the same process as measles.

Unfortunately covid doesn't work that way the only way to get that level of control with covid is full backward tracing as well as forward tracing but we don't do it despite aiming for a full robust track and trace system.....

I too am getting annoyed at the SG's use of Measles as an exemplar when talking about controlling Covid via elimination and vaccination. NS has done it a few times, and Devi and Gregory have also been doing it. It's a very different virus with very different properties, and the only reason we can effectively control Measles via vaccination is because its so stable that immunity lasts for decades. This just isn't true of COVID which we know with a high degree of certainty because we already have a whole bunch of variants. It really does make me question how much input they're getting from actual virologists.

But if we vaccinate every year with a high uptake then surely it could be managed in a similar way.

@snowcoveredcampsies

But if we vaccinate every year with a high uptake then surely it could be managed in a similar way.

Its unlikely due to the way it mutates - we have never eradicated flu in the last hundred years. Unfortunately covid shares more characteristics with flu then it does measles.

There might be a small possibility in about 5-10 years time once the vaccination is approved for use for children and parents feel confident in getting their children vaccination. But sadly very highly unlikely in the immediate future.

As noted .easles is lifelong immunity from disease or immunisation. A very different kettle of fish.
This follows Jason Leitch referring to the smallpox eradication programme.
I'm done listening to SG (I don't know what they are playing at) and just follow virologists online at this point.

Measles of course.