Guilt Free Railing 3

[WouldBeGood]

Looks like railing is still needed.

Here is the judgment feee zone to do it.

@NCnotAllThat i linked to the WHO guidance on the old thread. From memory it actually has 4 criteria

• hospitalisations over 7 days/100k
• deaths over 7 days/100k
• number of positives/100k

-positivity rate

The document was written in November and does not mention vaccines.

When I did some rough calcs, I noticed that we ended up in different tiers based on the first 2 criteria vs the last two, which I think reflects the impact of the vaccine reducing hospitalisation and death.

The SG doc only quoted the last 2 criteria

Now to be fair to the WHO this is a global document written before any country had approved a vaccine, and even taking the vaccine in to account most of the world has not vaccinated a significant proportion of their population and it may take years for them to do so.

[quote WouldBeGood]@Lockdownbear I think they might have been listening to you! I’m in filthy Lanarkshire and saw something yesterday about a big drive to vaccinate given the higher rates.[/quote]
That really would be good. I'm praying for some progress in the West. We need a break from all this as much as other areas do if not more so.

Thanks for the info @StatisticallyChallenged.

Surely given that the WHO doc was done prior to vac approvals and that even now the world as a whole has very very few vaccinates shouldn’t the SG be tailoring to our specific circumstances (ie vax rolling out well). So don’t understand why they aren’t using first two criteria at this stage, or at least some weighted balance of all of them. To ignore hospitalisations and deaths in deciding restrictions to impose makes little sense to me. Are they going to apply this to all illnesses then. So next winter are we going to be locked down down because flu rates are x per 100,000? Or will they lockdown areas when there is chicken pox outbreaks? I’m being ott of course but that’s basically what our government is now trying to do ... stop any of us catching covid completely irrespective of the fact that it can be an extremely mild virus (with vax rolled out and hospital capacity available). They don’t seem to be taking as firm a line with day cancer deaths, heart disease, drug deaths or suicides so they - apparently we are allowed to die from those things.

Well indeed - my very rough calcs suggested that post vaccination death rates will potentially be within the range of flu death rates, and we don't lock down for flu

Here’s the NHS Lanarkshire new vaccination info. “Supercentres” set up and a big push

That’s good would re super centres.
Also the t&t for cases. Need to up this, so many cases not found in the community. Seems like going round in circles.
This is the latest graph I can see.
Someone mentioned more being employed in this area.

Latest ONS antibody data out. You can really see the impact of the slow vaccine roll out in Scotland.

In England antibody levels in the 80+ group are at approx 60%. In Scotland it is below 30%. Data from 11 Feb so hopefully both figures higher now.

However even in the unvaxxed rest because England has had higher infection rates it also has higher antibody levels.

This might explain the nervousness in Scotland in case England opens up uneventfully but we follow suit and have an upsurge.

www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/which-covid-lockdown-level-glasgow-19945363?fbclid=IwAR21mcQp8ncSFfR1mpaQGXeZCaCTwR61s9eo1Zlf6pfxQZm21kE0_cKxZl4

Why, oh why will it be based on cases rather than hospitalisations now that we're vaccinating? I thought lockdown was to save the nhs.

@Coquohvan

That’s good would re super centres. Also the t&t for cases. Need to up this, so many cases not found in the community. Seems like going round in circles. This is the latest graph I can see. Someone mentioned more being employed in this area.

Yeah, i pointed out a while back that tracing was really low and I know numbers are falling so would expect a slow down, but the slow down in tracing happened before the slow down in positive tests. I guess that it's partly because the cases are in settings such as hospitals and prisons so therefore not in the community as such.

There are adverts on indeed for 1 year contract/secondment tracers. What worried me most was the belief that contact tracers would still be needed in a year's time.

Fingers crossed that's just a precaution incase of variants over next winter.

Time to listen to my nemesis

Here we go 🤞

Also listening

🙋‍♀️

Focus is education...

Stats: 542 cases, 4.4%, 784 in hospital down 40. 33 deaths.

1 year yesterday since first confirmed case in Scotland

Vaccinated 1.634 million. Evidence it's already reducing deaths. First dozzze reduces risk of needing treatment by 80%

May have supply issues next week, wont affect mid April target

Recent data encouraging, apparent slow down in decline has reduced. Cases lowest since oct. Admissions gone down from >1k to about 400

Test numbers still 13x higher than mid August.

Variants are scary

Need to keep being sensible

decisions this week
Too early to be sure of impact of p1-3
15th March, unless new Evidence, p4-7 and regulated childcare back
All secondary back ft after easter
All secondary spend some time in school between 15th March and easter

That was somewhat more positive than last time. I might have shed a few happy tears for my P4.

PR machine working this week then 😂 I think we are going to see a massive shift over the next few weeks.

Thank fuck for that. So so sick of this now.

Yeah just told my P6

Whrn secondary return face coverings must be worn at all time

All school staff and s4-6 will have access to lateral flow tests twice a week

Stats
Thanks for your summary.

Really glad to hear all secondary kids will at least get sometime back before Easter.
I did think SG would u turn after last weeks reaction but glad to hear it.

Thanks @StatisticallyChallenged

Urgh. Face coverings all day. Welcome back, mask acne.

Sorry if I've missed an update but hows MrGroove today?

Good news for your business stats.

Obviously the masks all day is shite but ds doesn’t much care about masks.

Hopefully Nipoleon. Now we just have to live in fear of a single kid testing positive and shutting everything for 2 weeks! But open is an improvement for sure