Tiers until the end of time

[runningpink]

Quickly putting this up as last thread is full

Yes potentially the likes of Glasgow would potentially be in long term level 3 or higher, no travel, restricted baby groups, indoor visits or travel.

If the Scottish government stick to this strategic framework plan then a lot of businesses are in trouble. Reduction in numbers long term is reliant on up take of vaccine.

More info to follow in mid March apparently!

I suggest people go read the document although maybe with a glass of gin and a chocolate bar.....

In some ways I wish we did live in Glasgow at at least there are some attractions in the city, plus shops and better sports facilities...

The likes of East Dunbartonshire and presumably Inverclyde, East Renfrewshire have all the negatives of being in the Glasgow health board but none of the facilities while we're locked down on a county level.

Clackmannanshire is probably in a similar position as it's small as well...

Tiers (knowing we'll be in the worst tier) is not really a light at the end of the tunnel.

Really wanted to go skiing in the Highlands. Given up on that, my sport and running...

Scottishskifun who will be paying for the mitigation measures like furlough if Glasgow remains in Tier 3 beyond the cut off date then I wonder? Or is it just tough luck at that point?

Their criteria for giving out funding was anything but fair the last time. DH missed out as he hadn't carried out 60% + of his work in Scotland. Never mind that he'd paid 100% of his taxes here

[quote StatisticallyChallenged]@Scottishskifun and what do you want to bet that they won't adjust their calculation of the positivity rate to reflect this either?

The WHO indicators basically look like they will shift everything up a tier.

20/100k is miniscule for a virus where those at risk of it have been vaccinated.[/quote]
Unfortunately yep I doubt it.
From what I can see they aren't factoring in a vaccination rate either into the calculations for levels only the virus rate.

Oh god I don't think I have enough gin in the house for this!

Was the "tweak" in the indicators mentioned?

It's a pretty massive change. Really quite significant. I also notice that there is no number where we exit tier 0. Tier 0 is "close to 0" for both indicators.

@GoldenOmber I'm not sure how there's not light at the end of the tunnel tbh. 🤷🏻‍♀️ not trying to be awkward but there is clearly a plan for easing restrictions.

poor bloody softplay never reopened

@StatisticallyChallenged don’t I know it my three year old starts nursery on Monday having barely seen another child in months due to the weather. I had him out in the playpark as much as possible over summer (when they reopened) and meeting up with friends with toddlers but he’s such a highly strung wee guy and as I’m not allowed to enter the nursery building I’m pretty sure it’ll be rough.

I feel awful for soft play owners. My local has temporarily become a food delivery service. I wonder how many won’t reopen after being closed for over a year.

Will there be much incentive to get tested, when everyone’s been vaccinated and the possible result of a positive test is that you’re the reason your area has to stay in Level 3 for another three weeks?

People (including me!) have been very willing to get tested and isolate while we wait for results when there’s a risk we could spread it to someone vulnerable or start an exponentially rising chain in transmissions. After the vaccine, though....

[quote kurtrussellsbeard]@GoldenOmber I'm not sure how there's not light at the end of the tunnel tbh. 🤷🏻‍♀️ not trying to be awkward but there is clearly a plan for easing restrictions. [/quote]
Okay, can you show me where on this diagram is the point at which we ditch restrictions and border controls? Because it appears to be ‘not at all’.

@MaxNormal

Scottishskifun who will be paying for the mitigation measures like furlough if Glasgow remains in Tier 3 beyond the cut off date then I wonder? Or is it just tough luck at that point?

Their criteria for giving out funding was anything but fair the last time. DH missed out as he hadn't carried out 60% + of his work in Scotland. Never mind that he'd paid 100% of his taxes here

No idea! They haven't included how they plan to support businesses or people

I think you're right @Scottishskifun. The WHO indicators seem to be ones based on the current mortality/hospitalisation rates of covid 19. In a vaccinated population these stats will reduce significantly and so the indicators will need to change. This seems totally disproportionate given the recent info about the vaccine

@randomsabreuse

In some ways I wish we did live in Glasgow at at least there are some attractions in the city, plus shops and better sports facilities...

The likes of East Dunbartonshire and presumably Inverclyde, East Renfrewshire have all the negatives of being in the Glasgow health board but none of the facilities while we're locked down on a county level.

Clackmannanshire is probably in a similar position as it's small as well...

Tiers (knowing we'll be in the worst tier) is not really a light at the end of the tunnel.

Really wanted to go skiing in the Highlands. Given up on that, my sport and running...

I always think Glasgow's great for bars, restaurants, shops, but not so much for things we're allowed to do. There's little in the way of animal parks, etc. And I really miss beaches and mountains.

Just shows the grass is always greener.

[quote kurtrussellsbeard]@GoldenOmber I'm not sure how there's not light at the end of the tunnel tbh. 🤷🏻‍♀️ not trying to be awkward but there is clearly a plan for easing restrictions. [/quote]
Except they have just massively shifted the goal post of where you have to get to for it to be eased.
It's not only no light at the end of the tunnel it's likely to be restrictions far longer as they have just made it harder again.

Not everyone is willing to have the vaccination which will effect positively rate making it impossible to get to zero level therefore no restrictions!

East Dunbartonshire doesn't have beaches. We have the Campsie Fells, at least some of which are just about within 5 miles of Glasgow... so it's not so much the grass being greener as exactly the same grass but most of it is fenced off.

I'm thinking about the Transport and Science Museums (which were open) plus Kelvingrove. East Dunbartonshire didn't open most sports facilities even when this was possible...

@GoldenOmber I just don't understand how this is 1. A surprise or 2. Unique to Scotland.

Dr Fauci was saying social distancing and masks were likely to be with us beyond vaccination in certain circumstances and so was Patrick Vallance?

I think they are talking about very specific things and times. Like the height of winter when they expect a surge kind of thing.

I will admit that I don't understand it fully myself but surely they aren't just trying to be dicks? Maybe I'm just too trusting. I don't understand why a bunch of professionals would wake up and say let's collide together to fuck up peoples lives.

@randomsabreuse

East Dunbartonshire doesn't have beaches. We have the Campsie Fells, at least some of which are just about within 5 miles of Glasgow... so it's not so much the grass being greener as exactly the same grass but most of it is fenced off.

I'm thinking about the Transport and Science Museums (which were open) plus Kelvingrove. East Dunbartonshire didn't open most sports facilities even when this was possible...

Yes. Bishopbriggs and Kirkintilloch Leisure Centres never opened up. At least you could get tickets for Transport and Kelvingrove Museums like you said.

I don't know if pp was saying Glasgow doesn't have parks but it has the best parks- we travel in for the parks!

@kurtrussellsbeard afraid not just in winter. The SG has decided to go for a very tough elimination strategy.
1 it is a surprise given England aren't which then means it's unachievable in real terms for Scotland

1. Yes unique to Scotland the only places which have achieved this so far are ones with very little/none freight via lorries.

They aren't trying to be dicks they have decided elimination is the best strategy option. Unfortunately it's unachievable with movement of people and goods. Which then means that Scotland will stay in much stricter levels for a longer time period regardless of the time of year.
Vaccination rate isn't factored into the WHO levels which means if lower uptake in younger people than you still aren't going to get back to family indoors in some areas as the positive test rate will be too high.

I will admit that I don't understand it fully myself but surely they aren't just trying to be dicks? Maybe I'm just too trusting. I don't understand why a bunch of professionals would wake up and say let's collide together to fuck up peoples lives.

I don’t think they’re trying to be dicks or to fuck up people’s lives just for the hell of it. But yes, most countries are planning to return to normal. Even New Zealand isn’t planning to keep borders closed indefinitely but apparently we are?

I think a strategy like this is probably going to damage the vaccine uptake rates all by itself. Lots of younger people aren’t that worried about getting covid themselves but would still take the vaccine in order to get back to normal. If we say that the vaccine won’t make any difference to that, I think fewer people will bother.

I will admit that I don't understand it fully myself but surely they aren't just trying to be dicks? Maybe I'm just too trusting. I don't understand why a bunch of professionals would wake up and say let's collide together to fuck up peoples lives.

Scientists have different areas of expertise, different preconceived ideas, and often have very different interpretations of the same data. They also usually have a very narrow focus and will advise on that, but that may not be the best option in the round. I believe that Devi Shridar genuinely believes that elimination is the best course of action to give the maximum reduction in COVID damage as per her remit (although I do think she's being naïve about the implications of prolonged restrictions). (I also believe that she is a minority opinion on that, and that most experts with virological or infectious disease specialisms believe that the virus will always be with us.) So while it might be true that harsher restrictions for longer may reduce COVID cases more than would otherwise be the case, and the SG advisors may say that in good faith, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's best course of action overall because the restrictions themselves are causing a lot of harm on many levels.

The UK gov have been very open that there will be more COVID cases, hospitalisations and some deaths when they open up (although far less now because of the vaccination programme), but they are also clear that they must open up because COVID harm is not the only kind of harm and they must minimise damage elsewhere. You can't save everyone, especially when pretty much everyone agrees you can't eliminate the virus, so locking down longer is just postponing the inevitable. Up here we seem to have advisors and government who only recognise COVID harm and pay lip service to everything else, and I for one think that's very short sighted.

I think furlough will be extended until England is reopened. But at the same time I think it could be restricted to certain sectors, ie the ones that are still closed in England.
I cannot see BJ paying furlough for softplay workers or bar staff in Scotland while their English counterparts are out working, paying tax. English voters aren't going to buy it either.

If she wants to revert to teirs then there needs to be a concentrate effort to get the areas in the highest teirs vaccinated first. Controversial but needs to happen.

The lockdowns are becoming cruel. And very damaging to MH.

Scientists have different areas of expertise, different preconceived ideas, and often have very different interpretations of the same data. They also usually have a very narrow focus and will advise on that, but that may not be the best option in the round

Yes, exactly. When people say "the scientists say..." then in addition to the stuff above about modelling there is the issue of focus. They're looking at covid. What stops covid. What reduces covid.

Which is absolutely fine for scientists studying this. But is that the goal for the country? Should it be?

I think the goal should be trying to have the best quality of life possible given the existence of covid. That includes considering the harms of covid but is about striking a balance

I should add that I mean after the vulnerable people are done. Get the people in the highest teirs done, pool resources, even if it means a delay in the lower risk areas.

I agree @Lockdownbear with the prioritised vaccinations, seems the only strategy that might help at this point seeing SG going for elimination of what should be a relatively minor ailment for most, once most vulnerable are vaccinated.

Look I actually agree with going relatively slow until more folks are vaccinated. I was even signed up to S3 DS going back after Easter holidays, but now I don't know if he'll get a proper face to face education even then and I hate the surely intentional slip up about the dates - no my DS won't be going back on 5th April as that's when he starts two weeks of school holidays- just like every other blinking teenager in Scotland.

And still not knowing when I can see relatives in England.

I'm just over it now. We're going to try to visit our relatives as soon as accommodation opens up in England mid April. Don't know how much the police fine might be, but hopefully we won't get caught. I've said to DSs friends DM that he's welcome inside, I've encouraged DS to skip religious education- which should have been dropped as soon as they had no face to face classes - so he can play football with his pals. I'll welcome whatever friends want to come inside.

I've been relatively law abiding up to now, but whats the point ? There is no hope in the plan she laid out and no recognition of the impact of vaccines. So what is there to hope for - precisely nothing.

Rookie you'd be highly unlikely to be caught. English police won't care.

How on earth are Police meant to stop check the legitimacy of cars on the M74 returning? Have your excuse ready, "been to visit my vulnerable Granny, she was getting depressed she might never see her GGC"