Tiers until the end of time

[runningpink]

Quickly putting this up as last thread is full

“... the SG is being ideologically driven”

Yes, that evil ideology of not wanting people to die. Also called common decency. FFS.

Ah yes, cos wanting people to be able to earn a living, children to be educated, families to be able to see each other is utterly indecent

@kurtrussellsbeard no problem

So mathematical models are exactly that a model yes they use real life data but it is dependent on the variables involved. They also aren't the quickest to run some modelling system softwares take days.

The SG prediction data has been very wrong in the past yes for instance Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire projections in end of Nov were predicted to reach 400/100,000 by before Christmas hence moved from tier 2 to Tier 3 that never happened.

It's also unclear if the current data projection has factored in the latest on the percentage of hospitalisation reduction with 1 dose of vaccination but given this was only released yesterday its unlikely to have been encorporated into the model yet.

As said there are a variety that will be presented which will all have a range but yes its not unusual for model predictions to get it wrong as they don't take into consideration quick changes.

To add to what @Scottishskifun said, a small change in modelling assumptions can make a huge difference, as can the underlying model chosen. I model economics rather than health/mortality stuff but the underlying concepts from a modelling perspective are pretty similar.

@Scottishskifun thank you. Is it not the case though that they have a duty to look at the worst case scenario.

This is what all the drama was about prof Ferguson wasn't it. Part from his affair I mean. Incorrect statistical modelling? It must be relatively common?

@StatisticallyChallenged thank you also.

Your insights are very interesting. Hopefully you understand my frustration though.

@MaxNormal

So are you actually seriously claiming that they have their projections wrong and that they are all holding us hostage for no reason. That the experts are lying or inept?

My view is that the SG is being ideologically driven as they're very taken by the zero covid idea or at least as close to elimination as possible, and also their most trusted advisors are largely social scientists who share this vision.

Of course they are 🤷🏻‍♀️ as is every government ever

Of course they are 🤷🏻‍♀️ as is every government ever

I thought we were arguing that the SG were heeding the experts and following the science, now you're saying it is indeed ideological?

I am not going to suddenly break out and start ignoring the rules, but I am profoundly depressed by the latest timetable announcements.

Just need to keep plodding on, but God, it's grim as f**k. And no amount of adverts with inspirational women running up hills will make me feel better about this.

Well to be fair @MaxNormal everything is ideological. As it stands I don't think it's a bad ideology to follow.

I just don't think it's all that different from England's 🤷🏻‍♀️

We just need to get on with it. Everyone is miserable. It's shit.

Thanks Running, How are you coping? Sending hugs

@MaxNormal

Of course they are 🤷🏻‍♀️ as is every government ever

I thought we were arguing that the SG were heeding the experts and following the science, now you're saying it is indeed ideological?

Their ideology is towards saving lives via maximum suppression. Supported by science, handily.

WM have been led by BJ's ideological libertarian persuasion. Witness the latest, fully opening schools against the advice of his CSO.

I know what I prefer.

As it stands I don't think it's a bad ideology to follow

And as it stands I think it's a terribly bad ideology to follow which will socially and economically damaging, and I also think the science behind it is poor. It just won't work attempting to be that different to England and it will hurt a lot of people and businesses trying.

It's really not that different! The end point isn't as clear but that's, er, because it's the end point and we're not near it yet.

As a “non-essential” office worker, I have been working from home for almost a year now, as have my team. I have people pleading to be allowed back so they can see and interact with other people.
We hear about plans for hairdressers and nail technicians, all of whom get way closer to other people than office workers at desks do, but no mention of us. Am I just to continue working from the kitchen table or with a laptop on my knee on the bed?
My mental health is shot to shit. I have had to buy new prescription glasses after a year of working solidly on screens, and today paid to see a physiotherapist because of damage to my neck and back from working hunched over a laptop. Our office is way more Covid compliant than any supermarket with only a small handful of people in there, but we’re not allowed back. Does anyone hear us????

Re mental health, being able to go to the pool again would do wonders for mine. Somewhere to go, to walk to and have a bloody good outdoor swim. I was so excited at the prospect of 12 April yesterday. Stupid me.

I do not believe that anywhere in Scotland will be allowed to go to Teir 0. Shetland wasn’t allowed to go to that level when we had months of no cases last time.

And there's no doubt who the economic damage falls heaviest on, the youngest and poorest educated are bearing the brunt of the hit.

@kurtrussellsbeard yes you should examine the realistic worst case but actually should always look at the range. As @statisticallychallenged mentioned the smallest change in a factor can have a huge impact on the outcome its not incorrect modelling as all models produce different outcomes depending on the inputs. The models then needs to be factored in against the trade off of economic decline, recovery time etc.

I understand the frustration the public expect numbers to be correct and that informs decisions. Unfortunately prediction modelling can never do that it gives indications but won't tell you the reality.

Watching the real life data and numbers of hospital emissions, deaths, vaccinations delivered, number of cases over a 7 day period for a area, (positivity rate although included can be skewed), gives a far better picture and hence my frustration to say that they wish to take a regional approach again but don't seem to have factored in the regional data if they put everyone in tier 3.

The biggest factor that models struggle to predict is human behaviour. Unfortunately for many today's announcement will have made people think whats the point if we aren't aiming for normality and thus will stop with the avoidance behaviour the large majority have been following.

@dementedma my organisation was allowing small team meetings in places like outdoor cafes just before we went into tiers etc. I was also meeting a colleague once a week in a cafe to do work stuff which was definitely good for our mental health. Would either of those be an option?

I had this screen shot from last time. Wonder what the enhancements are likely to be.

@MintPI

I had this screen shot from last time. Wonder what the enhancements are likely to be.

Go to a polling station. Do not pass go. If you’re 16 collect your happy birthday letter bribe personally signed by NS.

@Lockdownbear I’m ok. Thanks for the virtual hug. To be honest I expected this today. Knew it would be tougher than England as usual. Doesn’t make it any easier though.

Discovered my family breaking the rules at the weekend. None of them are on their own, all still out working but that didn’t stop three families mixing indoors.
I’m so angry and upset by this but know there is no point saying anything. I had suspected they were so was just confirmed I guess.

@MintPI you don’t happen to have the level 0 screenshot from last time?
I stupidly deleted them just the other week