Tracks of my tiers

[tinseltitsbumfannythelot]

New thread!

Morning all.

Bloody stupid idea from Uncle Tony imho. Much better to target both doses of the vaccine at the 1/3 of the population at risk from 99% of the impact. We have enough for this and rolling it out as quickly as logistically possible.

The efficacy stats are for general population in controlled environment with matched vaccine measured over a 1 month time frame. The target at risk population is very likely to have lower efficacy, there is no guarantee real World controls on delivery maintain efficacy at lab environment levels (especially given novel storage issues), no guarantee on length of efficacy, already evidence of enough mutation to have Pfizer starting to make public statements about how easy it will be to re-engineer the vaccine to combat this. A superspready mutation needs almost 100% efficacy so the Oxford vaccine at 60% with questions around ability to repeat vaccinate starts to look like a non starter.

Does anyone think the election may not happen in May?

If the election in May does not happen it is a huge political risk for the SNP. In May they will still get the benefit of the doubt in doing the best they could during a pandemic and perhaps even a bounce if we are at last out the other side. The longer they wait the more post match analysis and recrimination will inevitably grow.

There are no guarantees on anything this year or next @Dinnafashyersel

Personally think I'd like to see a govt level response to this - given the costs imposed on groups not at risk from covid this year and continuing into next, I'd like more details on exactly how fast the vaccine is being rolled out and what the constraints are, and why they can't be removed.

Good point. I’m slightly sceptical about all sorts at the moment to put it mildly

So sorry, I asked a question right at the end of the last thread!

I think they might try to postpone the May election but by May things should be turning the corner.
The weather and the vaccine roll out. Look how wonderful we've done.

Daft idea not to do the two doses. We have no clue on the long term (beyond 9 mths) efficiency of the vaccine so why you'd start experimenting on the oldies is beyond me.

Because we are at an absolute crisis and we've experimented with everything else - and some oldies might say I'll take 91 percent now thanks rather than wait 2 more months of cowering under my bed.

I'm not convinced enough cross panel thought has been put into the vaccine roll out, rather than the failing containment aspect.

It's not just Tone saying it, he had independent backing for this idea.

The more hopeful scenario is that eventually the disease impact wanes due to vaccination to such an extent that no-one can work out why we are bothering to test, track and isolate.

As long as routine testing in schools is felt to be necessary and every "case" identified is resulting in 50 self-isolations there will be pressure to close schools.

Is anyone independent of Tony and co? They should concentrate on getting it out to the over 80s and those in nursing homes. Then move down the priority list as planned. Anything else is going to lead to scattergun dilution of efforts.

Also how do you maintain population measures when Aunty Jean has had her vaccine and decided to go back to normal but Uncle Jim in the nursing home hasn't?

If they could do the american election they can do the Scottish election

Agreed. Opposition parties should start getting that message out there.

My 80+ DPs in Perth are still convinced that it will be February at the earliest before they get the vaccine.

I think a one dose for 90% efficacy is a great solution. Giving the vaccine is not just about the mortality rate, it's the only viable solution we currently have for restarting the economy and reintroducing our civil liberties. An imperfect solution is at least a part solution.

Once the oxford vaccine is approved SG should be using every route possible to dispense- even if that means paying pharmacies to do it - quicker we get this out, quicker we get some relief from this horrible world we are currently in.

@Iwillneverbesatisfied

If they could do the american election they can do the Scottish election

Good point! Never thought about that.

Jeremy Hunt (who can't remember if his wife is Chinese of Japanese) and William Hague are on the same bandwagon. They are very much part of the same cabal. (remember Hague out gladhanding with Angelina Jolie on his arm?)

Peston and co are bought and paid for media. Hunt is never off his show-probably more regular guests than regular viewers for Peston and Newsnight these days.

I’m not convinced the American model is one to look to but I do take your point there.

90% effectiveness is surely very high is the flu vaccine not usually between 65-85%?

I am starting to wonder now with the vaccine as well if we'll (hopefully) soon have the bizarre scenario of the over 80s all out enjoying life coz vaccinated, while the rest of us continue to live our demi lives at home.

Does it matter where an idea comes from?

Would it have been more acceptable if someone from scot gov had raised this? I find that a little sinister. It's an idea, it should be evaluated.

Tony was way more than 90% sure about WMD. He convinced more than 90% of politicians (including Hague), journalists and the general public. He was wrong and knew he did not have the evidence even as he was doing the convincing.

@rookiemere

My 80+ DPs in Perth are still convinced that it will be February at the earliest before they get the vaccine.

I think a one dose for 90% efficacy is a great solution. Giving the vaccine is not just about the mortality rate, it's the only viable solution we currently have for restarting the economy and reintroducing our civil liberties. An imperfect solution is at least a part solution.

Once the oxford vaccine is approved SG should be using every route possible to dispense- even if that means paying pharmacies to do it - quicker we get this out, quicker we get some relief from this horrible world we are currently in.

I heard dentists will be doing it.

So yes, the idea can't have merit because of who proposed it.

I sympathise with the WMD and people not liking him but frankly no public health ideas should be off the table for discussion by the right experts at this stage of the very long and awful game.

I know we are all scared and the last thing we perhaps want to entertain is ideas from our least favourite people.

@Dinnafashyersel so if somebody was wrong about one thing, then they clearly have it wrong about everything else? That makes no sense.

That makes sense icanboogie. If they can inject Botox (they do at my dentist anyway) then they should be able to administer a vaccine.

Breaking news. The pub that NS was in famously not wearing her mask is our local !