Arkadia agree only as regards very bright well supported DC. The slack in P4-7 generally allows for some catch up for those lagging behind before secondary. Any DC who are in this category will suffer hugely unless this is addressed. They are also the ones most adversely impacted by lockdown.
DC transitioning from non-existent nursery and patchy P1-3 will also be majorly impacted if they haven't had the usual settling in slack and confidence building before starting on 3Rs.
The same DC also suffer a drop off due to hormones / peer pressure in S1-3.
The current approach is likely to be catastrophic for the attainment gap.
By senior secondary the dye is pretty much cast so given the correct access to curriculum resources and teacher feedback I would consider the educational impact minimal. The messing about with assessments and isolations and lack of consistent curriculum delivery will massively impact this cohort as a whole. Will probably lead to a huge lottery in outcomes and future pathways.
I say all this as someone with a DD3 in P5 who is more or less unaffected educationally and DD1 and DD2 who I consider extremely fortunate to be at Uni where to date remote learning has been functioning extremely well. The Unis are even doing their best to foster social connections in the face of a total lack of forethought or consideration from the Rule Makers.
Happy to report just back from local supermarket and park. General atmosphere is that people are getting on with their life with as little regard as possible for all the absolute nonsense coming at them from all quarters.