Tiers Of A Clown

[Bytheloch]

Thread #3456

Released from our dirty T4, but still bamboozled. Let’s keep each other sane on here...

@WouldBeGood

I think it’s now accepted that it does stop transmission - saw that this week somewhere ?

What stops spread? Sorry lost track of the conversation.

The levels framework has been partly screwed by the Christmas free for all, which starts in 13 days time.
And I think your DS Notanactualsheep has a point. I couldn't see this winter being anything other than more restrictions, till spring at the earliest. But I don't think that was really made clear. I think individual risk is different from viewing it at a population level. The opportunity for super spreading events is increased with more hospitality open for longer, with more people out and drinking. On an individual level it does seem nuts that an Irn Bru at 5pm is allowed, but a beer at 6pm isn't.

There is the Christmas easing which most responsible adults and families will stick to.
Then nothing for Hogmanay, I think that's where the real danger is.

What stops spread? Sorry lost track of the conversation
The vaccine (does it just stop people getting sick, or does it stop people contracting the virus and being able to spread it onto others?)

@Perihelion

The levels framework has been partly screwed by the Christmas free for all, which starts in 13 days time. And I think your DS Notanactualsheep has a point. I couldn't see this winter being anything other than more restrictions, till spring at the earliest. But I don't think that was really made clear. I think individual risk is different from viewing it at a population level. The opportunity for super spreading events is increased with more hospitality open for longer, with more people out and drinking. On an individual level it does seem nuts that an Irn Bru at 5pm is allowed, but a beer at 6pm isn't.

Yes, I accept individual risk and population risk aren't the same thing...fair point. But surely they are linked. In a community with low population risk, individual risk is correspondingly lower... yy, superspreaders etc, but these are easier to identify, contact trace and isolate relevant people where there are low overall cases in the community. So less of an overall concern in lower tier areas.

Also, we do work on an individual level, not a population one...we aren't bees . And for a politician to say to hospitality (or retail or any other sector) "ah, well, I'm going to scrap your livelihood for 6 months with no review til the spring for the good of the community, regardless of what the virus is doing, and regardless of what you've done to minimise its spread in your restaurant" is harsh, and wouldn't go down well! People in Orkney would be rightly pissed off with a nationwide lockdown in time for Christmas, because numbers are low there. So where do you draw the line between where things are "safe" and where they aren't? I thought that was the point of the tiers, to identify high and lower risk populations, and treat them with different levels of restrictions.

Re: Christmas free for all (just a relaxation on travel and in house socialising, really, so not strictly free for all... Still no pubs!) - yes, I think this is the reason. Which is a bit shit... if the SG doesn't trust the tier system to cope with the 5 days of fewer restrictions it should be tightened up nationwide. Not just singling out one city.

@NotAnActualSheep

What stops spread? Sorry lost track of the conversation The vaccine (does it just stop people getting sick, or does it stop people contracting the virus and being able to spread it onto others?)

Ah right. I guess it will take a bit of time to be 100% sure but most vaccines stop the vaccinated incubating the virus which in turn protects the unvaccinated, if enough people are vaccinated. That's what protects tiny people before they get their jags. Fingers crossed for the covid vaccines.

I heard some "expert" this afternoon saying that even though people were vaccinated and couldn't contract the virus, they could still spread it to others, so masks and social distancing would still be necessary.

If that's true, how would it be transmitted? By brushing against people? I thought it was mainly transmitted by droplets from our mouths, hence the masks.
I'm totally confused silly me for thinking that getting vaccinated would put an end to all this shit

Rara do they maybe mean they could still spread it until they are completely immune. Which would be sometime after the second jag.

As I say other people not being able to spread viruses is what stops babies getting infections before they are able to have vaccines.

@Bikingbear I believe the current vaccine just stops the symptoms being as bad if you catch it. It doesn't make you immune or stop you from spreading it as far as they currently know.

My understanding is they don't know whether it will stop people spreading it
I am sure I heard Whitty saying he was cautiously optimistic but they simply don't know yet

See this is why I don't get the vaccine passport, because you could be a super spreader but merrily going about your vaccinated business.

I think they are being overly cautious with saying the vaccinated might still be carriers.
Might also be a warning to the vaccinated they still need to be careful with regards to other people.

I read an article, in the Times I think, which said that the Oxford vaccine also prevented people being asymptomatic carriers. They know this because they tested everyone in the study regularly, not just when they showed symptoms. If I recall correctly, there was a peer-reviewed paper in the Lancet about it.
However, I think they need to do more trials on the Oxford vaccine to check the most efficacious dose, after they accidentally discovered that a half dose first was more effective. But the article seemed quite positive to me.

This is behind a paywall sorry and I cannot do the share token on my phone but it was this article

Oxford-Astrazeneca Covid vaccine shows sign of giving herd immunity

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/oxford-vaccine-shows-sign-of-giving-herd-immunity-80n3j7kvn

That is amazing!

Fantastic news on the Oxford vaccine.

Oh please God. I've had the cold this week and wearing masks when you've got the cold is not nice at all.

We're not going to get the choice of which vaccine we get are we? I'm in one of the groups that's been prioritised so would probably get the Pfizer one although I'd rather get the Oxford if it's proven that it leads to herd immunity. Tbh I can't see the point of getting a vaccine if I'm still going to have to wear a fucking mask and stay away from my colleagues so I can't even hear what they're saying.

Feeling really low today as we're doing our best at school but have a bitchy new acting HT who sent our 3 emails to us today - all of which were critical. I haven't been feeling well, hate my class and have just about had enough of this shitshow

The majority of people will end up with the Oxford vaccine. But remember herd immunity only kicks in once a high percentage of people are vaccinated.

I just hope that the Oxford one gets approved soon. They seem to have more questions with it over the doseage issues.

I'm I the only person who feels the Hand of God helped make the discovery a half dose then full dose of the Oxford vaccine works best?
Logically it was just a screw up, but really how often do these companies who I assume check and re check stuff, make that sort of error?

They say it wasn't an error, it was deliberate and they were trying a few things. Whether that's a cover up or not, who really cares, as long as it works.

I’ll take any old shit to get out.

I am very sick of this.

They admitted it was a manufacturing error.

Yip I'd take anything that works to get out of this.

@WouldBeGood

I’ll take any old shit to get out.

I am very sick of this.

I hear ya. Me too.

Happy Friday everyone, a day closer to getting to the end of this pishy year.

Friday - two weeks to the man in red!

@Bikingbear I am looking forward to that- nice quiet time with my DCs and crispy duck