Fears For Tiers

[Bytheloch]

Thread #567 Still here, getting through each day one 2M step away at a time. November into December 2020 here we go...

Oh well I may be in a minority but i would forgo my right to freedom of travel to get out of this mess quicker.
I was sceptical about travel restrictions initially at the start of the pandemic but it’s not just communist states who have tried this, Australia and New Zealand, albeit with differing success.

ah FFS, DD just told by school she's been in close contact and they are deciding who to send home to self isolate - DD hasn't heard yet if she's one of them. Shouldn't they sent everyone in close contact home? I don't get it! So sitting by the phone waiting to see if school will call me to collect her!

That=might be true for many young people @RJnomore1.

But it won’t be reshaped in the next few weeks, which won’t help the young people in 4th - 6th year now.

No one is saying the current system is perfect.

@Jodri

Oh well I may be in a minority but i would forgo my right to freedom of travel to get out of this mess quicker. I was sceptical about travel restrictions initially at the start of the pandemic but it’s not just communist states who have tried this, Australia and New Zealand, albeit with differing success.

Personally travel restrictions abroad I think should have been implemented more stringently, but at the moment they're pointless. We have too much community spread here anyway. It worked in NZ because they did it quickly and stopped it taking hold.

@Jodri

Oh well I may be in a minority but i would forgo my right to freedom of travel to get out of this mess quicker. I was sceptical about travel restrictions initially at the start of the pandemic but it’s not just communist states who have tried this, Australia and New Zealand, albeit with differing success.

I guess that's the point.

I don't think that they way the policy is designed is going to get anyone out of anything quicker. We are heading into winter, more people die, more people get respiratory illnesses, the virus is generally more prevalent in society. The tests are not accurate, the MI is shite, they seem to have no clue why it's spreading.

I'm not prepared to give up my rights on that basis. They've had 8/9 months to get a grip, to study what works, to take actions and they've pissed in the wind.

@Callisto1

Personally school is the absolutely last thing I want shut, but if blended learning would avoid tier 4 than maybe that's a compromise worth making?

That’s how I feel about a Christmas break for the virus. Is going into T4 about containment so we can have a 48 hour break to eat Christmas dinner and squeeze a year’s worth of hugs in with family and friends? I’m happy to give that a miss if we can stay on a reasonable tier level that reflects the hospital cases, not just the positive tests, which appears to be the current validation for tier moves.

@Jodri

Oh well I may be in a minority but i would forgo my right to freedom of travel to get out of this mess quicker. I was sceptical about travel restrictions initially at the start of the pandemic but it’s not just communist states who have tried this, Australia and New Zealand, albeit with differing success.

I would potentially be prepared to forgo my right to cross an actual border or to have to quarantine either side of it but to be stopped driving 7 miles to my nearest decent supermarket just because it's in a different local authority is madness...

*I've had a look at the English numbers last night and even with more stuff shut there they have stabilised but not dropped. It's kinda depressing.

Maybe it'll get better with one more week or maybe we'll have to get used to the idea of some school closures. *

The alternative view would be that no matter what measures are in place the epidemic progresses regardless. eg NW has had measures similar to tier 3 all Summer/Autumn but has increasing excess deaths nevertheless. London and SE etc have had most relaxed measures and have had no excess or even progression in that direction.

I'm just not convinced - if people are flouting the home visit rules, what good is increasing draconian travel restrictions going to do? What wax said - if you have to force compliance as a govt, you are losing the argument.

Looking at hospital admissions they are clearly declining. So surely level 4 is disproportionate on that basis? It does just seem to be based on positive tests, which were lower yesterday, we will probably have a high number today for dramatic effect...further justification for very draconian measures. So fed up.

If. SG said to us the population look numbers are rising in some areas and we have drilled down into the data and here’s what we have found

After 9 months you would think they would be able to have worked out how to,do this

Or maybe they have and don’t want to, say

I would have more confidence in my government if they said this not just constant threats to us as being a bad bunch of people

Just tell us what is actually going on

Meanwhile Boris is doing the SNP's job for them

The numbers are always lower on Mondays and Sunday and then catch up during the week. So yes today should be a bad numbers day.

I can only suppose that people that are doing against rules stuff and getting sick are not reporting they are doing such and saying they must've caught it in the supermarket etc.

@iquitelikenormalityafterall

Looking at hospital admissions they are clearly declining. So surely level 4 is disproportionate on that basis? It does just seem to be based on positive tests, which were lower yesterday, we will probably have a high number today for dramatic effect...further justification for very draconian measures. So fed up.

Exactly this

I think people forget that lots of people die all the time. It's sad for all those involved, but it's a fact of life. Very few people without already having health conditions (diagnosed) have died. Yes some people have longer term health issues on the back of covid, but again, this is a common result from any viral infection.

We still are not being told how many deaths and illnesses are becasue of covid. The NHS is not overwhelmed, we are going against WHO guidance and the simple answer is that none of this really changes anything. Last lock down was beneficial in the way that we had no idea what was going to happen plus it was heading into the spring and summer where levels would drop anyway. This time we are heading into winter so using the stats they use it's not going to get better, but that doesn't mean that anyone is doing anything wrong.

From my pov it doesn't really change things as I'm not really going anywhere anyway, but it's the principle.

"And I hear it’s great in private schools, where they have live online lessons and tutorials via zoom etc for hours every day."

This is what's missing from blended learning or the type of schooling we had in the first lockdown. Worksheets uploaded every morning with no explanation or video explaining what to do is no good. A live class giving children a chance to engage and ask questions would be much better!
I'm a student myself, my course has moved online and we have one live lecture a week (via zoom) and it's far superior to the classes where they just upload some PowerPoint slides and there's no chance for interaction.
I have a primary school child, obviously the level of work is fine for the majority of adults but we don't understand the methods teachers use. I confused mine on more than one occasion trying to help.

Also watching Stirling carefully, we live in a town which comes under Falkirk but DD attends catchment high school in Stirling so would be travelling from a Tier 3 to 4 every. I know education is excluded but for all other purposes she would not be allowed to move between areas so it will feel strange advising her that school is still 'safe' when everything else is deemed otherwise.

Well @Dinnafashyersel the numbers decreased when we were all locked down in spring. The draconian lockdowns in China stopped their spread. So if you lock people in their houses it clearly works. The question is where do you draw the line? What is a reasonable compromise between freedom and safety? Is doing a little bit like tier 3 in England just pointless economic pain?
I think finding a reasonable compromise we can sustain until vaccine is a fine balancing act. If you look at the numbers of infected people it looks like tier 3 has stabilised the spread so numbers are not rising. Maybe tier 4 in the west would do the job of making them drop? Maybe everyone would go to hairdressers and shops in Edinburgh and tier 4 in the West would achieve nothing? I just hope whoever advises the Scottish gov is competent.

Is going into T4 about containment so we can have a 48 hour break to eat Christmas dinner and squeeze a year’s worth of hugs in with family and friends? I’m happy to give that a miss if we can stay on a reasonable tier level

Agree with this, I'd personally rather forego Xmas for one year than have T4 restrictions now. Although I suspect many people will break the restrictions and have a semi normal Christmas with much more mixing regardless of restrictions and it will be impossible to police. It makes sense they factor in bringing down the prevalence before Christmas regardless. There is likely to be a spike in cases after Christmas and then when asymptomatic people return to work/education.

@anon444877

I can only suppose that people that are doing against rules stuff and getting sick are not reporting they are doing such and saying they must've caught it in the supermarket etc.

You also might want to consider those who've got it from kids have almost certainly caught it at school but decided to act daft and avoid going for testing, to avoid isolating for a fortnight.

People aren't respecting the travel rules at all. My SIL is constantly up and down the road from T2 to T3. My friend is currently travelling around the NC500 in her van too. I live in a tourist spot and we have had people from bloody England visit.

Interesting to see whether Edinburgh goes to tier 2. Numbers have been low in Lothian from the previous 3 days’ figures. But conveniently these have not yet fed through to the overall data.

@Galacticat

People aren't respecting the travel rules at all. My SIL is constantly up and down the road from T2 to T3. My friend is currently travelling around the NC500 in her van too. I live in a tourist spot and we have had people from bloody England visit.

Agree locking people in their houses and throwing away the key might well be effective if done soon enough. However that is not where we are now and anything short of that doesn't look to have measurable effect. Between 700-1000 excess deaths at home per week in the UK all summer long despite low Covid levels just from semi-locking down the health service looks like a very high cost from the current approach.

Latest weeks's ONS E&W death figures have excess deaths at home accounting for 1,000 of the 1,500 total excess. (For Scotland, reported last Wednesday, excess deaths went down to 133 from 175 the previous week).

Scotland also showing persistent excess deaths at home of around 100 per week and not attributable to Covid.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52214177

Pesky bloody English tourists (tbc) spending their Sterling in our Covid-free country.

🙄