Fears For Tiers

[Bytheloch]

Thread #567 Still here, getting through each day one 2M step away at a time. November into December 2020 here we go...

I think if the (SNP) Leader of West Dun Council is on the radio this morning defending why they might need to go into level 4 then it's prob happening for Greater Glasgow and the Lanarkshires.

What has me twitchy is what they do about Inverclyde (cause it is SUBSTANTIALLY lower than the rest of GGC and has been separated out) and A&B because they then have towns which are all fairly accessible by public transport to those in level 4. Although I guess at the point the whole of west central is locked down then that applies to Edinburgh too!

I think if they leave Inverclyde in level 3 and A&B in level 2 then they will try to do something to tighten up the travel restrictions stuff. They could make hospitality businesses check for proof of address or something? A&B's numbers are continuing to fall - lower than Moray now - but there's been a cafe and a restaurant closed in the last 48hrs in Helensburgh due to confirmed staff cases...

Anxious in Argyll!

I think if Glasgow, Lanarkshire and surroundings go into tier 4 today sooner or later the east will follow because people will just go east to shop and it will spread. It's too small an area to really contain it unless you do something draconian.

Selfishly, im jumping on to query the thoughts for Christmas. Currently in tier 3 likely entering tier 4. Wanted to travel to parents at Christmas who are tier 2. Yay or nae?

What a brilliant thread title. That is all

Thread title’s got me singing “everybody wants to rule the world”...

I've had a look at the English numbers last night and even with more stuff shut there they have stabilised but not dropped. It's kinda depressing.

Exactly it's pointless killing businesses while the biggest spreader (schools) is still open

Can someone help me with the timeline.
Aberdeen locked down for 3 weeks and it worked brought the rates down. Was that before or after the schools went back?
They also have a 2 week October break did that do anything to numbers?

Glasgow locked down on 1st September, 3 weeks after schools went back.

@kleew1

Selfishly, im jumping on to query the thoughts for Christmas. Currently in tier 3 likely entering tier 4. Wanted to travel to parents at Christmas who are tier 2. Yay or nae?

At this point I think it's unlikely you'll get back down to tier 2 and officially be allowed to travel but my DD will be coming home for Christmas - there's no way I'm leaving her alone... Hopefully common sense will prevail, cause it's not just about Christmas it's about the shortest day and needing a break from all the darkness - we need company and nice food and presents!

@Callisto1

I think if Glasgow, Lanarkshire and surroundings go into tier 4 today sooner or later the east will follow because people will just go east to shop and it will spread. It's too small an area to really contain it unless you do something draconian.

I heard someone say they'll just go to Livingston (from Lanarkshire).

I think it's becoming the unpopular opinion but I just really hope schools stay open. I can just about cope with everything else.

There are different ways of doing things and adapting but obviously it’s unpalatable; they could establish road blocks like they have in regions in Spain to stop/reduce nipping over to the hairdresser in a lower tier.

Fucking scunnered in East Renfrewshire. Me and DH were meant to be going away for a night for my birthday at the end of the month, would have been our first since DS was born (he’s 3).

My mental health was getting a lot better after I joined a local gym but that’ll be going. Informal childcare not allowed unless you’re a key worker (but paid for childcare is fine, as with so many other things during all this) so if I follow that rule I won’t be able to work.

@Jodri

There are different ways of doing things and adapting but obviously it’s unpalatable; they could establish road blocks like they have in regions in Spain to stop/reduce nipping over to the hairdresser in a lower tier.

Not really as there is currently no law that stops private citizens going where they want and the police do their job with public co-operation.

This is why they are trying to put a travel restrictions into legislation. Slippery slope imo

Personally school is the absolutely last thing I want shut, but if blended learning would avoid tier 4 than maybe that's a compromise worth making?

@Sturmundcalm I'm in Helensburgh. Very interested to see what she does regarding us

@Sturmundcalm unfortunately where my parents live is very covid secret service so i fear of a lynch mob being sent if i venture up and citizens arrests made. Would like some clear guidance at least in all of this... Ugh!

If the issue is largely non compliance on household visits, nothing will eradicate it.

If we need to make travel illegal to keep the virus down, we'd have to be at hospital capacity in very short order for that to be worth the slippery slope state incursion, I would not like to see this at this level of cases.

We need to limp through to the vaccines being available.

biking Aberdeen's lockdown was in August, so schools were off for most of it still. We have only been back a couple of weeks from October holidays, so I am not sure that any changes would have filtered through yet even.

I honestly don't see schools being closed anywhere. The deal was that schools would be kept open at all costs.

@kleew1 - yeah, fair enough. There are two reasons the "guidance" rather than law drives me nuts:

• everyone has their own interpretation of it, and lots of folk are v aggressive that their interpretation is right(!)
• it's not open to the level of formal scrutiny and challenge that laws would be.

I do think we're on a bit of a slippery slope in terms of decisions being made without sufficient evidence provided. My dad is one of the folk who regularly mentions the unused SECC... And while I'm not there, I'm not at all convinced that the information we're being given is being rigourously enough challenged - e.g. actual hospital admissions/ICU usage/excess deaths compared to past five years. There's an awful lot of headlines that focus on worst case scenarios!

I agree @Callisto1 if blended learning meant not going into tier 4 I'd suck it up as it would mean my husband could still work

@RJnomore1

Blended learning is very much a thing which has worked for tertiary and vocational learning for a very long time.

I’m sure thats true for adults who have chosen their courses and are motived to succeed.

And I hear it’s great in private schools, where they have live online lessons and tutorials via zoom etc for hours every day.

It’s less successful for many state school, high school pupils. They are too old for their parents to “ force them “ to study and mostly too immature to do it themselves.

Many parents are not able to help their kids with higher and advanced higher level work. It’s not like doing P3 maths or P5 reading.

Plus data protection means parents can’t see what they are supposed to be doing on Google classrooms.

Kids who are sitting highers and advanced highers have prelims in just a few school weeks. They have already lost a month of teaching time plus more for those who have been SI because they had symptoms or a bubble burst.

If schools close it will be a disaster for three two entire years groups and will put them at a HUGE disadvantage compared to private schools.

I’ve been told the timescale might be from 6am Friday.

Yes, exactly this. It’s so so much more than childcare, it’s a lot of futures at risk. Education is immensely important. Online learning can never be a replacement for in-person teaching. Also I think a lot of teenage kids will meet up anyway? So might as well be at school.

Someone mentioned the SECC, it's being used for routine appointments. Just to space people out and avoid crowding at the main hospitals.
I saw a dermatologist in it.

Yip people in Lanarkshire will most definitely travel to Livingston and even Edinburgh. So I can get the logic of treating the Central Belt as one.
Did someone not mention before on here during the Glasgow lockdown folks travelling to the pubs in Helensburgh?

Putting travel restrictions in law is a very slippery slope.
I've had someone shout in my ear for years about SNP being communist dictators....

I have a kid who’s sitting highers this year and an extensive background working with young people our educational system has failed and I completely disagree @S00LA

It would require reshaping our state system but that sorely needs done. It’s been a shot show for years and we are failing these kids badly. Tbh the pandemic is just the cherry on the icing on the cake.

Making them sit in classrooms with highly stressed teachers for 30 hours a week is doing nothing to help their educational attainment, trust me.

Just looking at the latest numbers (tableau is doing up to the 13th)

East lothian is 60/100k
Edinburgh is 86
West Lothian is a fair bit worse at 158
Inverclyde is 101
Renfreshire 241
Glasgow 275
South ayrshire 159
Stirling 167
North Lan 237
South Lan 229

I wonder if West Lothian is at risk too given its high rate and border with the Lanarkshires? Hospitals are shared with the rest of the Lothians which are doing better but obviously people travelling to Livingston is a risk as folk have mentioned

Also I think a lot of teenage kids will meet up anyway? So might as well be at school.

That is a very good point, thinking of the large groups of kids in parks during summer. And they'd be more likely to be in each other's houses in this weather.

Shit we are fucked!

I'm just glad the Boris is saying the 4 nations need to have one set of rules for Christmas.
BTW the last set of figures I saw Glasgows infection rate wasn't any worse than Londons.