Second referendum part 2

[Gighasmokedhalibutisawesome]

Any appetite for a continuance or have I missed the new thread?
There was quite a heated squabble respectful exchange of views so I am sure there is more to be said......

EU nationals didn't get to vote on Brexit.

Gruffalo, I'd love to borrow that crystal ball some time when you're not using it, thanks

also, would Scottish students be paying overseas student fees at RUK universities? Those are steep.

"One of the reasons I voted Remain was that in the unlikely event of the SNP winning independence the EU might keep us safe from Sturgeon. Failing that I am tempted to flee to either England or Eire."

Safe from Sturgeon doing what? Partaking in a race to the bottom, Tory-stylee, with disabled people having benefits slashed and mentally ill people being asked why they haven't killed themselves yet?

Or is it her outward looking, inclusive beliefs you are worried about?

No-one wants a referendum now, they want one in 18 months time...

But there is no guarantee the Brexit negotiations will be completed in that time.

This 18 months is designed to put huge pressure on the UK government while they negotiate. It also allows the SNP to canvass and campaign relentlessly while the UK government is diverted elsewhere.

It also provides an opportunity to contrast and compare. Brexit negotiations are not going to be pretty. There are going to be spats and problems and harsh words spoken and lots of toys thrown out of prams, threats and counter threats - there is already.

Tusk or Junckers or Nicola's pal Guy Verhofstadt (who I loathe with every fibre of my being, but that's another story). Not to mention leaders and MEPS from other European countries ... can comment ad hoc. and they do.

The rest of the EU are not pleased the UK is leaving. We are one of their biggest net contributors and the EU is not in good shape economically. The euro has not served many smaller countries well -there are more 'taking out' than 'putting in' and one of their richest members is leaving, and those queuing up to join are poor.

So while the UK government wades into unchartered waters with protracted negotiations with 27 other countries, the Scottish government smoothly prepares for Independence - and the spin is - look how shambolic they are (UK Gov) and look how slick we are (Scot Gov).

Don't forget they've had one crack at it already and they will know where they went wrong. They didn't address the currency issue properly, the economic projections were fantasy etc. and people were able to see through it. Nationalistic fervour wasn't enough to carry the day, but they are such a canny bunch I doubt they will make the same mistake this time.

If they really wanted the best for Scotland , they would wait it out and see what happens in a post Brexit world and indeed, whether the EU in its present form is even able to survive.

Just because Geert Wilders didn't 'win' in The Netherlands, everyone is slapping each other on the back and congratulating themselves that the rise of populism and euroscepticism on the continent has been halted, hoorah!

I find that view incredibly complacent. Rutte lost 8 seats and had go much further right in terms of policy and pledge, to retain his majority. Wilders meanwhile gained 5 seats to become the 2nd party in the Netherlands. Just because it didn't break through, doesn't mean it has gone away.

Euroscepticism is still on the rise, even in Germany, Eurosceptic parties are set to make gains - which five years ago would have been unthinkable.

She's calling for this 'in 18 months' time' referendum now for one reason and one reason only - political opportunism. The SNP have seen their chance and they are going to take it come hell or high water.

or is it perhaps her cavalier attitude to being able to afford to help the disabled and mentally ill? Oh yes, the question of where we'll find the money. That'll be what terrifies me:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/scottish-economy-independence-referendum-oil-price

'A plunge in the oil price since the 2014 referendum and a budget deficit appear to make Scotland’s finances less than rosy'

'As the IFS noted, Scotland is insulated from the consequences of its spending being higher than its tax revenues because the UK government hands Edinburgh a block grant each year that covers non-devolved items such as defence and social security. An independent Scotland would be responsible for its own finances and could not rely on North Sea revenues to balance the books. There would be pressure for taxes to go up and for spending to be cut.'

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/12200495/IFS-Scotland-to-get-billions-of-English-income-tax.html

'Scottish voters would have to decide whether higher inflation and squeezed living standards were a price worth paying.'

From the guardian Nyx, and the independent IFS. Not a conservative big business supporting newspaper.

I don't mind Sturgeon's soundbites about inclusiveness!

Ok, and if it all went pear shaped, you would vote for a party with different policies. That is how it should work and how it does work in other countries. Normal countries. The government of the day would be held to account because that's what happens. We would have a Scottish media of our own to report on Scottish matters and policies and opposition. The Scottish people would be able to weigh up options normally, without a different and bigger country having the only say over Scottish business. What's the problem? Even the unionists in 2014 had to admit through gritted teeth that Scotland could of course be independent and could even be successful.

She is calling it for that timescale for the reasons Nyx and Itsall have mentioned and because in 18 months to 2 years the Brexit outcome should be clear enough to give Scottish voters the chance to vote before the UK is out. Also to stop TMay using Scotland resources and EU nationals in Scotland as part of her negotiations. I don't think she has the right as I believe Scotland is a country not a region of the UK. Our resources is all she wants.

The EU commenting on and flirting with Scotland to wrong foot Brexit negotiations is politics and one of the few things I find funny about it all. It makes me think Scotland would have a good chance of EU or EFTA then discuss EU or whatever we want after independence.

We are heading for inflation and squeezed living standards now. For independence it would at least be worth something.

• are all she wants

It looks like Spain wont veto, and if it wanted to it couldn't prevent Scotland joining as a special arrangement:

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/would-spain-block-scottish-membership-of-eu

Is there anyone anti Indy and pro EU? I realise that isn't an option anymore due to Brexit. I hear a lot of pro Brexit and anti Indy voices here.

I'm anti independence and pro-EU...

Calyx you didn't read the articles - they are saying Scottish living standards are currently insulated from macro-shocks like Brexit thanks to the RUK tax payer.

Scottish living standards are insured in the UK, they have better protection than RUK tax payers from the economic effects of Brexit.

only somebody who really didn't care about making the Scottish poor worse off would vote for independence and turn their back on the fantastic insurance being provided by the UK...

If you want a better deal for the Scottish poor now, let's get the SNP to use their tax raising powers - this is where the debate should be right now, not the sideshow of independence.

I did read them but am thinking that Brexit will mean rUK won't be able or willing to buffer Scotland from that one.

Anyone want the crystal ball after me?

Does anyone know what's going to happen to the Barnett formula after Brexit? There are a lot of calls for it to be scrapped, for Scotland to have a reduced income. If Scotland wanted to keep the current agreement, could it be guaranteed? Or would this be a decision for WM?

Sideshow of independence. Did you notice the title of the thread? It is the whole issue of Scottish independence and all the issues around it we are trying to discuss.

Hmm, yes, I can see Scotland being given a better cushion from brexit economic shocks by rUK.

No, wait. Really? You are very optimistic

Nyx, it is not me saying this, it's an independent think tank of policy expert economists as I've linked too - but well done for deliberately avoiding that. Just don't tell me you're in any way helping the poor by voting for independence that is an absolute lie and you can present no experts to back up the view that Scotland will raise more tax and spend more money on the poor when independent.

Not I would expect assurances on the Barnett formula to given as it's key - I can't see it being scrapped, the yes vote are talking that up to try and undermine the extremely robust economic case against independence.

Calyx we don't need a crystal ball - you're conjecturing Barnett would change based on nothing, whereas it's for damn sure it would be lost an independent Scotland. Where are your models for how this money would be recovered and which taxes would rise?

Powers from EU such as about agriculture and fisheries which are supposed to be returned to Scotland if we leave the EU are being eyed by the Conservatives. Again for those who believe in Scotland as a country and not a region this is appalling and and a clear sign that Scotland's assets are to be seen as the UKs. Scotland will not be cushioned or protected but used. And the Conservative led UK is not in the habit of investment for the future but sells assets to put money in the pockets of the 1%

Nolotterywin I don't have models as I have said before, I'm not an economist. Most of us voters are not economists. We are voters.

Be careful hitting your head on that desk

It certainly isn't for the benefit of the elites that I would vote independence. Currently the Scottish government are spending money to mitigate the bedroom tax effects - helping the poorest and the disabled. They didn't raise tax but they refused to lower the threshold for the highest payers- look at the outcry (but no u-turn you notice). Currently they are damned if they do and damned if they don't. I do believe they would be far more socially responsible but on the other hand they are not far left. They are centre left. They would continue to try to be sensible. But with independence we could vote for a party with completely different policies on tax and everything else if we saw fit.

I did post an ft article before and it was immediately dismissed as a puff piece