Where are all my No-mates?

[HamletsSister]

In despair. Absolutely in despair. Do we have to go through this again? And with such a long lead up to the referendum? Really? What happened to the settled will of the Scottish people?

@statisticallychallenged Will you help me get through this again? (Was Roseformeplease then).

I'm sure we'll get better local info about voting as the weeks go by.

Haven't had the chance to do it yet bit will get to it asap. The full figures have only just been released.

Here's the first analysis I've seen of the results. Even adding all the independents to the SNP and the Greens they don't get over 50%.

All the independent transfers in my ward went to the tories. A few others I've looked at it was a mix of transfers to the other parties.

Spoiled ballot papers only 1.9% too.

sorry this is the link

Wow. Only 32% of first preference votes for the Nationalists. If that's repeated in the GE there is no way on earth they can keep bannging on about their "mandate".

Although quite worried about my own consittuency after looking at breakdown - 13.5k first pref SNP, 11.5k first preference COnservative, 7k Lib Dem. All the polls say that the Lib Dem candidate stands the best chance of ousting SNP (East Dunbartonshire) and so we have to hope at least some of the Conservative switches to Lib Dem. HAving said that there's a 5.6k vote for independent candidate which won't be relevant at GE.

Fingers crossed but it's all looking pretty positive.

2012 local - SNP 32.3, LAB 31.4, CON 13.27

So, at 32.3 for the SNP in 2017, they've stayed completely the same as 2012? That's very disappointing for them

In my council they got less votes overall than the Tories but the same number of seats. It's not a huge difference though.

Should really condense this into one post - look at the areas where SNP isn't the largest first preference : Aberdeenshire, Angus, Dumfries and Galloway, East Ren, Edinburgh, Moray, Perth & Kinross, Borders, S Ayrshire, Stirling......

and v v close in East Lothian. Bye bye Alex Salmond?

The biggest surge in support for the SNP was post 2012 so they've done very poorly indeed to remain stagnent. Maybe someone should point that out? :o :o

From polls i've seen the "Yes" vote hasn't really shifted that much from the 45 in indyref. So we have to presume that there are Yes voters who aren't backing the SNP/Greens, either in the other parties or that were voting for independent candidates in the council elections.

The 1st pref are much more in line with the polling for SNP and Conservatives than the wiki figures I quoted yesterday, which look like seat percentages. Interesting that Labour vote is consistently above opinion polling.

I was providing nerves distraction for my Nat 5 teen this morning so we were looking at likely seat changes.

Moray (Angus Robertson) was won by Con but there was a big chunk of Independents. Most of the Independents are concentrated in the North and are LibDemish like Orkney and Shetland - I don't think it makes sense to add them to the SNP for the GE.

We also looked at East Renf which was won comfortably by Con. Here the lower ranking SNP candidates tended to lose out to Independents, so I don't think they will go SNP at the GE either.

It's very annoying that the data on each council's website isn't more standardised. I'd really like to see details of the Aberdeenshire transfers from the independents and lib dems, but can't find them yet.

The East Renfrewshire website has loads of detail.

I'm going to have to vote Labour in my area and to be honest the underlying "I'm not a unionist", wont sing the national anthem, In the event of nuclear war let's immediately declare a bank holiday Corbyn and "IRA freedom fighters" and lets pose under a hammer and sickle and syrian regime flag McDonnel are making me want to puke.
The SNP are clearly their bedfellows, but I don't think there is any hope of Libdem or tory where i live. It would be a wasted vote.

If it had been a GE then it would be CON for Stirling depending on where the boundaries fall - I should know this but will have a look later.

I wonder if there will be others voting Labour in the council elections that will see the tactical voting for the Tories and decide to also do so.

I know I exist in a No voter echo chamber on social media so hear of a lot of people voting tactically, but it would be interesting to know what your more moderate No voter is thinking.

In a way it's quite good having the local elections so close to give us a hand with the tactical voting. In 2015 I had no idea which way to vote and like other No voters was taken a bit by surprise at the scale of the vote for the SNP.

This time we're more informed.

Not that SNP really care about Westminster seats anyway. They have a massive over representation in Westminster in terms of the people of SCotland but they don't seem interested at all in actually using it.

There are a few I'd love to see lose their seats as I don't think they are earning their money. But tbh we can probably say the same for a large number of MPs regardless of their party.

Tinfoil there are 2 GE constituencies for East Dunbartonshire so you would need to look at ward level to get a better idea of the Con/LibDem/Independent dynamic. I suspect in one the tactical No vote is Con and in the other LibDem. Couldn't find figures when we looked earlier.

i know my DH who is a die-hard labour voter is at least asking the question about whether he's better voting tory given the swing anyway, and also because we want Corbyn out of the labour leadership asap. Not sure how representative he is - hardline no voter, but also would vote for a turnip with a labour sticker :)

That thing of picking your most important issue again.

That's another reason for me not wanting to vote Labour. I want rid of Corbyn too.

We all know it's going to be a Tory landslide anyway across the UK so that makes me feel not so bad about voting Tory.

These things invariably go in cycles anyway which you realise as you get older. Without necessarily doing anything the natural cycle of things is that a group of people get fed up and switch allegiance and the balance gets tipped. That (hopefully) could be what we are seeing with the SNP. There will be an element of the floating vote that will just think that they've had their chance and it's someone else's turn now.

Looking at that list I need to vote labour? (Midlothian) is that right. Can't bear the thought of voting for Corbyn but it looks like it's the only way to avoid snp?

I have a bit of dilemma. I've gone through the ward level data for first preferences; the SNP were first, then Labour, then the Tories, but there wasn't that much difference between Labour and the Tories. The momentum is definitely with the Tories, perhaps more so after the council elections when it was made clear that this is where the unionist vote is concentrating. The SNP won by a mile, so the likelihood of unseating them either way is slim, so do I take a chance on Labour, who are declining but still marginally ahead, or do I go with the Tories who are in the ascendancy (with the added bonus of increasing the Tory vote share and undermining the 'Scotland hates Tories' argument for independence)?

Someone asked what a moderate no might say, so here goes. I live in the Borders, so the prospect of dealing with two separate countries is very real. Where I am, a lot of the more nationalistic sentiments I don't recognise.

What I absolutely can't abide, and am embarrassed by, is when I read comments again and again which focus on SNP politicians personal characteristics. I hate reading thing calling Sturgeon "wee jimmy crankie" or Salmond "smug". They seem to attract a really specific kind of bullying. I don't like their policies. I don't want independence. (I didn't want Brexit either).

I am not making any accusations, it would be pointless to screen shot and post the proof.

I don't want to a divided country, already I am reading about a rise in sectarianism. And no, I am not saying it is on one side only. But if you want better together, let's be better than that.