Where are all my No-mates?

[HamletsSister]

In despair. Absolutely in despair. Do we have to go through this again? And with such a long lead up to the referendum? Really? What happened to the settled will of the Scottish people?

@statisticallychallenged Will you help me get through this again? (Was Roseformeplease then).

I was watching the local elections with interest - some of you might remember me posting on the 'old' indyref threads .

I'm not surprised to see the surge in support for unionist parties and think the SNP would be very foolish indeed not to pay attention to this.

But there has not been a surge in support for unionist parties The seats the Tories won, were pretty much the seats that Labour lost...

Is Labour a Unionist party though?
They haven't been clear enough since the referendum.

I was also reading today about SNP voters who don't want independence. Puzzling but there you go.

It's a sad state of affairs imo that the constitution dominates political energies. I wouldn't have chosen it.

They won 276 seats, compared to 112 in 2012. It's not as many as the SNP but it's still a surge in support. The collapse of the Labour vote is partly responsible but it's not the whole story.

^They won 276 seats, compared to 112 in 2012. It's not as many as the SNP but it's still a surge in support
The collapse of the Labour vote is partly responsible but it's not the whole story.^

Labour lost 133 seats, it pretty much is the whole story.

Belle from the campaigning I saw when out and about, the Tories were positioning themselves as strongly pro-union. I expect that attracted some votes.

Still can't find any details of the vote share, as opposed to seats won. Anyone seen anything?

I'd be interested to see that too Wankers, haven't spotted anything myself.

As far as I can find out, the vote share in the various elections has been:

2012 local - SNP 32.3, LAB 31.4, CON 13.27
2015 GE - SNP 50, LAB 24.3, CON 14.9
2016 HE - SNP 46.5, LAB 22, CON 22
2017 local - ?

In my council it was: SNP 34.8, CON 37.2% and I didn't work out labour - I could go back and get the data again but it's a bit pointless.

According to wiki
2017 local - SNP 35.13, LAB 21.35, CON 22.49

My Council has published 1st pref totals for each candidate in each ward and the iteration they were elected on. It is in theory possible to guesstimate GE shares if 1st pref is equivalenced to FPTP vote.

I saw a tweet that suggested that the numbers should all be out properly tomorrow, so people can start crunching them then...

It is in theory possible to guesstimate GE shares if 1st pref is equivalenced to FPTP vote. Exactly what I was trying to do :)

There is a big independent candidate element in some areas though so you'd need to look at that separately for those seats.

interesting figures then howabout It would suggest a modest increase for SNP since 2012 and a big increase for CON since 2012. However there is only a small increase for CON using the results of the Holyrood election and a big drop for SNP using those and the GE figures. Different type of election right enough so not as meaningful necessarily.

Thanks ItsAll maybe some fuller details for us to pore over from tomorrow then.

Interesting article here from John Curtice:

blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2017/04/a-tory-revival-and-a-yet-more-polarised-scotland/

Interesting flippin although I reckon that Davidson has to come up with some centre ground appealing policies for Scotland to seal the shift, she rightly rails against the SNP for complaining about Tory policies they can fix, so I'd like to see her doing a bit of differentiation too.

IF the Labour Party get their act together for the next general election the gains could reverse, plenty of us holding our noses whilst voting for May's party and will have more trouble doing so if there is a better labour team at the next one.

Yes, I agree that it could shift yet again with a revived Labour Party.

I think the Tory strategy of positioning themselves as strongly pro-union has paid off in terms of increased vote share.

No doubt the election up here is going to be dominated by Brexit and Indyref. I think it's possible that some SNP seats may even go Conservative - that would have unthinkable 20 years ago.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some Tory seats - it depends if the No vote consolidates behind them which I think could happen in some seats.

It also depends what happens with the Brexit favouring yes voters, which I think is also a decent number of people (I have seen figures but can't remember them offhand) - will some people who prioritise brexit over independence skip to conservative, or will they assume such a big majority Tory that they'll stay SNP.

Same probably true the other way - what will no voting remainers do? I'm in that camp and genuinely don't know who the heck to vote for. Taking the constitutional questions out of the equation doesn't help much either, they're all chuffing awful in some way!

Stat if you're a No/Remain does that not make you a LibDem?

My constituency is looking like a 3 horse race SNP/Lab/Con with the SNP a nose in front but the LibDems holding the balance. If all the LibDems who defected to the SNP in 2015 go "home" then that makes it look like a much harder task for the SNP. If they choose No over Remain and go either Lab or Con then whoever they choose could win.

It does come down to probably picking the most important issue to you - they are all bad in different ways this time.

I'm a no voting remainer but picking no over remain. Brexit is bad news, but I don't think another Brexit referendum will do anything more than re-ignite bad feeling. Also, although I voted remain, I would've preferred the EU to stay as a free trade association and I still think that is the likeliest outcome of negotiations, despite all the pre talks hot air being spouted.

I think I'm leaning the same way nolotterywin, whilst I'm utterly unimpressed it's not going to change whereas indyref 2 is a distinct possibility.

Libdem are probably the closest in general - I'm fairly centrist - but their vote imploded in my constituency so much that I think it would be a wasted vote.

Yes same here - it seems clear that Tim Farron is putting a lot of people off, or perhaps the legacy of the coalition is still unfairly haunting then, I've been surprised we haven't seen lib dem gains here.

I'm a no/remain voter and probably even before brexit/indyref i would have classed myself as a lib dem.

However when it comes to voting I'm pretty much a floating voter. I think I've voted for every party in the past apart from the tories or UKIP.

The Scottish greens and the SNP will never ever get my vote again.

I've just been looking at the results in my ward and it's looking like voting Tory is the way to keep out the SNP. The independent candidate did well , but looking at the transfer report all his transfers also went to the Tories.

I cba to crunch the numbers for the rest of the council area, but in one ward the tories were on 61% of the first preference votes!!

I'm annoyed about Brexit, but it's happening so I just need to deal with it. Me voting Lib Dem in Scotland is pointless. However I can influence the likelihood of indyref2 happening.

So I'll be voting Tory with a flourish and a big fuck you to anyone who has ever used the words "red tory".

If those that I suspect stalk me on here are reading this then, there you go, your opinion of me is confirmed!!

Well done trixy!!! Can I send you a blue rosette in the post? ... ah too soon. OK my bad.

Hi, I have been following this thread since it started and want to say thanks to everyone for their analyses of the situation. It has buoyed me up to hear there are others who feel they same way as me.
I am also a Lib Dem No/Remainer who has voted for Labour and Green in the past, and bit the bullet at the last Holywood election and gave a second vote to Tory to make a stand against the SNP.
Has anyone seen any analysis of each Westminster seat and whether they are worthy of tactical voting. Our seat used to be a safe Labour until the last GE when it won an SNP landslide. Don't know how it stands now.

it's an interesting election because the fact that it's so clear in the polls and from the locals that there is going to be a swing to the tories away from labour may very well reduce the number of people tactically voting labour in many constituencies. There's an obvious Corbyn factor at play that means the labour % will fall this time so you can take the last GE results as a high water mark and take off at least 10%.