Second referendum announced!

[Isadora2007]

😳

Will your vote change next time?

Do you really believe they've modelled it? I don't think they have. I'd hope they have, but the more I hear them speak the more I think they haven't. And I have no idea why they are pushing on with this hard Brexit bollocks on such a narrow margin.

Financial services companies are already moving functions to Dublin. Others are looking at the continent. Car manufacturers are talking about moving. They could calm this down by trying for single market access, but that might involve letting foreigners in and the tabloids would slate them, so off to the cliff edge we go. Making sure to wave our flags and bang on about Royal yachts and the empire.

the UK is looking like it is going to become an economic basket case.

How, where and on what planet does the UK look like it is going to become an 'economic basket case'? On what are you basing your rhetorical statement? On detailed financial analysis or just posting a sweeping statement on a forum?

Contrary to your rhetoric, the UK economy isn't going to hell in a handcart. The sky hasn't fallen in and the bottom hasn't dropped out.

Our trade with the EU single market has fallen consistently, while our trade with other countries (you know, out there in the great wide word) has increased and that is a trend that is set to continue post Brexit.

44% of UK exports in goods and services went to other countries in the EU in 2015—£220 billion out of £510 billion total exports. That share has been declining, because exports to other countries have been increasing at a faster rate.

The European Commission itself says that “over the next ten to 15 years, 90% of world demand will be generated outside Europe”.

53% of our imports into the UK came from other countries in the EU in 2015. That proportion hasn’t changed that much over the past 16 years.

We have been consistently far more important to the rest of the EU countries than they have been to us, in terms of a trading partner.

So what precisely is 'basket case' about us freeing ourselves up to trade with the rest of the world including other EU countries, unless of course the Germans want to stop selling us their cars. As the UK is their second biggest market, I think they may well have something to say about that.

All these predictions of doom and gloom about the UK economy post Brexit are utterly unfounded, but they are spouted out nonetheless.

But what is especially amazing is how there are those on here who will argue that the outlook for the UK that has left a political/fiscal construct after just four decades of membership, is so much more bleak than the prospect of a tiny Scotland after three centuries of union.

great, wide world obviously!

'On detailed financial analysis or just posting a sweeping statement on a forum'

Interesting choice of words - point me in the direction of the detailed financial analysis, the due diligence the government has undertaken in the past 9 mths and I'll happily wade through the ground work they've done so far.

Financial services companies are already moving functions to Dublin. Others are looking at the continent. Car manufacturers are talking about moving. They could calm this down by trying for single market access, but that might involve letting foreigners in and the tabloids would slate them, so off to the cliff edge we go. Making sure to wave our flags and bang on about Royal yachts and the empire.

Companies come, companies go - some will move to the continent some won't.

The UK isn't going to fall apart overnight because it's left the fucking EU!

Honestly, the way some carry on over a decision to quit a political/fiscal union - as if the end of the world is about to happen, is just ridiculous.

The EU is full of flaws and problems and it really doesn't work on so many levels. It's expensive, cumbersome, undemocratic and deeply flawed and ineffective and yet there are those on here who seem to venerate it, to the extent that not being part of it, guarantees a poverty stricken future full of gloom and doom.

There are 196 'countries' on planet earth and only 28 of them are members of the EU. And most of those who are in it, with no disrespect, are in it for the money. They rely on the contributions of wealthy members like Germany, the UK, France, Netherlands etc. to subsidise the smaller impoverished nations, but the terrible irony is that the insistence on signing up to the euro is what has impoverished those nations even further.

I thank God every single day that the UK never signed up to it and we retained the pound. That has saved us economically and anyone here who even suggests otherwise is talking out of their arse.

The EU a giant monolith of bureaucracy, expense and legislation that can't even sign off its own accounts, year on year. It isn't the saviour of nation states, it is the enemy of them, and therein lies the irony of tiny Scotland full of nationalist fervour wanting to sign up to it. It will eat you up and spit you out before breakfast.

There is dissatisfaction and blatant euroscepticism with the EU in virtually every member state and it is on the rise, but no-one here seems concerned with that. The UK, within months of voting for Brexit, has already vacated its 'bad boy' member status to Poland – if anyone has bothered to read recent news they will know that.

Like I said pages ago. There is plenty of passion and rhetoric here, but not much in the way of cold hard facts.

Am I going to convince a Scottish SNP supporter/nationalist to vote 'No' in any forthcoming independence referendum? I doubt it.

But has anyone here persuaded me that Scottish nationalism is a good thing for Scotland?

Not a cat in hell's chance.

Interesting choice of words - point me in the direction of the detailed financial analysis, the due diligence the government has undertaken in the past 9 mths and I'll happily wade through the ground work they've done so far

I've just cited percentages, facts and figures in my post and you posted a one liner about 'basket case'

And your reply presents nothing to back up your 'basket case' argument other than rhetoric but yet demands me to provide you with more in the way of facts and figures?

There's a whole big internet out there. Can I respectfully suggest you go and do your own research (and research that isn't based on a biased nationalist agenda) and find out for yourself?

You're not, but your Brexit drum-banging is doing a pretty good job of persuading this former No campaigner to vote Yes.

'Companies come, companies go - some will move to the continent some won't.

The UK isn't going to fall apart overnight because it's left the fucking EU!

Honestly, the way some carry on over a decision to quit a political/fiscal union - as if the end of the world is about to happen, is just ridiculous.'

Are you aware of the ridiculous irony in your dismissive posts? Companies come & go do they? Nothing to see here eh?

And I didn't post anything about 'basket case' fontella - maybe stop and take a breath in between your preaching & patronising rants.

You're not, but your Brexit drum-banging is doing a pretty good job of persuading this former No campaigner to vote Yes.

Vote Yes then.

If what a stranger writes on a forum is what persuades you to vote to leave the UK, then so be it.

It's your vote. You are a UK citizen and you live in a democracy. Your vote is your choice. If what I write on a forum influences you in some way that is entirely up to you.

It makes absolutely no difference to me whatsoever.

And I didn't post anything about 'basket case' fontella - maybe stop and take a breath in between your preaching & patronising rants

Apologies Plectrum - just scrolled back and can see 'basket case' wasn't you.

But I take issue with you on the preaching and patronising. There's been a fair bit of that on this thread, and I'm not preaching or patronising anyone. Just pointing out a few facts which don't seem to go down so well on rhetorical threads.

Actually it has been a gradual process, and is more about diverging paths and attitudes, that is making me think I will change my mind.

Actually it has been a gradual process, and is more about diverging paths and attitudes, that is making me think I will change my mind.

Well, that's great then. You've thought it through and you are leaning towards voting to leave the UK if a referendum happens some time in the future, based upon what you know and how you feel now.

That is precisely the way to vote! But you said it was my 'Brexit drum banging' that was persuading you to switch from 'No' to Yes' as if I, a stranger, who rubbed you up the wrong way on an Internet forum by my tone, or argument, should even be a factor.

I'm no 'Brexit drum banger', but I do hate this rose tinted view of the EU that pervades on Mumsnet. The EU really isn't all that. A bit of online research will tell anyone, with an open mind, that. And I really do hate this whole 'our world will collapse when we leave' attitude that also seems to pervade on here.

It won't. The principles behind the formation of the EU were good and sincere. But the truth is about 90% of it now, the bureaucracy and expense .. is just dead weight.

Countries do and will continue to thrive outside of political fiscal/unions. The UK will be ok, I honestly do believe that and it's got nothing to do with Brexit drum banging, I just do!

An independent Scotland however I fear would have a much rockier road, but if I was a passionate Scot I might feel differently.

Night all, great debate, and I wish you all well!

I agree fontella, independence is a much bigger and worse consequence for Scotland than Brexit, although I don't believe the economic consequences of Brexit are avoidable due to RUK being our main trading partner in any case.

Gruffalowswife, yes I'm a No. Will always be a No. I'm horrified we're about to go through this nonsense again. And no doubt again and again until they get what they want. Completely gutted. Going to try and stay off threads and FB pages about this as much as possible in order to retain some sanity.

Yes Lord Percy. I know what you mean, I know it sounds ridiculous, but I am genuinely heartbroken about this

"People saying 'oh the poor will be worse off under independence' need reminding that they are going to be worse off under brexit as well, so it is a non argument"

That is like saying I left a box of chocolates on the sideboard and my neighbour came in and had one... fuck it i've got less now so I'm going to bin the whole fucking box. That bitch from next door ruined everything. I hate her!!!!!

Mother I agree that the poor are always hit hardest. That is unfortunately inevitable as they are most vulnerable and have the least resources with which to whether financial storms. But I disagree with the implication that they will be hit equally hard in all scenarios. If they are hit hard by the shockwaves of Brexit in the context of the UK which has the resources to cushion the blow to an extent, they they will be knocked out by layering the even bigger shock of Independence on top, as Scotland is in a much worse position financially and couldn't hope to protect them.

The uk economy is much larger than the scottish economy. Larger economies find it easier to weather the storm so to speak.

Scotland alone would find it difficult. The uk will have their own problems to deal with and are unlikely to come to the rescue with a taxpayer bailout like they did for ireland, plus they may not be able to join eu with such a huge defecit so there would be no bailout there either.

The UK would be under no obligation to protect us.

Nearly every company out there is currently making contingency plans to leave if there is a hard Brexit.

The big issue facing these companies at the moment is where to go. Amsterdam and Dublin are the most obvious choice at the moment. However, both of these are already booming and offices, skilled staff are already at a premium.

Edinburgh would be an attractive alternative in an independent Scotland. Beautiful city, world-class universities, etc, it could become one of the top financial centres in the world.

Scotland does not have to compete with the rest if the UK to win a race to the bottom, e.g. counteracting rising prices of imports with squeezed wages, diminished labour laws and zero hours contracts.

The one caveat is that Scotland will have to do is get its act together on education. Like the rest of the UK, the very top is excellent but the standard of education received by the majority of Scots is below average to poor. This will need to be improved significantly.

Mother we know that the UK economy is much stronger than the Scottish economy, the current figures show that. We also know that few economists are predicting Armageddon now, and have been forced to concede that their predictions were overly pessimistic. We know that the EU was already a declining market for the U.K., and that building on the trade links with the rest of the world is a natural extension of what was happening anyway. We know that several large companies have already pledged investment in a post-Brexit Britain.

We also know that the vast majority of Scotland's trade is with the UK and barriers to this market would be very damaging, and have a much larger effect than barriers to trade with the EU (which we will also have). And that Scotland's economy is very dependent on oil and struggling massively.

Of course no-one can predict the future, but I think it's obvious which is the better bet.

I agree that currently the SNP aren't getting anywhere at Westminster (thank God for small mercies), but in the not too distant past, when the UK had a Labour government, Scotland not only had considerable influence but called the shots at Westminster, with a Scottish Prime Minister and Chancellor. But Westminster is becoming less relevant to the lives of Scots all the time, with the massive powers that are held at Holyrood meaning that we can do our own thing on pretty much every issue that matters to people day to day. All this, with the safety net of the UK, who have already bailed us out in the recent past. If we had a more competent Scottish government the future could be very rosy for Scotland in the U.K. once this storm has passed.

There is no guarantee of eu membership.

You are cutting off your nose despite your face.