Yes I would say this is probably quite near to the facts.
He's staying, the ow knows the choice he made, she must have been gutted, regardless of how much she believed his feelings. Have you asked what the ow was talking about to mutual friends for him to contact her ?
Maybe she was actually the one who contacted him and he's covering for her, it happens, ow when rejected can become very depressed, emotional and irrational for years after the event, maybe their own lives were screwed up because they put their faith into starting a new life with someone they thought they could trust. Some ow need managing, their mental health can plummit, rightly or wrongly, they are capable of being revengeful.
Two years is a while, I think he's probably over her, if he were to pine for two years he would have left his wife I think at the time, unless he's now up for some extra again but I would put money on him going for a different ow, men know they can only push it so far with the ow if she has a shred of dignity.
I don't believe he loves this one, he loves himself, he's happy with the fact two women are unhappy and he has destroyed their lives.
He will find a new one, he's done it once, he'll do it again, start from scratch with a new guilible victim, probably younger than the one he's had, that's the usual pattern for these unfaithful types, it's usually only age and health that stops them eventually.
You sound very calm op, have you decided what you want, regardless of what happens I don't this this particular ow holds much power over him, it looks like he used her and backed off/dumped her when the shit hit the fan, I reckon she's got to the two year mark and her life is in tatters and is angry for making foolish choices but is blaming him, maybe she is telling others now how badly she was treated and maybe he is managing the smear campaign and his reputation.