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House prices

674 replies

Twiglets1 · 13/12/2023 17:03

Hi Guys, we got to the end of the last thread so need another one on this controversial topic!

And to respond to @CrashyTime I don't say "demand is strong" over and over again. In fact, I rarely comment on demand at all. My posts are more focussed on house prices and interest rates/mortgage rates.

And I don't deny economic "reality", I just don't exaggerate how bad the house price correction is likely to be. I have a running bet with @XVGN that property prices generally will fall about 5% in 2023 and another 5% in 2024 so I do believe prices are falling in most areas. Just nothing like the 30-35% crash predicted by some!

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KievLoverTwo · 13/12/2023 17:12

Bun fiiiiiiiight!

Thanks for the new thread @Twiglets1.

I have seen some horribly overpriced houses hit my inbox in the last two weeks. People wanting 1/3rd more for their homes than they paid in 2020.

I assume it's the latest crop of people who have had their houses overvalued by EAs, who will be forced to reduce them in January. The "put it on the market now, because the highest viewing day is boxing day" EA crew.

None of them are in particularly high demand areas.

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Restinggoddess · 13/12/2023 17:19

Can’t find the article now but The Times article also suggests no massive crash
The jist being that the last time there was a crash this was due to higher unemployment than the current level

I would like to think the above is true but don’t have much positivity about an economy that’s not growing and where redundancies are being announced

Watching with interest in terms of predictions and whether they hit the mark or not

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Timewentfast · 13/12/2023 17:22

Here in Scotland (about 10 miles outside Edinburgh) things have slowed down although there is still the odd closing date. Prices are still high and lots of houses still achieving the prices from the 'peak'. Probably taking a few weeks to sell now though rather than closing date in first week. A few are taking a couple of months to sell but most sellers seem to be just waiting it out and they eventually sell for not too far off the peak price to be honest. There are a few 'problem' houses that are sticking about - these ones may have sold during the madness because quite frankly anything was selling then but there has definately not been a crash.

For example - I'll use a 3 bed house that sold near me during the peak. It went to closing and sold for £271k odds. Another identical house came on recently and it sold after a few weeks for £260k. So not the same madness but still sold pretty quick and a slight reduction in price but not much. These same houses were selling for £220K before the madness started. Another same house type but with a converted garage and on a bigger corner plot sold for £310k during the madness mind.

Houses that would have been in my price bracket in 2019 are now just completely out of my price bracket. Very depressing for those looking to buy.

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Twiglets1 · 13/12/2023 17:24

I'll quote some people from the old thread but sorry for anyone I leave out

@LGBirmingham
@DrySherry
@Xenia
@electriclight
@KievLoverTwo
@Lightscribe
@CountryCob
@Flutterbye22
@rainingsnoring
@XVGN
@Saschka
@LindaDawn
@Sublime66
@BadCider
@overdalexx
@Lm1981
@Karmatime
@Alexalee
@Ibelieveinmirrorballs
@Porkepic
@MidnightMeltdown
@NoWordForFluffy

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CrashyTime · 13/12/2023 17:25

Timewentfast · 13/12/2023 17:22

Here in Scotland (about 10 miles outside Edinburgh) things have slowed down although there is still the odd closing date. Prices are still high and lots of houses still achieving the prices from the 'peak'. Probably taking a few weeks to sell now though rather than closing date in first week. A few are taking a couple of months to sell but most sellers seem to be just waiting it out and they eventually sell for not too far off the peak price to be honest. There are a few 'problem' houses that are sticking about - these ones may have sold during the madness because quite frankly anything was selling then but there has definately not been a crash.

For example - I'll use a 3 bed house that sold near me during the peak. It went to closing and sold for £271k odds. Another identical house came on recently and it sold after a few weeks for £260k. So not the same madness but still sold pretty quick and a slight reduction in price but not much. These same houses were selling for £220K before the madness started. Another same house type but with a converted garage and on a bigger corner plot sold for £310k during the madness mind.

Houses that would have been in my price bracket in 2019 are now just completely out of my price bracket. Very depressing for those looking to buy.

Is there an equivalent of this for Scotland?

https://www.plumplot.co.uk/house-prices-by-county.html

England and Wales house prices in maps and graphs.

Wales and England CODE(0x55eefe384208)

https://www.plumplot.co.uk/house-prices-by-county.html

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KievLoverTwo · 13/12/2023 17:31

@CrashyTime where do Plumplot get their data from?

As you repeatedly link to them as a source to back up price crash statements, I just had a look around their site, and all I can find out about them is that they are based in the Czech Republic, and if you want specifics on a town instead of a county or city, you have to pay them.

Do you have further information on them to reassure readers that they are worth taking seriously?

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CrashyTime · 13/12/2023 17:34

Timewentfast · 13/12/2023 17:22

Here in Scotland (about 10 miles outside Edinburgh) things have slowed down although there is still the odd closing date. Prices are still high and lots of houses still achieving the prices from the 'peak'. Probably taking a few weeks to sell now though rather than closing date in first week. A few are taking a couple of months to sell but most sellers seem to be just waiting it out and they eventually sell for not too far off the peak price to be honest. There are a few 'problem' houses that are sticking about - these ones may have sold during the madness because quite frankly anything was selling then but there has definately not been a crash.

For example - I'll use a 3 bed house that sold near me during the peak. It went to closing and sold for £271k odds. Another identical house came on recently and it sold after a few weeks for £260k. So not the same madness but still sold pretty quick and a slight reduction in price but not much. These same houses were selling for £220K before the madness started. Another same house type but with a converted garage and on a bigger corner plot sold for £310k during the madness mind.

Houses that would have been in my price bracket in 2019 are now just completely out of my price bracket. Very depressing for those looking to buy.

Yes, PropertyLog is showing that lots of sellers are trying to brazen it out with quite high prices, not sure how long that will last though, U.S/EU recession would hammer Edinburgh tourism? Supply also seems to be quite high as well?

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CrashyTime · 13/12/2023 17:42

KievLoverTwo · 13/12/2023 17:31

@CrashyTime where do Plumplot get their data from?

As you repeatedly link to them as a source to back up price crash statements, I just had a look around their site, and all I can find out about them is that they are based in the Czech Republic, and if you want specifics on a town instead of a county or city, you have to pay them.

Do you have further information on them to reassure readers that they are worth taking seriously?

They have been around for quite a long time, I have never been scammed or picked up a virus/malware from their site - is there something about their data that makes you uncomfortable? Maybe you could tell us why their data is inaccurate? The fact that they ask for payment if they break numbers down even further for people is even more reassuring TBH, why should they do it for free? And as far as I know they don`t sell mortgage products like many of the sources you like to quote, so that is another plus from me.

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CrashyTime · 13/12/2023 17:45

KievLoverTwo · 13/12/2023 17:31

@CrashyTime where do Plumplot get their data from?

As you repeatedly link to them as a source to back up price crash statements, I just had a look around their site, and all I can find out about them is that they are based in the Czech Republic, and if you want specifics on a town instead of a county or city, you have to pay them.

Do you have further information on them to reassure readers that they are worth taking seriously?

Looks like they are using LR numbers, about as accurate as you can get?

https://www.bing.com/search?q=where+do+plumplot+get+their+data&PC=U316&FORM=CHROMN

where do plumplot get their data - Bing

Intelligent search from Bing makes it easier to quickly find what you’re looking for and rewards you.

https://www.bing.com/search?FORM=CHROMN&PC=U316&q=where+do+plumplot+get+their+data

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KievLoverTwo · 13/12/2023 18:06

CrashyTime · 13/12/2023 17:42

They have been around for quite a long time, I have never been scammed or picked up a virus/malware from their site - is there something about their data that makes you uncomfortable? Maybe you could tell us why their data is inaccurate? The fact that they ask for payment if they break numbers down even further for people is even more reassuring TBH, why should they do it for free? And as far as I know they don`t sell mortgage products like many of the sources you like to quote, so that is another plus from me.

So you don’t know who they are nor where they get their data, but you are happy to often link to them? And why is that?

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CrashyTime · 13/12/2023 18:16

KievLoverTwo · 13/12/2023 18:06

So you don’t know who they are nor where they get their data, but you are happy to often link to them? And why is that?

They are using LR data, read the links.

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CrashyTime · 13/12/2023 18:18

KievLoverTwo · 13/12/2023 17:31

@CrashyTime where do Plumplot get their data from?

As you repeatedly link to them as a source to back up price crash statements, I just had a look around their site, and all I can find out about them is that they are based in the Czech Republic, and if you want specifics on a town instead of a county or city, you have to pay them.

Do you have further information on them to reassure readers that they are worth taking seriously?

Is this worth taking seriously, or do you think it is made up?

https://propertyindustryeye.com/uk-mortgage-arrears-hit-six-year-high/

UK mortgage arrears hit six-year high - Property Industry Eye

UK mortgage arrears hit six-year high - Breaking news for estate agents and the residential property industry. Independent, unbiased, and factual reporting. A forum for discussion and debate of topics of the day. Subscribe for our free daily newsletter...

https://propertyindustryeye.com/uk-mortgage-arrears-hit-six-year-high

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mumda · 13/12/2023 18:22

@Twiglets1 demand is strong.

You can't keep importing people and expect them to live under the stars.

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KievLoverTwo · 13/12/2023 20:01

CrashyTime · 13/12/2023 18:16

They are using LR data, read the links.

Okay, but you have been quoting this source for years and you had no idea where they were getting their data from until I questioned you tonight.

Is that correct?

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KievLoverTwo · 13/12/2023 20:05

CrashyTime · 13/12/2023 18:18

Is this worth taking seriously, or do you think it is made up?

https://propertyindustryeye.com/uk-mortgage-arrears-hit-six-year-high/

The Bank of England are a slightly more reliable source than some random company who don't even explain who they are, who are based in the Czech Republic, yet choose to report on the UK property market for some bizarre, unfathomable reason ($$$?), yes.

Next year is going to be proper crap for homeowners. And whilst I would welcome lower house prices, I am not looking forward to the fallout of 'move or feed my kids' 2024.

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CrashyTime · 13/12/2023 20:18

KievLoverTwo · 13/12/2023 20:05

The Bank of England are a slightly more reliable source than some random company who don't even explain who they are, who are based in the Czech Republic, yet choose to report on the UK property market for some bizarre, unfathomable reason ($$$?), yes.

Next year is going to be proper crap for homeowners. And whilst I would welcome lower house prices, I am not looking forward to the fallout of 'move or feed my kids' 2024.

Edited

Are you saying that the Plumplot figures are incorrect?

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CrashyTime · 13/12/2023 20:21

KievLoverTwo · 13/12/2023 20:01

Okay, but you have been quoting this source for years and you had no idea where they were getting their data from until I questioned you tonight.

Is that correct?

I will ask again, do you think it likely that a well known website, in existence for years, was not using the same data that everyone else has access to?

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KievLoverTwo · 13/12/2023 20:25

CrashyTime · 13/12/2023 20:21

I will ask again, do you think it likely that a well known website, in existence for years, was not using the same data that everyone else has access to?

If you answer my very direct question with an answer, and not another question, I will answer yours.

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CrashyTime · 13/12/2023 20:32

I think that the graphs just very directly spell out the reality of a property market built on cheap debt, and then the removal of that cheap debt, a lot of people are going to struggle to confront that head on, depending of course on how emotionally (and financially) invested they are in property.

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GoldenTea · 13/12/2023 20:39

I follow this guy on YouTube. He's my neck of the woods (Yorkshire). He's an estate agent, so take it all with a pinch of salt:

That said, if you go back through his old videos he's not far off. He reckons we're running at 6 to 8% below peak and isn't expecting much if anything off prices going forward.

Year-End Property Market Update: November Trends & Future Predictions!

As we bid farewell to November, Managing Director, Mark reviews the trends that unfolded in the property market. A resilient buyer surge, a balancing act in ...

https://youtu.be/rYBbZZ5s5lY?si=8_M__YPWmGQwFxix

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ibelieveinmirrorballs · 13/12/2023 20:57

@CrashyTime the point here is that if you are going to be repeatedly relying on the same source whilst chiding other people for Failing Not To Be Idiots, one might have assumed that you had fact checked said data source. Otherwise… heaven forfend - you could fall prey to confirmation bias and simply be sharing something that happens to reflect your existing views 😱

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XVGN · 14/12/2023 11:20

Here's the RICS monthly.

https://www.rics.org/news-insights/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey

"The November 2023 RICS UK Residential Survey results point to a slightly improved outlook for market activity going forward, with sentiment supported by a modest easing in mortgage rates over recent weeks. That said, near-term sales expectations are only marginally positive at this stage, while most other indicators tracked remain in negative territory (albeit to a lesser extent than previously). "


Howard will be no help to me and @Twiglets1 resolving our bet. Talk about sitting on the fence!

"Howard Davis , Bristol, , [email protected] - The Bristol market is correcting. We have already seen prices fall by 5% to 10% and this trend is likely to continue. Family houses are likely to find their level soon as demand for central houses is steady. Flats however will have a little way to go."

https://www.rics.org/news-insights/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey

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XVGN · 14/12/2023 11:24

Wow.

"Robert Cooney FRICS, Taunton, Robert Cooney Chartered Surveyors & Estate Agents, [email protected] - Whilst there is still some activity, most of the appraisals are from those on the market already looking to change agents. Almost 25% of total stock hasn’t had one viewing in the last 6 weeks reflects huge swathes of property way out of kilter with buyer expectations. Cash secures large reductions."

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Twiglets1 · 14/12/2023 11:37

XVGN · 14/12/2023 11:24

Wow.

"Robert Cooney FRICS, Taunton, Robert Cooney Chartered Surveyors & Estate Agents, [email protected] - Whilst there is still some activity, most of the appraisals are from those on the market already looking to change agents. Almost 25% of total stock hasn’t had one viewing in the last 6 weeks reflects huge swathes of property way out of kilter with buyer expectations. Cash secures large reductions."

Incredible really. If I didn't have one viewing in a whole month I would be reducing the price not leaving it 6 weeks or longer.

I wonder if there is something about Taunton folk that makes them particularly stubborn about holding out for the original valuation.

OP posts:
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KievLoverTwo · 14/12/2023 11:45

XVGN · 14/12/2023 11:24

Wow.

"Robert Cooney FRICS, Taunton, Robert Cooney Chartered Surveyors & Estate Agents, [email protected] - Whilst there is still some activity, most of the appraisals are from those on the market already looking to change agents. Almost 25% of total stock hasn’t had one viewing in the last 6 weeks reflects huge swathes of property way out of kilter with buyer expectations. Cash secures large reductions."

You know things are getting bad when folk are paying surveyors to price their houses.

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