House prices

[Twiglets1]

Hi Guys, we got to the end of the last thread so need another one on this controversial topic!

And to respond to @CrashyTime I don't say "demand is strong" over and over again. In fact, I rarely comment on demand at all. My posts are more focussed on house prices and interest rates/mortgage rates.

And I don't deny economic "reality", I just don't exaggerate how bad the house price correction is likely to be. I have a running bet with @XVGN that property prices generally will fall about 5% in 2023 and another 5% in 2024 so I do believe prices are falling in most areas. Just nothing like the 30-35% crash predicted by some!

Nationwide house price index: September records fastest annual house price growth in two years.

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist said "UK house prices increased by 0.7% in September, after taking account of seasonal effects. This resulted in the annual rate of growth rising from 2.4% in August to 3.2% in September, the fastest pace since November 2022 (4.4%). Average prices are now around 2% below the all-time highs recorded in summer 2022.

“Northern Ireland remained the best performer by some margin, with prices up 8.6% compared with Q3 2023. Scotland saw a noticeable acceleration in annual growth to 4.3% (from 1.4% in Q2), while Wales saw a more modest 2.5% year-on-year rise (from 1.4% the previous quarter).

“Across England overall, prices were up 1.9% compared with Q3 2023. Northern England (comprising North, North West, Yorkshire & The Humber, East Midlands and West Midlands), continued to outperform southern England, with prices up 3.1% year-on-year. The North West was the best performing English region, with prices up 5.0% year-on-year.

“Southern England (South West, Outer South East, Outer Metropolitan, London and East Anglia) saw a 1.3% year-on-year rise. London remained the best performing southern region with annual price growth of 2.0%. East Anglia was the only UK region to record an annual price fall, with prices down 0.8% year-on-year".

https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/september-records-fastest-annual-house-price-growth-in-two-years

Thank you, further proof that houses are on the rise. I wish I had listened to sensible people when I was younger as I foolishly believed house prices might crumble

Latest Acadata House Price Index has been published for those following this index. Small monthly fall of 0.1%
South East prices down 9% since peak in 2022 - thats the relevant bit for me.

Link to Anacdata House Price Index for those interested. Their headlines state:

Housing market treads water in September

• Average prices £200 lower than in August
• South West suffers reverse
• Lower mortgage rates to benefit southern England

http://www.acadata.co.uk/assets/uploads/2024/10/e.surv-Acadata-England-Wales-HPI-September-2024.pdf

Anacdata: The housing market in September

In September, the average sale price of a home in England and Wales was down marginally at £354,000 – about £200 or 0.1% lower than in August.

Average prices have nudged lower since March. Although the monthly changes are for the most part relatively small, they have undermined the gradually improving year-on-year picture seen earlier. On an annual basis, average prices in September are about 3.3% lower than a year ago.

Despite earlier optimism on our part, prices have yet to move onto a reassuringly positive trajectory, as Figure 1 shows. For England and Wales as a whole prices are about £25,000 (nearly 7%) below the previous peak reached in October 2022.

Whilst our e.surv index indicates that prices continue to be subdued, generally speaking market conditions are improving. Cost-of-living pressures have progressively eased for many households and falls in mortgage rates have helped affordability and market sentiment. Mortgage approvals are at their strongest level for two years. More competitive mortgage deals have helped to stimulate stronger sales (see Figure 2). That said, prices have remained in check because ongoing pressure on household finances means that buyers remain highly price-sensitive. Also, more vendors have offered their properties for sale in the face of stronger housing demand.

With mortgage lenders continuing to launch lower-priced deals and financial markets anticipating further base rate cuts before year-end, this points towards a market that is poised to move forward over the short-term. Lower rates are likely to be particularly beneficial in the higher-priced markets such as London and the South East, and this may unlock a stronger pick-up in house prices at the national level.

http://www.acadata.co.uk/assets/uploads/2024/10/e.surv-Acadata-England-Wales-HPI-September-2024.pdf

House prices at record high, says Halifax (BBC article)

The UK's largest mortgage lender said the average price hit £293,999 in October, surpassing a peak of £293,507 that was reached in June 2022.
Halifax said it expected prices to continue to rise at a "modest pace" for the next few months.

Halifax said house prices edged up by 0.2% in October, meaning property values have now increased for four months in a row.
House prices are up 3.9% from a year earlier, Halifax said, which is a slight decrease from the 4.6% annual increase seen in September.

Commenting on the new record high, Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax, said: “That house prices have reached these heights again in the current economic climate may come as a surprise to many, but perhaps more noteworthy is that they didn’t fall very far in the first place.

"Despite the headwind of higher interest rates, house prices have mostly levelled off over the past two and a half years, recording a +0.2% increase overall."
She added that Budget announcements such as higher stamp duty for second home buyers and a return to previous thresholds for first-time buyers could hit demand for properties.

However, she added that market activity had been improving, with the number of new mortgages agreed recently hitting the highest level for two years.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrd38k0eg7o

Excellent news , prices are recovering to record highs. Also a report other day showed 25% increase roughly in next 5 years. They you go folks , if you can afford to buy don’t delay you will only pay more later

Yes I saw that Savills report.

Of course there will be regional variations and variations depending on the type of property but still ..,. Not exactly the house price crash some were predicting back in 2022 is it?

Still going down here. 9% from peak so far and a small matter of 10% inflation over these past two years, is pretty hefty to me.
So, still sitting in my hands and not committing to buy atm.

Fair enough @Lastwhisper but if you get too fixated on buying at the very bottom of the market you will likely miss it & then find prices are rising again in your area.

I agree twiglets. Also the market is much more nuanced than the figures. Overall prices may be falling/rising whatever. But you can find that in the bracket you want to buy in they are doing the opposite to the general trend. Or could be that houses needing full renos have dropped by like 20% and ones not needing work have stayed put but the appearance in the figures is that the market has fallen 9%. Or it can be the area you want is actually rising but the trend for the whole city is falling.

I know a few families who have just moved to their next 20 years house with preschool aged kids (including us) and a few who are trying to move up to that stage. The ones moving now are getting into bidding wars. There just isn't that many good family houses with 3/4 decent bedrooms, good gardens, parking etc... in the right area available. There are still more people after that than there are houses for sale. I think they're going for under asking but that is because the houses were ridiculously over priced to start off with. A house my friends are buying for example, really good size and great location but needs a lot of updating, was listed for 475, they secured it for 460 I think after being in a bidding war. But their preferred lender devalued it to 400k and they had to find another mortgage company to loan them the money as the vendor wouldn't drop the price. So effectively that house has gone for over it's value as there is so much demand. My friends will be fine in the long run I think as they'll update it slowly as they live in it and by the time their kids are ready for uni I'm sure it will be worth much more.

If you are holding off just make sure you are really keeping an eye on listings in your chosen areas rather than just looking at any of these house prices type sites which report trends.

It is foolishness to not buy now if you can afford to do so. I suspect many who don’t buy actually can’t afford to do so.

when we were looking for our next rung up the ladder , we had about 275k in mind (this was back in 2019). Those houses are now all 100k more expensive. While wages have gone up a bit , it doesn’t cover it. Luckily we moved during Covid and didn’t pay any stamp duty. We bought a home we see ourselves in long term and paid 365k. House is now worth 450k. In 5 years it will be 560k ish according to current predictions. All the while the mortgage is shrinking and feeling cheaper due to wage inflation.

It's a mixed bag isn't it, flats are tanking. The nw seems to be doing better but flats in London/SE/SW are reducing

I do however have 3 colleagues at work who were drinking the Charlie koolaid and have since decided it's not worth waiting any longer for his prediction and have decided to look at buying somewhere

Even he says buy now just don't overpay.

Duh ...like anyone deliberately overpays 😂

I really had to stop listening to his channel because he just says so much mixed advice that it's confusing. One minute he's like I wouldn't buy now I would buy in the future when house prices have come down a lot more. The next minute It's buy now just don't overpay and how do you even know if you're overpaying or not? It's a really hard thing to work out.

i've accepted I might be overpaying, but I'd rather overpay than be in the rental market in London where you can be kicked out any minute and rent just seem to go up and up and up

Anyone might be overpaying when they buy a property, you can never know for sure if you could have got it a bit cheaper or if prices will go up or down during the period you end up owning it.

It's only in retrospect you find out whether the purchase made good economic sense or not. But for most people their property is their home first and foremost. Buying a property 100% makes sense from that angle and so they pay what they have to with what they can afford in order to live where they want to live.

It's certainly difficult which is why I don't like his 'don't overpay message'

The best time to buy is when you can afford it. With that being said the there doesn't seem to be good quality properties available.

If you find a house you like and can afford it buy it, it will be worth more in 5 years time than it is now (99% sure).

This thread is very close to reaching 1000 posts and coming to the end.

This one started in December 2023 so it's interesting to see how things have evolved over the last year.

I've started a new thread called House Prices going into 2025

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/5207153-house-prices-going-into-2025

Thanks @Twiglets1 I started the original thread as I was trying to work out whether to take the plunge and buy our next house. We have now. I'm glad we did at the moment. Let's see what 2025 brings. I wonder if Crashy will join us on the new thread? @CrashyTime ?

Ah yes I had forgotten you started the original thread @LGBirmingham the one before this one.

There were some characters on that one weren’t there, insisting that we were about to see a massive house prices crash.

CrashyTime with his dodgy keyboard was the most entertaining. I like to think he will drop into the new thread but with a new username.

Thing is I sort of wanted crashy to be right as I think high house prices are responsible for our rubbish economy. But it just became clear a crash wasn't happening. A stagnation - definitely. But you'd be waiting a long time to notice any meaningful difference in prices in this scenario and be much older by the time you move so loads further away from paying off the new mortgage. Does that make sense?

Totally makes sense.

I can definitely see it from the point of view of people who would like a house price crash & maybe it would have been good for our economy in the long run I don’t know.

But willing something to happen doesn’t mean it will happen. We appear to have house price stagnation (or small falls) in most areas instead with predictions of small increases ahead. The 2025 thread will continue to follow the journey 😊