House prices

[Twiglets1]

Hi Guys, we got to the end of the last thread so need another one on this controversial topic!

And to respond to @CrashyTime I don't say "demand is strong" over and over again. In fact, I rarely comment on demand at all. My posts are more focussed on house prices and interest rates/mortgage rates.

And I don't deny economic "reality", I just don't exaggerate how bad the house price correction is likely to be. I have a running bet with @XVGN that property prices generally will fall about 5% in 2023 and another 5% in 2024 so I do believe prices are falling in most areas. Just nothing like the 30-35% crash predicted by some!

This will be the case for so many now, should put nice downward pressure on prices though.

Crashy - I presume you are a renter waiting for house prices to fall enough for YOU to buy. You know that is very unlikely to happen?

Crashy has pinned their entire personality on a house crash that has never come and never will... very sad. This time next year, Rodders!

Crashy is not wrong in what he/she hopes for. Nor is crashy wrong about what "should" happen. In a just world crashy might get what's right. However in this world there are a lot of vested interests doing their best to keep the plates spinning - and keep the debt slaves quietly turning the wheels.

I downloaded a bunch of Land Registry data and crunched some numbers. Link here:

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4981240-how-to-make-a-cheeky-offer-without-alienating-sellerea?reply=132151256&utm_campaign=thread&utm_medium=share&utm_source=copylink

If you really think Charlie could be correct that house prices will fall 35% before inflation between 2022 to 25, why are you considering buying in 2024? I’m not denying prices are falling in most regions, my view is that the falls are relatively small, especially if you discount inflation.

The thing about that person is that he hasn’t revised his extreme position now new information has come to light has he? He previously stated he was “almost certain” that the BoE base rate would rise to 5.5% or 6% by the end of 2023. He later went so far as to suggest it could go higher than 6.5%.

Now we know it peaked at 5.25% but has he revised his 35% prediction? No, he hasn’t because he likes being controversial. It keeps people talking about him. He says himself he doesn’t care about being wrong. But in my view, if he was a serious person he would be willing to admit he was too extreme in his forecasts and revise them in light of the new information we now have about where interest rates did peak and the direction they will be travelling in during 2024.

I consider him to be cynically using the 35% over 3 years idea before inflation as click bait to first gain attention and then keep relevant to his followers who like the dream that he is peddling. Because yes, to many people a “collapse”of the property market (his word) is a dream. I think they should wake up to the fact that this guy is getting rich from telling people what they want to hear but which isn’t supported by what is actually happening to interest rates and to the property market. It’s stagnating not crashing but that’s not a sexy message to anyone, is it?

Sorry that was to @KievLoverTwo

He is not getting rich with the number of followers he has FGS!!! Yes he does flog other services from time to time, but as someone else pointed out, don't all YouTubers? Probably about one in ten videos he will mention private 1 to 1s, conveyancers and brokers he is partnered with. It never feels like oversell. And d'ya know, I absolutely don't resent him any earnings. Have you seen how many videos he released last year? He put in a mind boggling number of hours on that channel. He is really committed to people not overpaying to the point of obsession. I have seen him pull over to the side of the road to do a quick update on why the latest numbers release looks better or worse, like a man possessed. He gets really angry with agents overpricing tactics.

He talks about whether to revise his position now and then. As long as the economy isn't looking great he says not. The thing that would change his prediction would be people continuing to get large payrises which might cause house prices to start increasing. But it doesn't look like our GDP is miraculously going to get any better any time soon, so huge payrises are unlikely. Or they will come at a cost: redundancies.

You know full well why I want to buy in 2024! Our rental drives me insane. You have even said to me several times 'I am happy to hear you are looking again, you need to get out of that place.' But I can find the thread with the dreadful things listed, if you like, and link you?

My priority isn't getting the sort of house I want at the cheapest possible cost, it's a balancing act.

It needs to be good enough that we can live there for circa 10 years if a crash of any sort actually does happen (we have never lived in any of the areas we are looking in, and have quite deep rooted desires to leave the country anyway), it needs to be quite big due to my disability, and we need him indoors to be able to access London. The thing that keeps playing on his mind is mortgage term into retirement. He just turned 42 and I am 48 and he doesn't want to be paying a mortgage into retirement. So we are kinda running out of time to get one, and probably spend several years overpaying to make sure that doesn't happen.

We could buy somewhere tomorrow and never worry about money but it would probably be 600 sq ft too small and somewhere we don't really want to settle.

We could rent again but frankly nothing out there is of much good and it would also be £400 pm more than we now pay (LL owns outright, no rent increase yet).

In the meantime, the redundancy slush fund keeps building (900 got laid off from his work in winter) and houses are beginning to come through with reductions. Just not any of the three or four that I would like to buy :)

The mortgage would be about 800 pm more than our rent at the moment, and his inner Yorkshireman keeps mentally objecting to that. Especially since his payrise last year was barely even a token gesture and his market is not vibrant enough right now to leave.

If mortgage rates drop another 0.75-1% I think that extra monthly amount will look far different. And we will have better savings. I think it's 5.30% for 95% LTV right now but Co-op just released 4.02% for 90%, which is great. But a bit more saving is needed for emergency funds.

So I certainly don't intend to wait and see what happens with house prices indefinitely, but the most important thing is finding a 'keeper' within a not really uncomfortable budget, and that is yet to happen.

Yes I do understand why you want to buy in 2024 and I hope you find something you’re happy with. I just feel like you know in your heart that prices won’t fall 35% before inflation between 2022 to 25 or you would be waiting until 2025 to pick up an amazing bargain. Have you seen any yet? I haven’t.

I get that you find certain aspects of his advice useful and no doubt it is to many FTBs, I’ve never made it past the first 5 minutes of his ramblings but I’m not his target audience. My personal opinion though is that he made a highly controversial statement to get noticed and grow his business, even to the extent of attracting media attention. He was successful in his goal but he should admit now that he was wrong and stop pedalling the same message when he was wrong about interest rates and there is increasing evidence that other predictions such as hordes of people panic selling, being repossessed etc were also wrong.

You point out that much of his advice is useful to you but people can’t view his site without being drawn to the other stuff - the house price collapse stuff that he can’t revise his position on because it’s his unique selling point. As an intelligent person you may decide to pick and choose which aspects of his advice you believe. But there are a lot of vulnerable people out there and my personal opinion is that some people believe what they want to believe regardless of changing evidence or boring “experts” saying it’s just more of the same to look forward to with a broken housing market. Those people are going to be very disappointed when he FINALLY admits he was wrong but he will walk away whistling with a throwaway comment about not minding being wrong. That’s my prediction, anyway.

If you buy a house to live in rather than as an investment, it doesn't matter much if prices go up or down as long as yours goes up and down in line with the market so you are able to move to something equivalent if you have to for a job or to retire.

More of a worry for FTB if they end up in negative equity, but with stricter rules on deposits now that's much less likely to happen than in the last crash where people were sitting on 100% or even 105% mortgages.

Quite right. I've bought and sold through ups and downs over many years. It didn't matter to me that sometimes I made money and sometimes I didn't, because it was all about the property being a home - not an investment. Anyone looking to make money from their property or thinking of it as a pension should really think again.

I think MN'ers are intelligent enough to work out what is best for their own circumstances and can pick through all the data and opinions that help them make those decisions.

The most important factor is working out how much you can comfortably afford and risk in making those buying decisions.

I just feel like you know in your heart that prices won’t fall 35% before inflation between 2022 to 25 or you would be waiting until 2025 to pick up an amazing bargain. Have you seen any yet? I haven’t.

No, I really don't. My motivation is purely to get out of this rental; Charlie's predictions have little effect on my decisions, but it certainly made me think twice, three, four times about committing to a house that needed 100k of refurb work done on top of already being expensive. They made me question what is worth pushing yourself for, and what is not. That probably would have been a five year home. It's increased in value by about a third in a very short space of time but it's also sat on the market unsold and not reduced since we pulled out in June. Nobody wants to spend that kind of money on a money pit. I feel we dodged a bullet. And we were going to get a 33 year long mortgage ffs; now we aren't contemplating more than 25.

I am having to force myself to be patient, because if we bought right now, it would likely only be an interim home, and I think that would be an emotional and possibly financial mistake.

Come Spring, the house will be full of flies again, and I will be going out of my mind until November. In fact, I've just seen one in the kitchen two minutes ago, in January. I don't think I can easily emphasise how mad they drive me; facebombing you in the middle of the night, not being able to even turn your back on a buttered knife for most of the year, and we are completely powerless to stop them - I think they crawl in through the sash windows, through extractors and probably even up drainpipes so up through sinks, baths, and their overflow holes. There's no getting away from them.

The farm noise got a lot worse this winter whilst building works have been going on and the OH seems to be existing on about 30% of the sleep he actually needs (he needs a lot because ADHD exhausts you). He's permanently stressed as a result, and doesn't function very well. Simple things like forgetting how to lock a tricky door occur, after a year and a half of locking the darned thing, or forgetting to fully shut a freezer door, and the entire contents defrost. Or even remembering to lock doors. We have that one often. The brain fog completely numbs an already not so great memory, and even got dumped off a project when he was too direct with a colleague during the 24/7 silage run: 'I think that will ruin your promotion for next year.' Lovely. Never been asked to leave a project in ten years before then.

The screaming rows we were having have stopped, but we're not happy here and never have been. We got so desperate last year that I was even looking closer to home, and neither of us even want to live in this county, because the county doesn't offer us a lot of what we need.

So, we'll buy when the right house comes along, but I am determined to grit my teeth and bare (bear?) it to try to find the best possible house we can, that has the best chance of us being absolutely fine staying there indefinitely. Last year we were of a mind to jump in and I was considering stuff that I knew wouldn't make me happy or would be too physically restrictive; we passed a savings goal at Christmas, I feel differently, and I think those would have been desperate, rash decisions.

So what if house prices fall 15% after we move if we're in a house that makes us happy? It matters if you make a poor house choice and the house/area does not. Speaking of which, I never find even nearly suitable houses in the 2 areas that are my first choice of places to live. It's the housing stock. So that really sucks, because it leaves us with 2 others I would rather avoid, thanks for the need of quick access to London for him.

We'll also only have one opportunity to avoid paying stamp duty up to 425k. I have to think about that because of his obsession with having good pensions.

Bargains? Yeah. I've seen 25% reductions. I've seen houses for sale for similar prices as paid four years ago. A few ones I like have come through with 25k off and one about 50k off; and I really like it, but the village has NOTHING and it's extremely close to one neighbour.

We've seen more of the sort of house we like coming through in the last three months than we'd seen in all of '23 combined.

If we get to summer and it's still looking bleak, we'll make a call. Either we'll have a conversation about paying more than the OH is currently happy with, or we'll have to downscale our requirements and start making concessions. Fingers crossed, it won't come to that.

Right, off I pop to drink all the coffee. I've had three hours sleep, which is more normal than it should be, and is happening more regularly. Have a good Saturday.

This just arrived in my inbox; it's been reduced by £150,000 since August 2023.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/138309626#/?channel=RES_BUY

@KievLoverTwo your stress with your current living arrangements is hard to hear, CLEARLY you need to move for the sake of your happiness & I'm genuinely sorry you are under so much stress.

However, I felt attacked on the other thread by yourself and others for voicing my opinion. You don't like me voicing my opinion about Charlie but guess what? I don't like lots of opinions being voiced on Mumsnet but it's a public forum. He doesn't need 3 people rushing to his defence every time I make a post against him to balance the recommendations coming from you @XVGN and Rainingsnoring. You 3 seem to come as a pack, you don't live together do you??

I've now explained my negativity towards Charlie in terms of ways in which he has already been proved wrong (interest rates) why I feel his message was deliberately over dramatic (to grab attention and grow his business) and why I feel he won't revise in his extreme predictions despite new evidence (because he can shrug off being wrong whereas for his followers it could lead to them making poor financial decisions). I'm cynical about his motivations, you aren't, we don't need to convince each other or feel the other shouldn't post their opinion on Mumsnet.

You say you've seen 25% reductions but have you seen amazing bargains, that was my question? I know Charlie likes to post the occasional property massively reduced as if that somehow proves him correct about the property collapse he predicted, but those properties aren't bargains. They clearly have something majorly wrong with them or were massively ridiculously overpriced because any normal property would be snapped up at a 25% reduction. The houses you are seeing with 25k or 50k still not selling that is because no one likes them, they aren't a bargain and were just overpriced to begin with. Taking the market as a whole, prices aren't crashing at anything like 25%, most buyers are lucky if they can get about 10% reduction on the asking price.

It looks like it's an auction property with a guide price of 400k - that is not the same as a house for sale in the normal way reduced from 550k to 400k. You must know that houses in auctions often achieve way in advance of their guide price. Plus there is obviously something seriously offputting to buyers about this house - possibly the "major scope for improvement" the EA euphemistically refers to!

Yep, you are right.

On three hours sleep I have a case of the major dumbs.

Re: something wrong with it. A lot of what I am seeing not sell at 400-500k are large homes with poor energy efficiency. Plus that needs a top to toe refurb too.

Sold prices for "similar", could just see map references not pictures, at about 200k a few years ago, this one has a bit to drop yet maybe?

Britain’s housing market is on the brink of a sea change, as the outlook improves just in time for the general election. Rising wages, falling inflation and easing mortgage rates have prompted a wave of analysts to upgrade their house price forecasts for the coming year, as the latest downturn nears its end. According to Nationwide’s seasonally adjusted index, UK house prices have tumbled by more than 4% since August 2022.

While they have a little further to fall in the coming months, they should start to recover from the spring, says Deutsche Bank’s UK chief economist Sanjay Raja.
“Lower rate expectations should entice buyers back into the market,” he says. “We are expecting a 2% pick-up in house prices from Q2 onwards to the end of the year.” Capital Economics now expects price growth of 3% this year, having previously forecast a 1.5% drop. Pantheon Macroeconomics has also forecast that house prices will rise by 5% between April and December this year.

Faster-than-expected drops in inflation mean analysts expect much earlier interest rate cuts from the Bank of England. This optimism has fuelled a mortgage price war as lenders jump on the prospect of lower borrowing costs.
This has already driven average mortgage rates to a six-month low, as Capital Economics expects average two-year fixed rates to plateau at 4.6% over the next six months before falling to 3.8% by the end of the year.This in turn will boost affordability as buyers will see their savings stretch further.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/13/house-prices-rise-rishi-sunak-election/

“Tumbled by more than 4%” 😂so dramatic while it’s barely noticeable in real life. They could write the exact opposite articles based on the same speculative view. What can you do Torygraph will Torygraph ahead of elections.

Agree a 4% reduction in house prices since August 22 isn't much of a tumble 😂

Is anybody familiar with the North London Market in places like Camden, Islington and surrounding areas?

I'm familiar with the Kentish town/Tufnell park area not so much Camden?

What your take in the Market? Do you think prices are increase or slightly less etc

I wanted to move around Hampstead - not sure if its a good time to move.

I keep an eye on properties around that area and it seems to me like they have stayed about the same or maybe even increased slightly from when my daughter bought in the Kentish town/Tufnell park area in May 2022.

I'm a bit surprised as we were actually expecting them to fall in the short term when she bought in London, but I don't see any evidence of it happening so far. Nice flats still seem to go under offer within a few weeks so I'm assuming they achieve close to the asking price but won't know that for sure for a few months when the data is published.

It's definitely not the worst time to buy because the market isn't as crazy as it was during the stamp duty holiday & fixed term interest rates are starting to fall slightly. But whether it's better to wait a few more months or until 2025 I honestly couldn't tell you. But Hampstead is lovely and always so desirable - can't see prices falling there much ever.

Sadly house price inflation is a fact in this country and always has been.

Other European countries don’t have the same desire for property ownership and have far far better assured tenancy agreements long term.

But it’s a fact that supply and demand and obviously interest rates and stamp duty adjustments drive the market. Realistically things may stagnant, there may be falling demand and falling prices by certain percentages but crashes of 50% nowadays are just pie in the sky.

There’s always the understandable wishful ftb wanting such a crash but the economy would tank.

If you are in the fortunate position of being able to buy and get on with your life realistically it makes sense to do so.