Page 2 | House prices

CrashyTime · 14/12/2023 15:41

ibelieveinmirrorballs · 13/12/2023 20:57

@CrashyTime the point here is that if you are going to be repeatedly relying on the same source whilst chiding other people for Failing Not To Be Idiots, one might have assumed that you had fact checked said data source. Otherwise… heaven forfend - you could fall prey to confirmation bias and simply be sharing something that happens to reflect your existing views 😱

Do you think most people could explain the methodology that RM use to pump out their "statistics"? I am not relying on the source for anything, I like how the graphs highlight the obvious changes that anyone can see going on in their own backyard - houses are just not selling like they used to - I rely on the fact that borrowing costs have increased and this will have an effect on a market based on cheap debt. Can you link to anything that says Plumplot numbers are not accurate?

CrashyTime · 14/12/2023 15:43

XVGN · 14/12/2023 11:20

Here's the RICS monthly.

https://www.rics.org/news-insights/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey

"The November 2023 RICS UK Residential Survey results point to a slightly improved outlook for market activity going forward, with sentiment supported by a modest easing in mortgage rates over recent weeks. That said, near-term sales expectations are only marginally positive at this stage, while most other indicators tracked remain in negative territory (albeit to a lesser extent than previously). "

Howard will be no help to me and @Twiglets1 resolving our bet. Talk about sitting on the fence!

"Howard Davis , Bristol, , [email protected] - The Bristol market is correcting. We have already seen prices fall by 5% to 10% and this trend is likely to continue. Family houses are likely to find their level soon as demand for central houses is steady. Flats however will have a little way to go."

https://www.plumplot.co.uk/Bristol-county-property-transactions.html

Bristol-county property sales volumes in maps and graphs.

Between 11/2022-10/2023, there were 4.8k property sales and sales dropped by 25.4%. 34 properties, 0.7% were sales of a newly built property.

https://www.plumplot.co.uk/Bristol-county-property-transactions.html

KievLoverTwo · 14/12/2023 16:03

CrashyTime · 14/12/2023 15:41

Do you think most people could explain the methodology that RM use to pump out their "statistics"? I am not relying on the source for anything, I like how the graphs highlight the obvious changes that anyone can see going on in their own backyard - houses are just not selling like they used to - I rely on the fact that borrowing costs have increased and this will have an effect on a market based on cheap debt. Can you link to anything that says Plumplot numbers are not accurate?

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Oh, so you're backtracking now?

Because last night, you said you use Plumplot because it's been around for years. You suggested it must come from credible sources for that reason. But until I pushed and pushed you, you were only ASSUMING they take their data from credible sources, you didn't actually know, because, I presume, you'd never bothered to check.

Now you're saying you just like the way it looks. Whereas before, you have repeatedly linked to Plumplot to demonstrate house price falls BEFORE YOU KNEW WHERE THEY SOURCE THEIR INFORMATION FROM.

Gaslighting posters such as @ibelieveinmirrorballs for OTHER PEOPLE using Rightmove's house price index as what you perceive to be a dubious source of information whilst not knowing WHERE YOUR OWN INFORMATION IS SOURCED FROM is not helping your credibility @CrashyTime.

CrashyTime · 14/12/2023 16:46

KievLoverTwo · 14/12/2023 16:03

Oh, so you're backtracking now?

Because last night, you said you use Plumplot because it's been around for years. You suggested it must come from credible sources for that reason. But until I pushed and pushed you, you were only ASSUMING they take their data from credible sources, you didn't actually know, because, I presume, you'd never bothered to check.

Now you're saying you just like the way it looks. Whereas before, you have repeatedly linked to Plumplot to demonstrate house price falls BEFORE YOU KNEW WHERE THEY SOURCE THEIR INFORMATION FROM.

Gaslighting posters such as @ibelieveinmirrorballs for OTHER PEOPLE using Rightmove's house price index as what you perceive to be a dubious source of information whilst not knowing WHERE YOUR OWN INFORMATION IS SOURCED FROM is not helping your credibility @CrashyTime.

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Can you post up the source that says Plumplot is not accurate? I don`t need to have "credibility", everyone knows that those graphs are more or less spot on for watching the trend.

KievLoverTwo · 14/12/2023 16:48

CrashyTime · 14/12/2023 16:46

Can you post up the source that says Plumplot is not accurate? I don`t need to have "credibility", everyone knows that those graphs are more or less spot on for watching the trend.

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everyone knows that those graphs are more or less spot on for watching the trend

Show me the posts where people say this.

CrashyTime · 14/12/2023 16:52

KievLoverTwo · 14/12/2023 16:48

everyone knows that those graphs are more or less spot on for watching the trend

Show me the posts where people say this.

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The posts wont be on here (as you well know!) people with a VI dont like seeing reality laid out in graph form.......

Can you take any Plumplot link I have posted and post a source that says those numbers are wrong?

Timewentfast · 14/12/2023 16:54

Personal experience here as just sold a house. In 2019 this house (same street, same house type) was going for £115K. During peak they went to closing date for £160k. As peak fell away one sold quickly for £150K but no closing date. I've just sold one that needs a full upgrade for £125K. It took 3 weeks to sell and no closing date. We definately didn't pay the surveyor to value it. I wasn't even there when he did his inspection and didn't speak to him at all.

My feeling is at the peak of the market we would have got 130k for it, maybe even at a push 135k as it is very obviously needing work (very grubby inside, blown double glazing, 40year old kitchen and bathroom, no central heating etc).

So I would say market has lost it's craziness but things at still selling in a reasonable timescale and still for prices above 2019. Make of that what you will.

Timewentfast · 14/12/2023 16:57

p.s. that was north scotland (not far north like highlands or anything but 40 miles from Edinburgh )

XVGN · 14/12/2023 17:01

Timewentfast · 14/12/2023 16:57

p.s. that was north scotland (not far north like highlands or anything but 40 miles from Edinburgh )

Perth? Lovely city. Dundee? Too expensive!

electriclight · 14/12/2023 17:04

I am watching three popular towns in my area and several different new build developments. They haven't sold one in weeks. All plots reduced and with financial offers and incentives on top. Now also offering gift cards and other gimmicky treats. Local people all said prices of existing stock would never come down in one of those towns - outstanding schools and so on, very popular. Yet prices are steadily reducing. EA friends are comparing it to 2008 in terms of activity.

Timewentfast · 14/12/2023 17:06

XVGN · 14/12/2023 17:01

Perth? Lovely city. Dundee? Too expensive!

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Not in any city. In a village

KievLoverTwo · 14/12/2023 17:22

CrashyTime · 14/12/2023 16:52

The posts wont be on here (as you well know!) people with a VI dont like seeing reality laid out in graph form.......

Can you take any Plumplot link I have posted and post a source that says those numbers are wrong?

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No, because I don't care.

I only cared about your credibility.

Now that it's been established that you don't even care about your own credibility, despite persistently posting on this forum that house prices will crash for years, I don't need anything else from you, nor do I feel the need to prove anything to you, nor even converse with you - ever again.

CrashyTime · 14/12/2023 18:08

electriclight · 14/12/2023 17:04

I am watching three popular towns in my area and several different new build developments. They haven't sold one in weeks. All plots reduced and with financial offers and incentives on top. Now also offering gift cards and other gimmicky treats. Local people all said prices of existing stock would never come down in one of those towns - outstanding schools and so on, very popular. Yet prices are steadily reducing. EA friends are comparing it to 2008 in terms of activity.

Good to hear, people always seem to think prices will stay up in their backyard for some reason that is "unique" to their backyard, I think most of the time they are just kidding themselves.

staycaysandvacays · 14/12/2023 18:31

Can I join? We plan to put our house in the midlands up early next year and start looking in the Home Counties.

We have HTB on our house so we won't be able to put it up for less than it's been valued at or negotiate below that. We've been keeping an eye on similar houses in our area and they are going for around what we'd like anyway so would be good to see what our valuation is. Hoping for a calmer property market next year!

hermioneee · 14/12/2023 18:34

@staycaysandvacays get it valued by a surveyor after you get the offer and tell them what the offer was. You don't have to sell it for more than what someone wants to pay for it.
We paid back less than what we borrowed on HTB as our house went down in value.

XVGN · 14/12/2023 18:34

staycaysandvacays · 14/12/2023 18:31

Can I join? We plan to put our house in the midlands up early next year and start looking in the Home Counties.

We have HTB on our house so we won't be able to put it up for less than it's been valued at or negotiate below that. We've been keeping an eye on similar houses in our area and they are going for around what we'd like anyway so would be good to see what our valuation is. Hoping for a calmer property market next year!

Good luck. If I may, I recommend keeping an eye on your postcode and area using houseprices.io.

staycaysandvacays · 14/12/2023 18:41

hermioneee · 14/12/2023 18:34

@staycaysandvacays get it valued by a surveyor after you get the offer and tell them what the offer was. You don't have to sell it for more than what someone wants to pay for it.
We paid back less than what we borrowed on HTB as our house went down in value.

Our broker told us with HTB you have to have it valued first?

So how did you price your house to put it on the market?

staycaysandvacays · 14/12/2023 18:42

@XVGN thank you! That's very helpful

CrashyTime · 14/12/2023 18:52

hermioneee · 14/12/2023 18:34

@staycaysandvacays get it valued by a surveyor after you get the offer and tell them what the offer was. You don't have to sell it for more than what someone wants to pay for it.
We paid back less than what we borrowed on HTB as our house went down in value.

Many people will be in the same situation I should think.

hermioneee · 14/12/2023 18:55

I wasn't bothered by it @CrashyTime !

hermioneee · 14/12/2023 19:01

Sorry @staycaysandvacays I misremembered what we did (was a few years ago now)
Got the EA valuation and decided what we wanted to sell for
Got a surveyor round and told them what the EA had said. They valued it at that price (we didn't specifically ask them for this but obviously they knew it was for HTB so knew the rules.
When the offer came in a few £k below asking price we went back to the surveyor and told them; they updated the valuation accordingly. We then shared that with HTB.

staycaysandvacays · 14/12/2023 19:14

hermioneee · 14/12/2023 19:01

Sorry @staycaysandvacays I misremembered what we did (was a few years ago now)
Got the EA valuation and decided what we wanted to sell for
Got a surveyor round and told them what the EA had said. They valued it at that price (we didn't specifically ask them for this but obviously they knew it was for HTB so knew the rules.
When the offer came in a few £k below asking price we went back to the surveyor and told them; they updated the valuation accordingly. We then shared that with HTB.

Perfect, that's really helpful. Thank you!

LGBirmingham · 15/12/2023 21:13

Twiglets1 · 13/12/2023 17:03

Hi Guys, we got to the end of the last thread so need another one on this controversial topic!

And to respond to @CrashyTime I don't say "demand is strong" over and over again. In fact, I rarely comment on demand at all. My posts are more focussed on house prices and interest rates/mortgage rates.

And I don't deny economic "reality", I just don't exaggerate how bad the house price correction is likely to be. I have a running bet with @XVGN that property prices generally will fall about 5% in 2023 and another 5% in 2024 so I do believe prices are falling in most areas. Just nothing like the 30-35% crash predicted by some!

Thank for setting it up @Twiglets1 I'm not even sure prices are falling that much over here. As I said before I would welcome a crash, but doesn't seem to be happening. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Original poster

Twiglets1 · 16/12/2023 06:40

LGBirmingham · 15/12/2023 21:13

Thank for setting it up @Twiglets1 I'm not even sure prices are falling that much over here. As I said before I would welcome a crash, but doesn't seem to be happening. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

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I agree prices aren’t falling in every area, in some they are stagnating or even rising. There is not just one “property market” in reality.

OP posts:

LGBirmingham · 16/12/2023 07:33

Twiglets1 · 16/12/2023 06:40

I agree prices aren’t falling in every area, in some they are stagnating or even rising. There is not just one “property market” in reality.

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I would hasten to add I'm not looking at land registry data or this plum plot thing, I have a 3 year old so no time for that. I just look at right move every now and then and see the asking prices on there. Often things are listed as 'reduced' at the same price as they were before the 'reduction'. But could well be that the ones which sell are going for less than asking price.