House prices

[Twiglets1]

Hi Guys, we got to the end of the last thread so need another one on this controversial topic!

And to respond to @CrashyTime I don't say "demand is strong" over and over again. In fact, I rarely comment on demand at all. My posts are more focussed on house prices and interest rates/mortgage rates.

And I don't deny economic "reality", I just don't exaggerate how bad the house price correction is likely to be. I have a running bet with @XVGN that property prices generally will fall about 5% in 2023 and another 5% in 2024 so I do believe prices are falling in most areas. Just nothing like the 30-35% crash predicted by some!

Yes and demand in this country will only increase as climate change develops. Ours is one of the countries that will continue to be more habitable. Everyone will need to come here.

This is such an interesting point - I wonder of flooding will become more of an issue here in the UK, but overall, a cooler, wetter climate is a great deal more habitable than a hot, dry one.

Also not to mention that our country is literally going to get smaller due in rising sea levels. Look at Fairborne for example. Fairbourne: the village that could be lost to the sea - Greenpeace UK

In this context, I wonder what the property market is like there 😬

I imagine if you were elderly it would make sense to pick up a retirement property there. One would assume they are going for a steal. I haven't looked into it though.

'Definitely. It won't happen, but imagine some form of government legislation to keep house prices as they are now'

That literally is stagnation of nominal prices with real term falls (as mentioned above).

Legislation could have been introduced and could still be introduced to encourage downward pressure on house prices. Whether any government would do it is another question.

Yes, perhaps in the much longer term future.
In the short term, however, the well off are much more likely to be leaving, with the high taxes and Labour introducing even higher taxes. In terms of immigration, the UK has lost a lot of its international respect, is in a precarious economic situation and things are obviously collapsing rather- see the NHS and the water companies pumping raw sewage into rivers. Changes in policy are already leading to less applications for visas.

Government legislating on prices?
You don't need to be a rabid pro-neoliberalism libertarian to browse through an history book and remind yourself that these things never work.

Also, be careful what you wish for. Hate landlords all you want, but if you make it too complicated and costly to be a landlord, there will be fewer properties to rent, making rent harder and more expensive. Which s exactly what has been happening. And, to be clear, I say it as someone who has never been a landlord and who has their fair share of bad experiences with them.

This is a huge issue in Florida. Florida has been having a real estate boom, but this boom is subsided by the State insuring all the many houses which private insurers deem uninsurable because of flood risks, hurricane risks etc.

Don't you love it how free-market Republicans want State intervention when the free market doesn't give them what they want??

I am not sure if climate change and extreme weather events are making significant parts of the UK uninsurable

news.sky.com/story/house-prices-growing-at-fastest-rate-in-nearly-two-years-uks-biggest-building-society-says-13205813

Interest rates and inflation started going up about 2 1/2 years ago. Now they have both been coming down.
So house prices growing at the fastest rate in two years really means: house prices going up more now that inflation and rates are both coming down, than when they both started to go up. Hardly surprising.

No, I can't imagine it would work on any practical level. An interesting thought experiment, though.

Halifax House Price Index August 2024:

 House prices increased by +0.3% in August, after +0.9% rise in July
 Year-on-year prices are up +4.3%, the strongest rate since November 2022
 Higher annual growth largely reflects the base impact of weaker prices a year ago
 Typical property now costs £292,505 (compared to £291,585 in July), highest since August 2022

Northern Ireland continues to record the strongest property price growth of any nation or region in the UK, rising by +9.8% on an annual basis in August. The average price of a property in Northern Ireland is now £201,043.
House prices in Wales also recorded strong growth, up +5.5%, compared to the previous year, with properties now costing an average of £224,433.
Scotland saw a more modest rise in house prices, where a typical property now costs £205,144, +1.7% more than the year before.
The North West once again recorded the strongest house price growth of any region in England, up by +4.0% over the last year, to sit at £232,917.
London continues to have the most expensive property prices in the UK, now averaging £536,056, up +1.5% compared to last year.

https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/august-2024-halifax-house-price-index.pdf

Prices creeping back up towards all time highs, further proof prices will be higher in 2025 than 2020

The latest Acadata House Price Index for August 2024 has been published, if anyone is interested in a different viewpoint.

It would be an absolute disaster if not, considering how much inflation we have had over that period ;)

http://www.acadata.co.uk/services/house-price-index/

Small annual nominal falls in most area with small rises in the very North or England and Scotland. London and SE have fallen the most, central areas of London appear to have seen very large falls.

Small annual nominal falls in most areas

Large inflation adjusted falls in most areas

FIFY

Oh dear @rainingsnoring deleted by mumsnet HQ - did you mention Trump or something?!?!

lol

Someone obviously upset. Nothing controversial was mentioned!

When you challenge someone else’s point of view it can be a threat to their entire existence if they’re weak minded enough.

I get an awful lot of it in work which I won’t go into but some people furiously attack the messenger when they don’t want to hear what’s being said.

I can’t see house prices dropping anything substantial, it’s a supply and demand issue

It seems to happen quite a lot nowadays, sadly. Differing views are often not tolerated and meet with attacks. This is a general comment and not just related to this board at all- so many examples in the media.

UK House Price Index for July 2024 (yet another house price index)

The July data shows:

• on average, house prices have risen 0.6% since June 2024
• there has been an annual price rise of 2.2% which makes the average property in the UK valued at £289,000

As always, there are many regional variations identified. In England, prices have risen the most over the last year in the North East (3.8%) plus Yorkshire and the Humber (3.7%). Prices have risen the least in the South East (0.5%), and the East of England (0.3%) while they have fallen in London by 0.4%.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-july-2024