Prepping for a pandemic...12

[wheresmymojo]

Thread 12!

I can't seem to carry over the clicky links in the OP of the last thread. Can anyone else?

I understand, @AlohaMolly the Reddit thread left me feeling the same. Just.. quite full of despair and horror at the people who will suffer - whether that is me/my family or not isn't really the point. It's just so horrible.
I took some screenshots of the thread because I thought maybe it will eventually get pulled.

I’m sure you’re right @HasaDigaEebowai This isn’t the article but covers a similar topic

I'm not sure using the daily mirror to back up your point makes it more valid. Eton could have used the ethics question "is killing a pretty butterfly worse than killing an ugly caterpillar?" and the mirror would find fault with it. Lets all focus on prepping and not attacking schools.

Couple of interesting graphs...

Outside of China cases are roughly doubling every 4 days now...

So say we are c.40k now
4 days time = 80k
8 days time = 160k
12 days time = 320k
16 days = 640k

Will be interesting to see if that's the case.

16 days is 26th March. If it continued to show 3.5% mortality = 22,500 deaths outside China.

I think expedentail type cases will start soon and we will be lockdown in two weeks time.

I guess its peak means that we get the first round of huge growth in number before it starts to decline again.

With any other virus you would then have a fire break of previously infected and immune populations but that will be low in numbers at the start hence a few more clusters and peaks until the vaccine.

But it's all just a guess isn't it?

@AmelieTaylor I buy Quorn mince for my vegetarian son. I get it from the frozen cabinet at Waitrose. He's tried a lot of vegetarian and vegan meat substitutes and really likes it. He likes the Quorn sausages and bacon too, though personally I think the bacon is awful! Hth.

@wheresmymojo 40 k now?? Am I reading it right!! I can’t believe it.. how closer is 40k to reality are we talking??

quorn is great and we use the chunks a lot but the benefit of the dried soya mince from a prepping perspective is that it doesn't take up freezer space, its super light and it lasts for months and months.

@Elsa8 💐💐

@itsnotjustflu - I can't find any details anywhere with new numbers.

Re taper off / decline - It would also be interesting to know exactly when it kicked off in China.

@Fuckthiswind - Thankyou, it's my unfortunate pleasure.

@AlohaMolly - same here. I've got no underlying health conditions, no major concerns. It's just my DS2 who does have several health conditions and that they've both been so ill lately. It's distressing to not be able to get medical help for (potentially) a non-CV illness. I have felt like I've let them both down at points, keeping them at home when they really should have been in hospital. It's a tough call.

That's why I'd say get a new thermometer, batteries, ear covers or whatever. And a pulse oximeter. You'll feel a little more in control. Start using them now - get to know your family's normal. Record them in an app. I've found the temporal artery thermometer much less stressful (the ear one hurt when they had high temps - neither had ear infections).

the UK wont lock down until we are in the thousands of cases to prevent unrest. By then people will be too scared to leave the house!

Trouble is, large employers like mine are following PHE advice to the letter. There are currently only 2 ways I could self isolate. Either schools close and I can say I need to work remotely for to lack of childcare, or government advice to have staff work remotely. Otherwise, I have to leave the house and I'm obliged to go in even if everyone I work with is coughing madly, even if there are cases reported among parts of the workforce etc if I want to keep my job. Many people won't be able to choose to work from home, they need the government to make it official.

I think China took a while to get to its peak. The doctor that died said he'd seen cases in December and that's when he warned about it all

I'm a bit scared of the consequences of pulling DS out of school..as much as I want to. A son of a friend of mine has medical problems. His attendance is 40% because of it. She had numerous meetings about it and was threated with 1k fine and possible jail. Luckily as he was so ill doctor was on her side and fought her corner. Had he not have been she'd had been in terrible trouble. I think once 10 days has passed they start getting serious. Easy option if they are in an undersubscribed school is to home educate. All that takes is a letter. I'm having trouble convincing DH though. He loves a spat and wants to challenge them if we just pull him with no authorisation. It's stressing me out. But do be careful folks. We need to time it right but equally not leave it too late.

Regular poster, namechanged.

Can someone advise me if freezing kills the virus please ?

I am deliberately not eating uncooked food but longing for some bread. I wonder if the virus will have been killed by freezing it.

And I agree. It feels like we have to wait for this to get worse before action is taken...I blame the doubters

I can't see us being anywhere near peak in two weeks, from all that we have seen we will be at the start of an upward trajectory towards peak.
It doesn't look like Italy has hit peak yet and they are said to be two weeks ahead of us.

deaths are non-productive agree it looks like Boris is taking this morally bankrupt attitude. It's not even true. Many pensioners continue to pay tax. Many many younger people have underlying conditions that are well managed and they work full-time. The previous PM is over 60 with an underlying condition (type 1 diabetes). I also don't think the economy will recover quickly if we "get it over with". Someone posted a link either this thread or the one originally in AIBU. Written by business analysts. They believe the economy will be more damaged long-term if things get as bad as Italy than it would if we took temporarily disruptive measures.

The Reddit doctor. If only they were in charge instead of Boris. As they say, our government approach is so short-sighted.

The critical cases not being reported in the press. Because of a D notice? Why are the media obeying? Do they have to, or is it some kind of gentleman's agreement? The government's desperate denial and downplaying is so dangerous. It's why people like the person I spoke to today aren't taking it seriously enough. She's one of the "it's only flu brigade".

Two different people volunteered their 'it's just like flu' BS to me today. One of them is my dad in his 70s with an autoimmune condition, still travelling on the tube etc. I tried to persuade him, I do worry about it.

There are a lot of people asking about taking children out of school and subsequent fines. I am an education welfare officer and have been for 14 years. I don't think any member of school staff, headteacher or LA staff (EWOs) are going to suggest or agree that parents remove children from school prior to official advice. Firstly I think all parents have to make decisions in the best interests of their children. But secondly I wouldn't expect to be issuing any fines in these circumstances (I can't obviously speak for any other LA than my own). The issue really boils down to that if a fine isn't paid, we need to have sufficient evidence to prove in court that the local authority have acted reasonably and that the fine was issued reasonably. I suspect that in a scenario of prosecuting for non school
Attendance in the middle of this coronavirus outbreak, our legal team would advise us that it wouldn't meet the legal tests to go ahead with prosecution. The exceptions are likely to be families with prior attendance issues, already open to education welfare etc. I would just ask all
Parents to be honest with schools so that they know where your children are and people like me aren't having to go out and knock on your doors to find out!

I really strongly doubt it will peak in the UK in two weeks. Two weeks it will really kick off. Then going on China numbers a month to peak from.then - or longer. We are not doing what China are. The less lockdown and the less action later the more it will RIP through us in one go.

The Gov are hoping for smaller, spaced out peaks. I doubt they avoid one major hit.

I'm.trying not be scared for me. But I'm am scared for my mum, my community.

I dont trust Gov but then since I had a disabled child I never have. It will be hard times for sure. But it will be ok.

All these mixed messages are making me nervous. Some schools with confirmed cases are shut others have no plans to shut at all....not even deep clean. Something is wrong.....

thanks @hubblebubbletoilandtrubble that's interesting to know

I think freezing kills the virus. Didnt we have a screen shot somewhere saying other corna viruses extremes of temps they can tolerate?

I think I have scared the poop out of myself. I'm going to take a breather ( and a medicinal cider)

Yes it seems the start of growth is 2 weeks with peak lasting 9-12 week

Any ideas on how long growth until peak will take?

If peak is potentially 12 weeks with growth towards that added..., that’s a long time

Total shutdown in Wuhan has been, what, nearly 2m?

@tryingtoprep / I agree, and human cost aside...many grandparents look after grandchildren

@hubblebubbletoilandtrubble - massively useful info, thank you 🌷

Just been chatting to a friend, she thinks the time to pull shutters is at 820 cases, 11days ago in Italy’s time scale - any thoughts?

Lego, same, I’m absolutely shitting myself now. Need to watch Celebs Go Dating or somert

AIBU will be delighted to make a thread about how I’m shitting myself

Good job me for getting loo roll in January

@itsnotjustflu

The doubters are following Johnson’s lead. He’s not following theirs / that crap about people getting bored of restrictions. He’s not stepping up to making the gravity clear as part of his strategy

@AmelieTaylor

I'm planning on just staying where I am and not travelling back anymore.

A few more trips to the supermarket then i'll just try to stay indoors as much as I can.