Prepping For A Pandemic ....9

[ItsNotJustTheFuckingFlu]

wheresmojo asked at the end of thread eight if other posters could keep an eye on threads filling up and start new ones if possible as she’s busy this week and may not have the time, saw thread 8 getting full so thought would start number 9 before going to bed. Thank you to ofwarren for the live updates too. I’ve copied and pasted the info that wheresmymojo has included in every thread, hopefully formatting doesn’t mess up.

Anxiety

As Preppers we tend to look at a reasonable worst case scenario to plan for. Everyone is welcome on the thread but if you find it makes you anxious be kind to yourself and think about sticking to once daily updates from the BBC or similar thanks

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Prepping Scenarios

Most of us are prepping for the following situations:

• Wanting to stay indoors for 2-4 weeks + in case of a local outbreak / schools being closed

• Potentially being ill with a flu type illness lasting 2-3 weeks with one or more of the household having the illness

• Having to take a family member to hospital for COVID or any other reason during an outbreak

Prepping Items

Threads 1&2 have lists of things to think about to prep for the first scenario as do the Brexit prepping threads.

Main differences/additions to something like the Brexit list are:

• Face masks if you can get them for any trips you have to make in public during an outbreak. These don't offer full protection and cannot be 100% relied upon but are probably better than nothing if you make sure you wear them correctly and dispose of them correctly. N95 masks are best but expensive and harder to wear, surgical face masks are second best. Dust masks are not going to help.

• Hand sanitiser needs to be 60% or more alcohol content

• Dettol / bleach / Miltons to disinfect. Not all disinfectants work but these three do

• Plenty of at home/over counter treatments for flu type symptoms should you need to treat at home

• Tissues (lots of) should you catch the virus

• Think about meals that are easy to cook and eat should you be ill or both parents be ill at the same time (soup for example)

• For a potential hospital trip you may want to prep a 'go bag' should you need to take someone to hospital with the virus (or anything else) during an outbreak. See Thread 1&2 for examples of what people are packing

• Frequent and thorough hand washing, not touching your face and social distancing (no handshakes, hugs, etc) are some of the most effective ways to stay virus free

Other Thoughts

India have announced that they are stopping exports of some antibiotics, hormone treatments and vitamin supplements as they rely on China for raw materials.

Many factories that supplied fibre for use in sanitary towels and tampons are being diverted to manufacture face masks. Consider stocking up or changing to sustainable items (cloth STs, mooncup, period pants)

If you bulk buy hand gel with a high alcohol content make sure it is stored somewhere safe other than the one you’re using. It is flammable!

@Legoandloldolls

Around 65,000 people??

I find it odd that WHO say act NOW but Boris is saying wait ?

@MoonlightMistletoe yes I just did some quick maths on 1% of 80% of current UK population and got just over 540k. Half a million. Nothing to worry about

So what I got from Patrick is that there is a plan which they will put in place at the right time... not doing it too early but mentioned 12 weeks of containment, I think this is how long they will shit schools, my guess end in a couple of weeks. Im prepping now to be at home with the DCs from Easter until Sept!

Agree with all posts above

This is beyond weak, insipid, happy clappy Oh Boris-you’re-such-a-rogue

Disgraceful

Yes I think that's right. UK population is 66.44 million

@rhij86 550,000 deaths is the number the media touted a couple of weeks ago too

Is 1% 540000?

Around that. It would definitely be over 500,000.

I hate Boris with quite a passion but right now basic sanitary measures and self-quarantining are going to be the best, most realistic things that we can do to contain it. I get that the advice to schools has been wishy-washy in some cases and if my kids were meant to be going to school with someone off the plane from Italy last week with a chesty cough...yeah I would decide that for myself I think.

80% of the UK infected is the worse case scenario for the UK. They expect it to much, much lower but planning for the worse case ( hopefully staggered out but over what period I dont know)

Let's try to remember this is the absolute case scenario.

Let's hope they have contingency for this worse case scenario

@NatoPMT so not as scare-mongering as people are accusing them of after all then?
So annoyed at myself for not thinking about prepping sooner

Work have sent a UK wide email this morning stating that all laptop users should take them home daily now, in case an office has to be shut at short notice. TBH using the train and being pregnant I'd much rather just work from home for the forseeable future starting now, but don't think that would go down too well with my line manager.

I'm watching this morning, on there it was said flu deaths were 1.2% and that flu was more deadly then covid19.
From what I have read covid19 was between 2-3% death rate but the UK have it as 1% .
So confusing no wonder people are not taking things seriously if the government are so laid back.

@Legoandloldolls yes very true this is worst case, let's just hope they're doing enough behind the scenes to help the NHS cope.

Well Borris may have just walked in, taken a shit in his hands and clapped for all the good that statement has done.

At what point are the government going to decide that peoples lives are worth more than a loss in revenue ?

That's a long report!!!! So basically what are they saying about schools and businesses and at what point will they shut?

I think the death rate is much much higher than 2-3% tbh............

According to a survey yesterday more than 99% of GPs believe the NHS could not cope with an outbreak of Coronavirus.

Think it was in the Guardian

The chief medical officer, Boris at al said that if they take drastic measure to soon over a 12 month period and start too soon, then there will be major disruption for minimum benefits.

They are saving the most drastic measures for when shtf from what I read between the lines.

But that makes sense? No point bunking down for 12 weeks when only 40 people across the UK have it?

I think that was the gist?

I thought my guess at 65K was bad enough but 500K

I don't understand why they can't make school attendance optional for children with parents who can or already do work from home... surely that would reduce the risk a bit not only for those families who are in a position to do that, but also making it slightly safer for those who do have to go by reducing the number of people they mix with.

Sorry 12 WEEK period

@seeyoubugaboo you could be on to something. Delay/contain until the Easter holidays and then keep the schools closed after? Maybe.
I stopped watching the press conference.

540K possible deaths- sing happy Birthday ?
Are they taking the P?

I can see right through you Boris you are shitting yourself.

My thoughts on the media too Rh ~ not so scaremongery after all

@Alone07 - I read this years US flu numbers were hospitalisation is 1% and death rate 0.1%

It was the 20% vs 1% hospitalisation rates difference that shocked me into realising the impact CV will have on our services

@M0ckingb1rd my thoughts exactly. If we can keep them at home we should be allowed to