Prepping for a pandemic...6

[wheresmymojo]

6th thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

Anxiety

As Preppers we tend to look at a reasonable worst case scenario to plan for. Everyone is welcome on the thread but if you find it makes you anxious be kind to yourself and think about sticking to once daily updates from the BBC or similar

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Prepping Scenarios

Most of us are prepping for the following situations:

• Wanting to stay indoors for 2-4 weeks + in case of a local outbreak / schools being closed

• Potentially being ill with a flu type illness lasting 2-3 weeks with one or more of the household having the illness

• Having to take a family member to hospital for COVID or any other reason during an outbreak

Prepping Items

Threads 1&2 have lists of things to think about to prep for the first scenario as do the Brexit prepping threads.

Main differences/additions to something like the Brexit list are:

• Face masks if you can get them for any trips you have to make in public during an outbreak. These don't offer full protection and cannot be 100% relied upon but are probably better than nothing if you make sure you wear them correctly and dispose of them correctly. N95 masks are best but expensive and harder to wear, surgical face masks are second best. Dust masks are not going to help.

• Hand sanitiser needs to be 60% or more alcohol content

• Dettol / bleach / Miltons to disinfect. Not all disinfectants work but these three do

• Plenty of at home/over counter treatments for flu type symptoms should you need to treat at home

• Tissues (lots of) should you catch the virus

• Think about meals that are easy to cook and eat should you be ill or both parents be ill at the same time (soup for example)

• For a potential hospital trip you may want to prep a 'go bag' should you need to take someone to hospital with the virus (or anything else) during an outbreak. See Thread 1&2 for examples of what people are packing

• Frequent and thorough hand washing, not touching your face and social distancing (no handshakes, hugs, etc) are some of the most effective ways to stay virus free

Other Thoughts

India have announced that they are stopping exports of some antibiotics, hormone treatments and vitamin supplements as they rely on China for raw materials.

Many factories that supplied fibre for use in sanitary towels and tampons are being diverted to manufacture face masks. Consider stocking up or changing to sustainable items (cloth STs, mooncup, period pants)

This is a repost from a previous thread. I thought maybe people new to this board might find it helpful.

As with everything, there is a cost element to this and being financially prepared is an important part of prepping so I offer you options. The options are also there in case the SHTF as Preppers say! In a long-term scenario, if this did become a pandemic, it could possibly have a knock on effect on supplies such as water and electricity (if people are ill and not able to work.)

Being prepped is about being prepared, not panicking. In the population right now, around 10% of us will be quietly preparing (which is why we can feel so isolated in this), 80% will be looking around at the news, social media and each other, to see what everyone else is doing and then follow their lead. The final 10% will be panicking but not prepping.

So I will divide my suggestions up as follows:
• Important - buy now if you can, whilst others are still observing and supplies are still left.
• Options - meaning other suggestions if you have the money, storage room and inclination.
• SHTF - Options for if the Shit Hit The Fan, and there is a full blown pandemic and life as we know it changes.
Remember, if you prep as much as possible from the Important category, and cannot prep anymore due to space or finances, you will have still done more than 90% of the population.

WATER
• Important:

• Bottled water, 2 litres per person per day.

• Options:

• Water purification tablets. These are cheap & available at Amazon.
• Bleach (unperfumed) can be used to purify water.

• SHTF:

• WaterBOB. This sits inside your bath and you fill it up, giving you lots of extra water for washing and cleaning.
• Water carrier (foldable) in case you need to transport water from somewhere else.
• Water filtration system like Life Straws.

FOOD:
There are online prepping calculators that can help you decide what is “enough” to feed your family for a certain time. There have been many suggestions on here already, so these are additional options.
• Important:

• Manual can opener.
• Salt, sugar.
• Milk. Powdered and long life.
• Tins of fruit and vegetables your family likes to eat.
• Dried fruit (Yo-yo bears.)
• Wholewheat crackers/ tortillas (you can freeze them).
• Cooking essentials. Cooking oil, foil, clingfilm/ beeswax cover, bicarbonate of soda (can be used for heartburn, antibacterial mouthwash, deodorant and as a kitchen cleaner as well as for baking.)
• Fish. Tins of tuna, salmon and mackerel.

• Options:

• Cous cous.
• Porridge Oats.
• Pasta and pasta sauces.
• Tinned new potatoes.
• Rice. White rice keeps longer than brown.
• Stock cubes and gravy.
• Tinned tomatoes.
• Pudding. Rice pudding, custard.
• Peanut butter (if you don’t have an allergy.) Packed full of nutrients, energy boost and lasts for ages.
• Honey. Can be used as sweetener and for antibacterial and medicinal purposes.

• SHTF:

• Bread mixes, 2lb loaf tin or flour, yeast.
• Sprouter and seeds to sprout.
• Easy growing salad seeds e.g. lettuce, tomatoes.
• Vacuum packed food.
• Knife sharpener.
• BioLite Wood-burning camp kitchen.

PANDEMIC SUPPLIES:
• Important:

• Masks.
• Goggles.
• Disposable gloves.
• Strong black bin bags for waste disposal.
• Antibacterial wipes and hand gel.
• Disinfectant and bleach.
• Antibacterial laundry detergent.
• Tissues.
• Toilet paper.

• Options:

• Sponge scouters, kitchen cloths, washing up liquid, kitchen roll.
• Toiletries. Body wash, shampoo. Extra toothpaste and toothbrushes.
• Sanitary products. Moon Cup and reusable panty liners.
• Contact lens solution.
• Plastic dust sheets to create isolation room/ space.
• 3M protective coverall.
• Shoe covers.
• Ear plugs.

• SHTF:

• Paper napkins.
• Plastic cutlery to save water.
• Paper plates to save water.

MEDICINE:
• Important:

• Pain killers.
• Vitamins.
• Perscription medicine.
• Cold and flu remedies.
• Cough medicine.
• Diarrhoea medicine. Rehydration salts.
• First Aid Kit.
• Pocket sized book on family first aid.

• SHTF:

• Hayfever and allergy relief.
• Dental supplies. Antibacterial mouthwash, temporary tooth filling kit, clove oil for toothache.

OTHER:
• Important:

• Baby supplies.
• Cash. Combination of banknotes and change.
• Information. Photo of your children, emergency contact information (written down), paper and pens.
• Duct tape. Useful for so many things, including creating an isolation room if someone is ill.
• Pet supplies. Think about creating an emergency pet kit with pet food, water, pet first aid/ medicine, water bowl, blanket, toys. Keep inside it a copy of your vets contact details and any information about up to date vaccines. Maybe also keep a photo of you and your pet.
• Fire. Matches & lighters. Firelighters.
• Spare batteries.
• Torch.

• Options:

• Solar panel charger.
• Rechargeable batteries.
• Power Bank. Portable power charger.
• Candles.
• Hot water bottle.

• SHTF:

• Map of local area in case you need to find rivers, streams, ponds, lakes for water supplies.
• Blankets in case no heating. You can also buy emergency survival blankets cheaply.
• Fire striker to make fire.
• Fastenings like cable ties, parachute cord, string.
• Sewing kit. To repair clothing.
• Tool kit. Hammer, nails. Screwdriver, screws. Wrench. Pliers.
• Gardening. Spade, hoe, heirloom seeds.
• Books: SAS survival guide, wild food, herbal medicine.
• Full tank of petrol.

I have found the Nest Egg app a great way to keep tabs on my prepping supplies; you can list items in categories like the ones suggested and locations so you know where to find them. You can also add notes and expiry dates.

Also think about;
• Emergency Plan.
So everyone in your family knows what to do in case of emergency. Think about having a plan for work and home.
• Emergency Binder.
Folder containing copies of important personal information you can grab in case of emergency. Paperwork like insurance documents, marriage and birth certificates, NHS number, NI number, passport, bank account information etc. You can also add a copy of your Emergency Plan and checklists.

This is not a definitive list but I hope it is useful.

New case in Greece.

Iran are adding more cases

Korea is increasing numbers quickly. They are not doing as much as China to clamp down on it

I'm running out of space. Arrrghh. Small house, big family (more people than rooms!) and half the house already seems to be filled with giant teenager shoes

The kitchen is full including on top of cupboards. The understairs cupboard has the freezer in it. The sofa has no space underneath (a deliberate choice as the cat used to lose all her toys under the old one. Hindsight!). Under the kitchen table we have toilet rolls/kitchen paper etc (Costco packs so giant!). We have a small storage area outside but it has bikes in (these will get nicked if we take them out even if locked). We can't take the kick boards or bath panel off. Loft is not boarded for storage and there are already enough crates across the joists. My bed doesn't have storage and my wardrobe and on top has my shoes . The airing cupboard has my summer wardrobe and shoes, even vacuum packed they fill it. The DC's rooms are more than full. We have a giant blanket trunk which is filled with bedding (already vacuum packed too!)

I know I sound like a negative nelly but I genuinely can't think of anything else - have I missed anywhere? Winter doesn't help as all the coats and boots seem to take up so much room. We just get through so much food too.

And there is no way I could store enough water for us - although I don't think it will come to that. Hopefully.

I'll just have to fill the bath in an emergency (and I cant remember who said it but yes, I think that idea might have been from The Road! I love that book)

And a death in France.. feels weird not updating on here 😁

This is an interesting article...one para says

Some countries may decide it’s better not to impede the free flow of people too much, keep schools and businesses open, and forgo the quarantining of cities. “That’s quite a big decision to make with regards to public health,” Dye says, “because essentially, it’s saying, ‘We’re going to let this virus go."

My concern is that I'm getting the impression that this is what the UK Govt are going to choose to do.

There is a strong eugenics, survival of the fittest, small Government ethos in power at the moment. I can imagine there is some wrestling going on behind the scenes between PHE and Govt as to what the response will actually be.

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/coronavirus-seems-unstoppable-what-should-world-do-now

Also - not prepping but if anyone is a total nerd like me and has become really interested in all things virus related lately I asked for relevant book recommendations from a Financial Times book club and got this on my kindle:

Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/0099522853/ref=cmswwrcppapiii_oOLvEbKW25TZX

Started reading it yesterday and it is fascinating. It's all about viruses that jump from animals to humans, why it's happening more often now, etc. Non-fiction but written in the most engaging way. I really recommend it for self-isolation reading!

It's quite a big book, 12 hours my kindle says but it's so readable and interesting.

I get the impression this is what they are doing too.

For those worrying about unsupervised children during a lock-in (if adults are indisposed) - one of the first things to do will be to remove passwords/facial recognition/fingerprint id from devices.
I would hope utility companies are already on it with 'lock-in' teams so if there was a need for widespread self-isolating power stations and water plants would be manned.
Although technically on annual leave this week, I myself have been quietly making contingency plans for the small rural residential home I work at, including sourcing extra accommodation for my lock-in team. During short term snow/power problems we make do with z-beds and sofas, but staff will need a little comfort for a longer lock-in.

Home is as prepped as it can be, although I shall continue to shop daily for milk and fresh produce (always my routine as I run past superstore on way home from very early exercise). I've been prepping since 1988 so am quite confident my household could sit it out if nec.

For those worrying about unsupervised children during a lock-in (if adults are indisposed) - one of the first things to do will be to remove passwords/facial recognition/fingerprint id from devices.
I've done this. Scary thought.

On utilities - I read a very detailed UK strategy for pandemic document that I linked to some time ago. Possibly one or two threads ago.

Utilities shouldn't be an issue. A lot is automated so it runs on surprisingly few staff. Plus the document made clear that keeping the utilities going is the number one thing that is protected in the event of any serious pandemic threat. The utility companies were all highly confident that in the event of something akin to Spanish Flu type levels they would have no issues.

I found it reassuring and aren't prepping for any utility outages.

This is the link - it's the preparedness strategy document I'm referring to but lots of info here

www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu

This has probably been asked loads but does anyone know where any masks are still in stock? I have nearly everything else and been resisting buying masks but feel like we will soon have reached a tipping point. I've checked Screwfix etc and can't see any...feel like everyone is really ramping up their preparation in the last day or two!

I really appreciate the updates @ofwarren. I don't have time to follow 2 or 3 threads. I've just been keeping this one open for a mix of news, resources, prepping and chat, and it moves at about the right pace for me. I can't be doing with the volume on AIBU, not to mention the snarkiness. I appreciate some people are having anxiety issues but I'm not sure suppressing your updates is really going to make much difference. JMHO. I still have the Guardian live updating, I guess.

I too have been thinking about veneto and hope things are OK with her family.

Thanks everyone. The thread and the updates are useful.

I read a few mention of a "go bag". Would anyone have a link to a suggested ideal/minimal go bag?

Just a quick oat milk idea, we buy lots of oats as not only are they our breakfast staple (with ground nuts and dried fruit) but i also make oat milk from them. One cup of oats to a litre of water, blend up really well and bottle up to go in the fridge. It will need a shake before using. I do this to reduce our dairy intake for various reasons eg, 2dc with eczema (reduces flare ups).

@WeBuiltCisCityOnSexistRoles

All I can think is kids spare toiletries go in their rooms, they have to find space for them. Toothpaste shower gel etc. Then it is their problem.

Is there space behind the sofa or is it against a radiator?

Do you have a bookshelf with space behind books for a row of tins?

I keep the extra loo cleaning stuff next to the loo. You can also get narrow storage units for that space, if there is any space.

Spaghetti packs are thin, I slide them into smaller spaces.

I have some boxes under the dining room chairs that are against the wall and don't move much.

I'm rushing through the thread to catch up as I've got to go out soon. Thank you @Effieray for that list. Very useful. I'm mostly stocked up. I have another delivery coming today but there's a few more bits I need including extra water.

@ofwarren I really appreciate your updates. Thank you for taking the time. I find it helps to manage any anxiety by being as informed - and therefore as prepared, as possible including mentally. I understand why some people find it stressful as we all deal with things in different ways.

What makes me far more stressed is the "nothing to see here" head in sand attitude. It's important not to panic but denial can be dangerous. I agree with others it looks like the UK government is taking a eugenic based approach, although they'd do well perhaps to remember which age groups vote for them in larger numbers? And plenty of "the sick", aka those with health conditions, hold down full-time jobs, the previous PM being a good example...

I think Italy is handling it far better than we would/will. Don't we have the lowest number of ICU beds per person in the whole of Europe? The hope is the government fear of public outrage, if we see other countries taking better measures, will push them into following suit.

Meanwhile, is Boris still hiding? I haven't seen any news today aside from checking MN.

I walked round the house looking for small places to put small packets. ( Eg cous cous, savoury rice, cupshots)

Name changed for this as feel a bit of an idiot asking Has there been any research as to how long it lives on surfaces? Just opened a parcel from a dear friend who's a nurse in a Tokyo hospital and now having a bit of a moment!

Top of thread, up to 28 days, usually 3-5 days on surfaces.

Masks - I think Scion supply are now out of stock. Have you tried click and collect from Screwfix?
Unsuprisingly those masks left seem to have gone up in price dramatically. the FP1 glorified dusk masks, whcih I understand are better than the surgical masks, used to be say box of ten for £5-7 . I've seen them going for that per mask.
Scion, which I used, had a box of FFP2 this morning 10 masks for about £15,99 leapt up to £49.99 while I was thinking about it. Look at ebay it's bonkers.
I really want 2 more resuseable ones but the cost of them for a large family is prohibitive.

Oops should of thought to read top post agajn! thank you

What makes me far more stressed is the "nothing to see here" head in sand attitude.

I couldn't agree more @tryingtoprep! I feel like the whole prepping mentality is about constructively removing the stress from the situation, but have a family member who is really getting under my skin with his attitude of denial. He insists it's all nonsense, that I'm 'panicking' (I'm not, I very rarely panic about anything), that it's just like catching a cold and everything/everyone will be fine. It just completely flies in the face of the facts. I don't mind people having their own views (ofc!) but the way he's completely getting in my face about it, despite having zero medical knowledge and not much insight into social infrastructure (he is quite young) is really exercising me!

Easy to miss things when worried. I put op in as mojo is the one with the info.