Prepping for a pandemic...6

[wheresmymojo]

6th thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

Anxiety

As Preppers we tend to look at a reasonable worst case scenario to plan for. Everyone is welcome on the thread but if you find it makes you anxious be kind to yourself and think about sticking to once daily updates from the BBC or similar

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Prepping Scenarios

Most of us are prepping for the following situations:

• Wanting to stay indoors for 2-4 weeks + in case of a local outbreak / schools being closed

• Potentially being ill with a flu type illness lasting 2-3 weeks with one or more of the household having the illness

• Having to take a family member to hospital for COVID or any other reason during an outbreak

Prepping Items

Threads 1&2 have lists of things to think about to prep for the first scenario as do the Brexit prepping threads.

Main differences/additions to something like the Brexit list are:

• Face masks if you can get them for any trips you have to make in public during an outbreak. These don't offer full protection and cannot be 100% relied upon but are probably better than nothing if you make sure you wear them correctly and dispose of them correctly. N95 masks are best but expensive and harder to wear, surgical face masks are second best. Dust masks are not going to help.

• Hand sanitiser needs to be 60% or more alcohol content

• Dettol / bleach / Miltons to disinfect. Not all disinfectants work but these three do

• Plenty of at home/over counter treatments for flu type symptoms should you need to treat at home

• Tissues (lots of) should you catch the virus

• Think about meals that are easy to cook and eat should you be ill or both parents be ill at the same time (soup for example)

• For a potential hospital trip you may want to prep a 'go bag' should you need to take someone to hospital with the virus (or anything else) during an outbreak. See Thread 1&2 for examples of what people are packing

• Frequent and thorough hand washing, not touching your face and social distancing (no handshakes, hugs, etc) are some of the most effective ways to stay virus free

Other Thoughts

India have announced that they are stopping exports of some antibiotics, hormone treatments and vitamin supplements as they rely on China for raw materials.

Many factories that supplied fibre for use in sanitary towels and tampons are being diverted to manufacture face masks. Consider stocking up or changing to sustainable items (cloth STs, mooncup, period pants)

I watched for ages so there was a lot!

It was the lead (Dr Elwood) of an independent international team of experts sent to China to report on the approach there.

The main bits I took from it were:

China's approach has been a real success story that other countries should look to emulate. Huge amount of praise for the skill and efficiency all round.

There doesn't appear to be a big iceberg of undetected cases. There was a lot on this but the gist was that they felt there was an accurate handle on the figures (and from what he explained about the data it did seem that way). One journalist pointed out in the Q&A that this dashes hopes of a much lower mortality rate and Dr Elwood didn't disagree.

Concern addressed over and over that other countries weren't prepared enough and weren't in the right mindset. It was stressed really heavily that the extreme measures taken by China (building hospitals in days etc) was saving lives and reiterated that there is no reason why other countries couldn't do this.

A lot of stuff about learning from experts in China. One of the reasons cited for higher mortality rates in the early days was that China have learned how to handle cases much better now- we need to learn from them and we need to listen.

Mention that severe cases are more successfully treated if medical help is sought sooner rather than later (this came up re high death rates in new outbreaks such as Italy).

Loads of other stuff too, it was excellent. Highly recommend that you have a watch, although it was very long! Only just finished when I posted below!

I've just had a Waterbob delivered. I'm officially a prepper (it's just for days when the water supply goes off, honest!)

@Oliphantitus Thank you. I agree it's scary, but it makes me glad the numbers infected are probably under-reported, because that does mean the true death rate will be lower also (if mild cases just quitely resolve and never get reported).

But I'm someone who likes to have the knowledge - for good or for bad, and I get really frustrated when I feel like official reports are being misleading.

Helen Branswell seems to think Bruce Aylward was talking out of his bottom.

Oh oops, cross-post, perhaps scratch the bit about under-reported then!

Oh and the overriding message from the press conference was that counties shouldn't just throw their hands up and accept there is nothing they can do- China has shown that a huge difference can be made with measures to both cut off the chain of infection AND measures to ensure that as many people as possible are treated.

One more thing- he talked about the way in which all the Chinese provinces sent their resources to Wuhan. Thousands of doctors, PPE etc, to ensure help went to where it was needed most- which was in everyone's interest. Something other countries should learn from- there's no place for hoarding supplies in less affected places etc.

We use one tin of beans for three of us, but two for four.

Maybe in lockdown you can reduce to two tins between five.

Weird but, rice,peas,sweetcorn and mushroom soup.

But we as a country are nothing like China. People don't do as they are told or follow rules, everyone thinks they're special and an exception, we have a different political system which means the politicians always have one eye on the next election and pleasing people, etc etc

@AvocadoOwl
Hoarding supplies also applies to individuals. Buying 100s of masks so that those who need them cannot get them is also extremely selfish and short sighted behaviour.
I have lived in China for 12 years and the action the govt has taken to halt the spread is incredible.

So true Hasa. Short term ism. And Boris is not known for planning.

Dr Aylward not Elwood by the way, I misheard!

Well, Italy have already quarantined towns successfully so that's clearly doable.

I am not knowledgeable enough to decide whether somewhere like the UK could quickly build hospitals or convert stadiums but it obviously CAN be done, because China have done it. I don't think we should be so quick to say 'can't'.

Buying hundreds of masks is unlikely to have happened though given that they're about £4 a pop. Unless they're just surgical masks which come in packs of 50 or 100 and can't really be bought individually.

I suspect the poster who said they had 150, bought a bulk pack of surgical masks for the family. Given that they only last an hour or so that isn't really unreasonable.

I started to dip into the last thread, I'm not an experienced pepper and won't be a full blown one.
However I think some fore thought to the what ifs with small dependable dc is prudent.
I added pasta to my last shop and plenty of loo rolls (on offer ocado)

People mentioning multi vits on the other thread, I'd also add in those vit c and zinc soluble tablets.

I've started to re build my paracetamol and ibroorufen and got day nurse on back of other thread. Pricey...

I've seen close hand where I work that we don't stand a chance if one person gets in and a number of colleagues have been to Disney over half terms and are not back yet,

On the unreported front i believe that there still are some not the iceberg mentioned. Maybe enough to drop the death rate by a percentage point or two. Certainly this applies to Iran, Italy and anywhere in the infancy of a breakout of cases. Personally I still believe it also applies to China in early days though accept not an iceberg

BREAKING: #Kuwait Ministry of Health: increase the number of confirmed cases of #coronavirus to 9

People don’t necessarily follow the rules in China, but are fully aware that consequences of not adhering to the regulations surrounding the virus are going to be severe.
I think some people have the view that China is a country of automatons and this is not the case.

Coronavirus updates:

• 4 more Americans test positive after being evacuated from the Diamond Princess cruise ship
• 1 new case in Kuwait
• 1 new case in Singapore

t.co/eUoE2b20hL

Re masks
I was in Western Australia at the end of January (no cases in the who,e state) and this was exactly what was happening. I needed a mask for my transit through HK and could not get one anywhere - not even a surgical mask. So those that buy 150 masks do put others at risk with their selfish behaviour.

If I heard/understood correctly provinces in China have just been granted licences to start looking for antibodies in samples taken (from flu tests and other such things that are being taken as usual)- these should provide a more accurate picture of what proportion of populations have been affected and will give a better idea of how large the number of undetected asymptomatic cases might be. Current evidence points to there being only a small number.

NEW: France reports 2 new cases of coronavirus t.co/eUoE2b20hL

dr Elwood also said that people need to stop?/ be very careful? Of assuming that the death rate will be lower in other countries because of (can’t remember his wording,but basically) China having the reputation for not being as ‘clean’ as other countries and ‘basic’ facilities - he says they’re constantly learning from how this is progressing and are now on their 6th in 6 weeks version of ‘how to treat this) plus they bought in massive amounts of equipment and already had much more than anywhere in the world. Some piece of equipment they had 60, I think in that particular centre and we have something like 4 in Europe) and they are being used.

He says if he got it, he’d rather be treat there than anywhere else.

I found that quite scary

He was definitely saying that the rest of the world needs to LISTEN & take action!!

Well worth a listen. But possibly not if your anxiety levels are already high

The france cases are Paris apparently

URGENT: Another death in #italy. Now at 11. #Treviso - #veneto #italy #coronavirus

Today has been relentless

Agreed @ShanghaiDiva.

I see there is a lot of criticism and scepticism on Twitter already, 'China only let them see what they wanted them to see' and 'the WHO only care about appeasing the Chinese'. Personally I found the press conference refreshingly illuminating and I don't think for a second that this independent team are stupid enough to be led a merry dance around cherry picked sites. Nor are they going to take what they hear or see at face value.

They are happy that the figures from China are accurate and have plenty of evidence to support why they are confident it is accurate. I thought it was all incredibly eye opening and yes, China have achieved incredible things.

@BlackeyedSusan

We use one tin of beans for three of us, but two for four

What with?