Prepping for a pandemic...6

[wheresmymojo]

6th thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

Anxiety

As Preppers we tend to look at a reasonable worst case scenario to plan for. Everyone is welcome on the thread but if you find it makes you anxious be kind to yourself and think about sticking to once daily updates from the BBC or similar

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Prepping Scenarios

Most of us are prepping for the following situations:

• Wanting to stay indoors for 2-4 weeks + in case of a local outbreak / schools being closed

• Potentially being ill with a flu type illness lasting 2-3 weeks with one or more of the household having the illness

• Having to take a family member to hospital for COVID or any other reason during an outbreak

Prepping Items

Threads 1&2 have lists of things to think about to prep for the first scenario as do the Brexit prepping threads.

Main differences/additions to something like the Brexit list are:

• Face masks if you can get them for any trips you have to make in public during an outbreak. These don't offer full protection and cannot be 100% relied upon but are probably better than nothing if you make sure you wear them correctly and dispose of them correctly. N95 masks are best but expensive and harder to wear, surgical face masks are second best. Dust masks are not going to help.

• Hand sanitiser needs to be 60% or more alcohol content

• Dettol / bleach / Miltons to disinfect. Not all disinfectants work but these three do

• Plenty of at home/over counter treatments for flu type symptoms should you need to treat at home

• Tissues (lots of) should you catch the virus

• Think about meals that are easy to cook and eat should you be ill or both parents be ill at the same time (soup for example)

• For a potential hospital trip you may want to prep a 'go bag' should you need to take someone to hospital with the virus (or anything else) during an outbreak. See Thread 1&2 for examples of what people are packing

• Frequent and thorough hand washing, not touching your face and social distancing (no handshakes, hugs, etc) are some of the most effective ways to stay virus free

Other Thoughts

India have announced that they are stopping exports of some antibiotics, hormone treatments and vitamin supplements as they rely on China for raw materials.

Many factories that supplied fibre for use in sanitary towels and tampons are being diverted to manufacture face masks. Consider stocking up or changing to sustainable items (cloth STs, mooncup, period pants)

We have a small freezer too but I've found by putting raw meat into freezer bags instead of keeping them in their plastic boxes I can fit a huge amount more than I ever i imagined, close to month in chicken breasts, beef and sausages.

I have made a spreadsheet to record expiry dates for anything that expires over the next few months to the end of the year - long-life tortillas, chapatis, cheeses etc.

@zorona add tinned Ratatouille to rice and/or tinned beans.
Tofu fried rice sorry don't have recipe to hand but there will be lots online, especially good if you have some Tumeric or curry powder to add.

You can make a chickpea curry, can of chickpeas, can of tomatoes, veg stock, onions from freezer, all the spices and serve on rice.

What is that medicine the deputy of Iranian health minister takes? “Many might get infected, but we have enough effective medicine, take care of yourselves. Take care of the nurses and doctors who work heroically.”

@chineseny all depends on what you are worried about? If its that the world will end or millions in the country will die then 0/10 if its the chance that some public services in certain towns may shut to help stop the spread then Maybe a 5/10 I work at a busy UK airport and barely anyone is batting an eyelid to be fair I work with currency too so who knows what have I been touching. Do I do anything differently than I did befor? Maybe use anti bac a bit more especially with Asian currency but other than that not really.

We need to remember it is flu season and we can't just assume absolutely everyone has this virus otherwise half the country would be self isolating.

Thanks. I will get more chickpeas and kidney beans etc

Hi, I was a poster on previous threads have namechanged. A GP surgery near me has closed due to a potential case walking in. I'm presuming this has happened often all over the country by now?

There is no organisation to my prepping whatsoever. My 6 month old is teething and a bit of a handful at the moment, I'm lucky if I can complete the washing up in one go at the moment let alone sit down and go through it all.

I do have a 25kg bag of brown rice stored at my dads as well as 15kg red lentils. (Problem is I now don't want to go over to his as he is in his 70s and a heavy smoker and my kids are in the germ hub that is primary school - I would never forgive myself if we unknowingly passed it on to him)

I have quite a lot of nappies and wipes...a couple of bags of cat and dog kibble - not their usual but if they're hungry they will eat it! Lots of paracetamol
/ibuprofen for adults and children , a few bottles of cheap bleach which I can dilute with water to use as a general disinfectant.

Lots of butter, eggs and flour and sugar to make cakes.

Lots of loo rolls.

A couple of big bags of pasta, several tins of pulses, 4 jars of curry paste. My freezer is tiny but we do have a big bag of frozen peas and sweet corn

Must get more cheese, more pasta....the problem is we are already eating our way through the pasta and using the loo rolls.....

I am telling my friends and family to prep for panic buying, but apart from my dad they all roll their eyes at me and laugh. My mother has banned me from talking about it! You would have thought with the panic buying in Italy they'd have a bit more sense....none so blind as those with normalcy bias

Realised I have loads of baked beans but actually not sure how much use they are as a meal

zorona

veggie chilli would work well, so if you haven't got them, tinned tomatoes or passata, chilli powder/flakes, kidney beans or others than might work for you and I'll be adding tinned sweetcorn. If you have space in your fridge, might be worth freezing some onions.

veggie curry, chickpeas are perfect for protein, then whatever tinned or frozen veg you have.

Pitta bread is nice with first, but can be frozen and ideal for lunches if you need them.

You can buy naan bread with a long sell by date for the curry.

Thanks. I will definitely get more pulses tins. My kids like curry with coconut milk but not sure what tins would add to that. It need fresh veg really I think. I have tons of cupboard space. Ok fridge. But short on freezer space. Think maybe I need to get the big tubs of ice cream out and create space for meat and fresh veg

I thought I had done a massive prep. But counting up the meals it is probably only about 2 weeks if lucky. Guess that’s better than most people

I eat baked beans as a meal - half can ply a piece of toast. To feed 5 of us I’d use 3 cans and 7 pieces of bread.
Incidentally the powdered egg I bought is now a best seller on amazon. In the time it took me to do the school run they sold over 10!

Jack Monroe has a book called Tin Can Cook, which sounds like it might be useful for people stocking up on tins!

Strongly recommend the corned beef chilli from that book.

I don't think its been mentioned already but soya mince is a fantastic prep item. It's dried and so it stores really well (its also really light). It's a great source of protein, a small amount makes a lot of food and it doesn't take much cooking. DS1 went veggie at Christmas and we've all been eating it in place of minced beef and lamb. None of us can tell the difference in a bolognese/shepherds pie/moussaka/chilli type dish.

Holland and Barrett currently have it on buy one get one half price and so its also much cheaper than meat.

Thank you these are really useful tips

Made a picture to illustrate the problem with the way death rates are being reported.

I've seen multiple people addressing this already, but thought maybe a graphical form would be easier for getting the point across (for my own DH if no one else!)

Basically we're being told the death rate is around 2% because they're counting the number of people who've died out of everyone who's been confirmed infected - including those people that are still infected right now.

However, what you really want to know is how many people recover vs how many die - and this paints a different picture (9% deaths as of today's numbers).

Someone gives you a packet of 100 seeds. After a day, 10 have sprouted, and 1 of these is a poisonous mushroom.

Can you really say that only 1 in a packet will be a poisonous mushroom? No, because 90 of the seeds haven't sprouted yet!

Yes, mushrooms grow from spores rather than seeds

Anyway, sorry, this is my own venting, borne of frustrations with trying to explain it to people around me, and I've seen a similar frustration playing out on the boards, so thought I might share my 'tool'.

Thank you for posting the link to the live WHO press conference @RedLentilYellowLentil. I have been glued- very interesting stuff and some serious insights.

@AvocadoOwl

I havent been able to watch it due to scholl run and after school bits. Would you mind sharing anything of interest?

www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/52AF79B8-57CE-11EA-AD24-647BE9E52225?__twitter_impression=true
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the Center for the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said Tuesday that Americans should talk to their children’s schools about contingency education and childcare plans and tele-working options at work if community spread is reported in the U.S. When asked by a reporter on a conference call if her tone had changed compared to previous calls, Messonnier said: “The data over the last week and the spread in other countries has certainly raised our level of concern and our level of expectation that we are going to have community spread here ... That’s why we are asking folks in every sector and in their families to plan for this.”

Looks like the Americans are getting concerned.

BREAKING: Italy reports 3 new deaths from coronavirus, raising death toll to 10; all 3 were in their 80s t.co/eUoE2b20hL

@Zorona
I do a store cupboard curry. Chickpeas, simmered in a jar of curry sauce with a handful of sultanas. When the chickpeas are soft and the sauce has reduced I add in coconut milk. All tinned stuff apart from sultanas.

UPDATE: Italy reports 39 new cases of coronavirus, or 91 new cases so far today, raising total to 322 t.co/eUoE2b20hL

@patriciabateman thank you, this is very clear! Although a bit scary too.