Prepping for a pandemic....5

[wheresmymojo]

5th thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

Anxiety

As Preppers we tend to look at a reasonable worst case scenario to plan for. Everyone is welcome on the thread but if you find it makes you anxious be kind to yourself and think about sticking to once daily updates from the BBC or similar

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Prepping Scenarios

Most of us are prepping for the following situations:

• Wanting to stay indoors for 2-4 weeks + in case of a local outbreak / schools being closed

• Potentially being ill with a flu type illness lasting 2-3 weeks with one or more of the household having the illness

• Having to take a family member to hospital for COVID or any other reason during an outbreak

Prepping Items

Threads 1&2 have lists of things to think about to prep for the first scenario as do the Brexit prepping threads.

Main differences/additions to something like the Brexit list are:

• Face masks if you can get them for any trips you have to make in public during an outbreak. These don't offer full protection and cannot be 100% relied upon but are probably better than nothing if you make sure you wear them correctly and dispose of them correctly. N95 masks are best but expensive and harder to wear, surgical face masks are second best. Dust masks are not going to help.

• Hand sanitiser needs to be 60% or more alcohol content

• Dettol / bleach / Miltons to disinfect. Not all disinfectants work but these three do

• Plenty of at home/over counter treatments for flu type symptoms should you need to treat at home

• Tissues (lots of) should you catch the virus

• Think about meals that are easy to cook and eat should you be ill or both parents be ill at the same time (soup for example)

• For a potential hospital trip you may want to prep a 'go bag' should you need to take someone to hospital with the virus (or anything else) during an outbreak. See Thread 1&2 for examples of what people are packing

• Frequent and thorough hand washing, not touching your face and social distancing (no handshakes, hugs, etc) are some of the most effective ways to stay virus free

Other Thoughts

India have announced that they are stopping exports of some antibiotics, hormone treatments and vitamin supplements as they rely on China for raw materials.

Many factories that supplied fibre for use in sanitary towels and tampons are being diverted to manufacture face masks. Consider stocking up or changing to sustainable items (cloth STs, mooncup, period pants)

@crazy 150 masks is a lot. For how many people? I have 5 for me - am trying to get another 4 from screwfix but am sure they are prioritising tradespeople who need them for work so am not certain I will get them.

I figure if it gets to the point I need to wear a mask every day on public transport that's when I will stay at home (fortunately I can work remotely) so 5 will be enough for the few times I need to leave. Am concentrating on the food and other household stocks so I don't need to leave. I reckon I could stay inside totally for two weeks plus.

Snowdropsdelight I think October is too far away at the moment to be able to determine what’s the best thing to do. I have a holiday booked, and all paid, for April and I am still waiting to see how things develop over the next few weeks. However, I am not going to book anything else for the rest of the year. I face losing £6.5k for the April holiday if we have to cancel and I don’t want to risk losing any more money. I would stick with your flight for October and then book accommodation nearer the time.

Thanks bunsy. I have to book the return flight in April (easy jet sale) so I guess then we will know more re peaks, vaccines etc.

@AvocadoOwl I don't think you can have understood what I tried to explain - Dr John Campbell specifically spelt out the bed issue and the issue with different serotypes and ADE and potential for something lasting decades. This is not interpretation - these were his words, not mine. My I suggest that you back and confirm this before accusing me of erroneously quoting sources.

The piece that does come from me is that this virus has the potential to radically alter the world as we know it. Some of us (not referring to Mumsnetters) but those in the UK will die from the COVID-19 virus.

I think Dr John Campbell has been balanced and shared his interpretaions and theories well to date. It is clear that his views have shifted somewhat in this live video. (For example, ref the comment about the NHS being "well prepared" would be laughable if it weren't so serious). This part is opinion.

I asked a MH nurse if I was in a MH crisis at the very end of this week and I saw a psychiatrist the previous week - the response from both was that I was coping "very well". (The irrelevant background is there was a huge incident (not me) that I have to adjust to at the tail end of 19. )I keep telling professionals about this health anxiety and I keep getting told it's not that bad. I have a very senior role at work where I can make decisions calmly and rationally and I have other roles, nothing has slipped so I expect it has all popped out as health anxiety at home.

I expect I would probably like you IRL. But I do find the tone of your last post to me (unintentionally) belittling and aggressive - verging on gaslighting. I have no problem with you saying XYZ is hysterical conjecture and not helpful.

However, it appears that the statements I based the conjecture on are being denied as false. Then mental health is brought into it - I'm afraid this shows an ignorance of mental health, to perpetuate the myth that anyone with mental health doesn't know what they are talking about, that they can't possibly understand anything. A recent high profile case illustrated (IMHO of course) that those with MH issues are afraid people will not listen to them and will write them off. Exactly how I feel here.

Rather than being gaslighted, I'd rather someone said, You know what Turnbridge - I think when this articles says X, it means Y - you've got the wrong end of the stick, or Mr B said that - you got the nuance wrong.

Somone made a point that they need to have all the latest updates as soon as they happen so they can be prepared. I do agree it's helpful to have the news and there is a UK lag going on but does a few hours make a real difference? Maybe it does for some.

Anyway I'd like to discontinue this piece of the discussion as I agree and acknowledge this is distracting from real news and real prepping.

On the real prepping front - has anyone started to stock up on items that may come in short supply due to decreased manufacturing - for example in China at the moment , or related to the news that India will stop exporting certain drugs and vitamins?

I was thinking of vitamins specifically - I don't know where these are manufactured in general and if there are several countries round the world who do so, or whether it is a raw component supply problem.

Secondly frequently replaced items - perhaps white t-shirts for DH, charging wires (ours seem to disappear) kids socks, batteries.

I know it's impossible to know exactly what goods would be affected by any such shortage and how long any supply issues might persist.

I think that's a good point re: considering whether there is anything you purchase frequently that might be impacted by global supply chain disruptions.

I was thinking of purchasing:

• Batteries
• Lightbulbs
• Leggings (I have 4 cats who constantly make holes in them!)
• Couple of extra bras (I only tend to have 2-3 in circulation and if the underwires go and there are supply issues my ridiculously enormous size might be harder to come by)
• Pregnacare. We're thinking of TTC soon so will check how long these last and buy a good few months in

Hadn't thought of it but maybe a couple of extra Apple chargers as we always lose them.

I won't buy tonnes of these items - just a few to put by.

I've already said about sanitary towels / tampons being a definite supply issue looming.

I'm not commenting on the "gaslighting" accusation tunbridge other than to say that everyone on here has shown nothing but concern about your situation. It is not helpful to anyone (or to you) however for you to be talking about "the end" and it's right that people point that out and not be shut down by an accusation of "gaslighting".

On the "real" prepping front I'm well stocked for things to just keep running more or less as normal since I did household goods etc in readiness for a potential Brexit crash out. I've ordered repeat prescriptions since there is a chance meds could be affected. My aim in all of this would be to try to keep things as normal as possible for the DC.

My approach to brexit prepping was 'buy all the stuff' - i.e forward purchasing of things we get through in anticipation of supply chain issues, and in that respect this is no different really. Just possibly different in that it won't just be us as a country suffering shortages.

@YoursTunbridgeWells Does the fact that there isn't one person here who thinks your reaction is proportionate give you any pause for thought at all? It's very unfair to accuse people of gaslighting you and not understanding MH issues when their concern for you is genuine, based on what you yourself have been saying, and shared by lots of other people.

For example, talking about sitting your DC down and wanting them to choose a guardian is (IMO) completely disproportionate and could cause them a lot of worry and anxiety. I'm coming at this from the POV of someone whose DC have more "weight of responsibility" (for want of a better word) for my own health than they should, as I have uncontrolled epilepsy and they are exposed to seizures and the distress, first aid and medical responses that go along with it, plus the fear of it happening. It's unavoidable and we minimise risk as much as possible but I would do anything for my DC not to have this worry so to me it seems very unfair for someone to be worrying their DC when it simply isn't necessary. I do also feel genuine concern for you feeling this way, lots of us absolutely do understand and have experience of MH issues. (I am aware I am probably projecting my issues on this particular point because of my own fears for my own DC!)

I don't want to derail the thread any further as it has genuinely been helpful and friendly and pretty proportionate up til now, but i can see this issue spiralling. I don't want to be rude as I do genuinely think this is for the best but I personally feel I would be causing more harm than good engaging with further discussions with you - then this thread would not be helpful for anyone's health. I just wanted to flag up that so many people have responded the way they have out of concern and not ignorance or discrimination.

I hope you can believe that I genuinely wish you well and hope you feel happier and less anxious (in fact I wish that for all of us!)

Hasa I agree with your comment re the end. Fair point. The gaslighting comment on my part relates to something else where I rightly or wrongly felt I was being told I had imagined words said on a video. Please feel free to call me using specific examples it is actually helpful.

I also want to thank those people who have tried to show support. It seems like I have fairly much exhausted all nhs and private options because I can function superficially well despite everything. I genuinely apologise for my remarks unnerving people. I always have seasonal flu health anxiety. This is honestly my nemesis and it’s come at a time when I am on negative reserves.

You are all a great bunch. I expect I would be able to communicate much better if I spoke to you rather than typed some message into a box on my phone.

Back to the prepping. Very pleased my battery charger arrived with aa and aaa rechargeable batteries. Will order in a load of C & D batteries too now for things like the smoke alarms. Have also ordered a few more torches. We'll use them for camping anyway. Probably good for us to move to rechargeable batteries anyway.

I only really prepare with the essentials needed to be honest. I figure that if the shtf then I won't be too bothered about all the other stuff. That and I really don't have the space or the money for tonnes of extras, so mine is food, water provisions, medicine, ways to cook and get light if we have a disruption to utilities, first aid. It's basically your usual preppers gear with some cleaning things and masks added in.

I've got basic food supplies for about 3-4 weeks, longer if we have bland meals. I've got veg in the garden, eggs from the chickens. I've got "treats" in the form of chocolate/jelly packets/angel delight and uht milk and bread mix. Loads of frozen veg too.
Loads of medicine- I've been buying extra each weekly shop since last autumn. I've got disposable gloves and a few masks. About 10 mini handgels and stock of antibacterial hand soap too.
I think we should be ok. I'm just bricking it for three reasons-
1- ex smoker, me and DH but he's quit for longer than me.
2- work in public sector
3- have got to go to London next week on public transport. I could drive but it will be £40 parking and it's central London.

Still debating whether to wear a mask to travel with.

However, it appears that the statements I based the conjecture on are being denied as false. Then mental health is brought into it - I'm afraid this shows an ignorance of mental health, to perpetuate the myth that anyone with mental health doesn't know what they are talking about, that they can't possibly understand anything. A recent high profile case illustrated (IMHO of course) that those with MH issues are afraid people will not listen to them and will write them off. Exactly how I feel here.

Rather than being gaslighted, I'd rather someone said, You know what Turnbridge - I think when this articles says X, it means Y - you've got the wrong end of the stick, or Mr B said that - you got the nuance wrong.

Nobody is gaslighting you. You are fixated on the absolute worse case scenario you can imagine. You seek confirmation bias, taking what you find out of context and exaggerating it. You have said you are definitely going to die from the virus, that you are suicidal every day, that you are thinking that you and your husband will both die at home with your children in the house because you won't be treated, and are going to prepare them for what to do. This is an extreme and irrational state of mind.

Many posters have given you alternative and more realistic interpretations of the facts and figures which you ignore. Now you are accusing people of being unwilling to accept the catastrophe which is about to befall us and also of belittling and stigmatising mental health problems which couldn't be further from the truth. I for one am intimately familiar with the loss of perspective which accompanies a mental health crisis as are others here who have said as much. People are just concerned based on your own postings.

Link to the latest guidance for schools ( updated 19/2). Is anyone going to ask if their childs school is doing this? And if so, how without looking like a nutter?!

www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-to-educational-settings-about-covid-19/guidance-to-educational-settings-about-covid-19

But I do find the tone of your last post to me (unintentionally) belittling and aggressive - verging on gaslighting.

OK, this was aimed at me so I shall respond by saying that I respectfully disagree and leave it at that.

Bold fail yet again by me.

@NaturalBornWoman that was helpful thank you. And @AvocadoOwl noted thank you. I’m confused as to why professionals IRL are telling me I’m doing ok when I read some of the opinions here. I can now see I’m letting all my worst stuff loose here completed unchecked. I will speak to someone about it this week and perhaps show them the summary you posted. I will have to start a Mh thread somewhere appropriate and will leave it off here.

Back to prepping - hair bobbles for DD - she gets through 50 as They loose their stretch.

I’m ordering some cross stitch in case of lockdown. And a couple of Xbox games which I’m going to hide.

Latest guidance for schools, I wonder whether this will be updated for Italy, which may have more cases than some of those listed countries?

I'm going into school with that document tomorrow notyourtypicalnerd my son is immune suppressed though

I'm in the process of topping up our Brexit stash, but trying to think more along the lines of what we would fancy eating when recovering from illness.

My problem with buying nice things for the stash - from experience - is that I eat them. And then have to buy them all over again. I got through so much aldi chocolate in the run up to our no deal brexit dates.

Same here @wherearemychickens the struggle is real! However I just like to think of it as waistline prepping so that I've got a few lbs to spare!

The school procedures seem straightforward to implement. I am visiting a school tomorrow as we are relocating from China this summer and they asked how long ago I left the mainland.
I think hygiene in public places is key. HK airport when I was there last week had staff constantly disinfecting the toilet areas and where dh is staying the lift buttons are disinfected every 30 mins.

Its worth bearing in mind, YoursTunbridgeWells, that endemic illnesses like dengue with multiple sarotypes would probably have received a lot more research, funding and possibly even been eradicated already if they affected North Americans as much as Africans.

I might watch 28 Days later this evening after talking to DH about the worries that 14 days quarantine may not be enough.

I watched the Dr John Campbell video, who is a nurse educator so no not WHO or an expert on pandemics, but he is accessible and for me has an excellent ability to contextualize the stats with experience of patient care.

What I drew from it and previous information was that one worst case end point is a new circulating corona virus to add to the preexisting ones causing colds in humans. This would mean more hospitalised viral pneumonia cases annually.

(Even if f I were a not-so-super-forecaster I'd say IF that happens health systems will obviously need more isolation facilities, specialised beds and personnel for the very ill so get ready for higher health care costs and diversion of funds from other health areas.)

The getting to that point where there is some immunity and cases reach a level point would cause large disruption to the health services. (However most people still won't get badly ill , so frankly it won't be the end of civilisation although horrible. People in poorer and politically unstable countries would suffer more.)

On a slightly lighter note I also predict that the main BBC News bulletin will remain very sketchy as to what might be happening, somewhere, 24 hours ago. Radio 4 listeners may be deemed strong enough to cope with a bit more information!

Thinking about YoursTunbridgeWells posts :
There have been references to reinfection which I have heard nothing credible to support. Although the other human corona viruses do not give lifelong immunity they do give some immunity, better than for flu I have read.

(Another more positive thought on the long term is that viruses in history have often become milder as it is easier to be passed on if the patient is not made too ill. Hence milder strains predominate over time.)

Anyway prepper waves to you all!