Prepping for a pandemic....5

[wheresmymojo]

5th thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

Anxiety

As Preppers we tend to look at a reasonable worst case scenario to plan for. Everyone is welcome on the thread but if you find it makes you anxious be kind to yourself and think about sticking to once daily updates from the BBC or similar

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Prepping Scenarios

Most of us are prepping for the following situations:

• Wanting to stay indoors for 2-4 weeks + in case of a local outbreak / schools being closed

• Potentially being ill with a flu type illness lasting 2-3 weeks with one or more of the household having the illness

• Having to take a family member to hospital for COVID or any other reason during an outbreak

Prepping Items

Threads 1&2 have lists of things to think about to prep for the first scenario as do the Brexit prepping threads.

Main differences/additions to something like the Brexit list are:

• Face masks if you can get them for any trips you have to make in public during an outbreak. These don't offer full protection and cannot be 100% relied upon but are probably better than nothing if you make sure you wear them correctly and dispose of them correctly. N95 masks are best but expensive and harder to wear, surgical face masks are second best. Dust masks are not going to help.

• Hand sanitiser needs to be 60% or more alcohol content

• Dettol / bleach / Miltons to disinfect. Not all disinfectants work but these three do

• Plenty of at home/over counter treatments for flu type symptoms should you need to treat at home

• Tissues (lots of) should you catch the virus

• Think about meals that are easy to cook and eat should you be ill or both parents be ill at the same time (soup for example)

• For a potential hospital trip you may want to prep a 'go bag' should you need to take someone to hospital with the virus (or anything else) during an outbreak. See Thread 1&2 for examples of what people are packing

• Frequent and thorough hand washing, not touching your face and social distancing (no handshakes, hugs, etc) are some of the most effective ways to stay virus free

Other Thoughts

India have announced that they are stopping exports of some antibiotics, hormone treatments and vitamin supplements as they rely on China for raw materials.

Many factories that supplied fibre for use in sanitary towels and tampons are being diverted to manufacture face masks. Consider stocking up or changing to sustainable items (cloth STs, mooncup, period pants)

Drive-thru' coronavirus testing to start on Monday
Suspected cases asked to drive to NHS health centres where nurses in Hazmat gear will swab them through the window

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/22/drive-thru-coronavirus-testing-start-monday/

Been holding off buying proper face mask but can anyone recommend a face mask off screwfix , not the disposable ones but the filter ones

I was at a wedding yesterday and for some
Reason was starting to feel less anxious about the whole thing but today I’m really really worried :-/

It seems like it’s not petering out at all. I have as much stuff in as I can store - I can do a few top ups - but I am still worried it won’t be enough. Might need a trip to Aldi tomorrow for some “easy” things like extra pasta and some jars of pesto which I use anyway, as I hadn’t really considered if I am feeling crap I won’t want to faff around cooking!

It must be a pandemic now surely? Maybe because I am tired and it’s 5am but things feel very bleak and a bit end of times like! Hopefully things will feel brighter in the morning but the Italy and Iran situations are very worrying indeed - surely it’s only a matter of time til we start seeing clusters of people suffering from/dying from pneumonia over here - especially since Italy locked down flights early on.

I recommend the pancake mix from amazon - along with a giant tub of Nutella that should keep me going for a while (might not be the most nutritionally sound meal but hey ho)

Also, which are the masks that lasts for a month? I have a lot of DIY to do in the next few weeks so was thinking of investing, as with extra filters they will definitely get used anyway

www.screwfix.com/p/gvs-elipse-half-mask-respirator-p3/6922g

These are the reuseable masks. They have exactly the same ones in Wickes but a bit more expensive at £23 and they're also on Amazon. Its a British manufacturer and so as thing currently stand obtaining replacement filters should be ok.

A good article on the psychology side...I particularly like point 7!

www.psandman.com/col/teachable.htm

Point 7
"This is the most paradoxical payoff. Because they have rehearsed, because they are better prepared and feel better prepared, people who have gone through a successful adjustment reaction are less likely to over-react to an actual crisis that follows. In this sense an adjustment reaction functions a little like an inoculation. Just as important, people who have gone through a successful adjustment reaction tend to notice more quickly, and recover more quickly, when the crisis is over – or when a threatened crisis has failed to materialize."

@Ifonly4

Check you haven't got travel insurance via a bank account.

So bus from the hospital to the train station? You'll barely save any time over walking the whole way. Taxis are relatively cheap but I've never caught one so have no idea how to. I can ask local friends if you need any advice.

I'd come and drive you but although I don't think I have CV on account of my streaming runny nose and sneezing, I definitely have something as I've been running a fever for hours. 😷

Trains here are amazing. Check out the first class prices, often not much more.

@YoursTunbridgeWells strange I've also been keeping up with Dr John and I've not heard him express those fears at all. You are persistent in catastrophising this as an end of days scenario, totally inappropriately quite frankly and appear to be mentally quite unwell. You've had a lot of support on these threads and suggestions regarding managing your mental health which you have rejected. That's up to you, but please don't spread untrue and catastrophic thinking here as factual where many are already somewhat anxious, it's not at all helpful.

@ofwarren - I’d be surprised if a school would tell you if a child is being tested due to protect the child’s confidentiality and to stop unnecessary panic. Being tested doesn’t mean they are positive for the virus.

Agreed @NaturalBornWoman.

@Parker231 I already get told about potential chicken pox cases, before they are even confirmed. Why is it confidentiality if I'm not told which child or even which class?

Hello all. Joining your from the AIBU board and starting to think about buying some bits in case of lockdown. We are in London. Already have masks but that’s about it. Can anyone recommend the best hand gel to buy? I see over 60% is best but the ones I currently have are less than that. Also does anyone know if the dettol spray would be any good for using as we come in and out of the house? I’m worried that we both commute for work

Sorry Ofwarren I forgot you had an immunosuppressed child. However generally I think a child has the right to privacy regarding medical issues.

@Axlcat the blue carex one and the Lidl one at the till are the right strength. They don't seem to be sold out like Milton and other brands.

@wheresmymojo
The lockdown information on Italy seems similar to what is happening in China.
There are restrictions in China on the internet eg Facebook, google, bbc is blocked, but I have had plenty of communication from people there re the situation. Additionally, a VPN can be used to access all of the blocked sites.
Tuesday will be interesting next week as office workers return to work tomorrow and other services are starting to reopen eg my hairdresser, local restaurants offering takeaway so with this increased movement it will be interesting to see what happens to the number of cases and a test to see if what the Chinese have done is working. Btw this is my province, obviously strict controls remain in Hubei and some other areas.

Veneto - thank you. I don't know what I'm doing from hour to hour anyway, so it's probably better if I arrange whatever whenever.

How's your DS today? Hope you feel better soon. I've got a bit of a sore throat here, but suspect that's the stress of the last few days shot eating properly.

I think the drive thru coronavirus testing that they are talking about sounds like a great solution to freeing up the ambulances and save them having to be scrubbed down between each suspect.

Obviously, everyone won't be able to drive and use it but I think that's clever way to ease the workload.

@ShanghaiDiva what happens to people who have the virus mildly and have to stay home, food wise? Do relations have to get the food for them?
A poster asked what would happen yesterday.

Have you bought masks? If yes, did you get surgical ones or N95? Thanks.

@ofwarren
Under the information I have received from my compound re control of the virus if you have it you will be taken to a medical facility and quarantined you cannot remain at home.
We have been informed that if we flew home and did not pass the temp check at the airport we would be quarantined for tests at a medical facility. If people on the plane three rows in front of us and three rows behind failed the temp check and we were fine we would be quarantined in a hotel until those with a temp had been tested.

Who is this Dr John person? I haven’t watched any videos but I’ve had a google about and I don’t understand why he’s being given such authority here? As far as I can see he’s an educator and doesn’t have any WHO or SAGE connection at all. What have I missed?

I have just bought a big 5l bottle of hand gel - the same stuff that we use at work. I bought four little bottles of Milton the other day and will decant when they are empty. I figure this way is probably cheaper and also less plastic from an environmental point of view, and there's nothing in it to go off so we will use it all at some point.

I have some disposable ffp3s from Screwfix. If you can only get surgical masks you can improve their efficiency by using surgical tape to fix them to your face.

@wherearemychickens The waste when all this is over is going to be astronomical isn't it. Most of the masks being used are single use and the buying of wipes and hand gels is unprecedented.

Thanks FourTeaFallOut.