Prepping for a pandemic....5

[wheresmymojo]

5th thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

Anxiety

As Preppers we tend to look at a reasonable worst case scenario to plan for. Everyone is welcome on the thread but if you find it makes you anxious be kind to yourself and think about sticking to once daily updates from the BBC or similar

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Prepping Scenarios

Most of us are prepping for the following situations:

• Wanting to stay indoors for 2-4 weeks + in case of a local outbreak / schools being closed

• Potentially being ill with a flu type illness lasting 2-3 weeks with one or more of the household having the illness

• Having to take a family member to hospital for COVID or any other reason during an outbreak

Prepping Items

Threads 1&2 have lists of things to think about to prep for the first scenario as do the Brexit prepping threads.

Main differences/additions to something like the Brexit list are:

• Face masks if you can get them for any trips you have to make in public during an outbreak. These don't offer full protection and cannot be 100% relied upon but are probably better than nothing if you make sure you wear them correctly and dispose of them correctly. N95 masks are best but expensive and harder to wear, surgical face masks are second best. Dust masks are not going to help.

• Hand sanitiser needs to be 60% or more alcohol content

• Dettol / bleach / Miltons to disinfect. Not all disinfectants work but these three do

• Plenty of at home/over counter treatments for flu type symptoms should you need to treat at home

• Tissues (lots of) should you catch the virus

• Think about meals that are easy to cook and eat should you be ill or both parents be ill at the same time (soup for example)

• For a potential hospital trip you may want to prep a 'go bag' should you need to take someone to hospital with the virus (or anything else) during an outbreak. See Thread 1&2 for examples of what people are packing

• Frequent and thorough hand washing, not touching your face and social distancing (no handshakes, hugs, etc) are some of the most effective ways to stay virus free

Other Thoughts

India have announced that they are stopping exports of some antibiotics, hormone treatments and vitamin supplements as they rely on China for raw materials.

Many factories that supplied fibre for use in sanitary towels and tampons are being diverted to manufacture face masks. Consider stocking up or changing to sustainable items (cloth STs, mooncup, period pants)

In the children's hospital? Yeah it's a worry.
We are due a biopsy, a minor surgery and he has bloods done in Leeds every 12 weeks. I don't know what to do to be honest.

Italy announced leaving or entering one of the towns with an outbreak will now be a criminal offense. 50,000 residents in lockdown.

I mentioned this to people and they just said 'they're overblowing it'.

How long does it take for people to realise that perhaps governments are resorting to extreme measures because they've witnessed how dangerous this could be?

Bog standard leaks mainly, contamination, Eg in Monmouth due to flooding.

@littlebillie preppers prepare for every eventuality so they will store water in case they lose access to the tap water for some reason.
People prepping just for coronavirus might not do that because there is no reason that quarantine would mean we lose access to utilities.

@YoursTunbridgeWells

endless endemic for decades, transmibility etc. he mentioned as his fears

Maybe I need to watch it again, but I didn’t get that from what he said. He’s ‘had a cold’ for a while now, like lots of people.

There wasn’t any good news in today’s message, but that’s not the same as saying we’re have no hope- the end is nigh’

‘The End’ is NOWHERE near inevitable, it’s really not.

A lot has changed in a day.

I wouldn't get my kids to shower as soon as they come home, but the clothes in the freezer idea and hands washed as soon as they get in might be more reassuring for the parents without the kids getting anxious? I'm just going to give my secondary age kids hand gel and tissues and wash the little ones hands when they get in. Sell it as starting some good hygiene rules for the new year.

I'm trying out a few power banks for my phone in case ( God forbid) I need to go look after my mum or go near a hospital. Kind of things really I should be doing anyway really. We had a water cut yesterday and it does make you think what you would do in the middle of the night with no water, no electricity etc. A fully charged power bank or two would be so handy.

Also if my phone was going flat I can charge it in my car ( except my car does today so that's tomorrows prep as mum is two 60 mile train journey away via London)

Must buy some more wine. I still haven't bought any. If I'm going to be healthy self isolating I would need to know I had wine IF I needed it to unwind after the kids bed time.

I have stocked up on painkillers not least because i have stress related migraines. I had one today after car broke down. Last thing I want is panic buying on killers and no painkillers during a migraine.

Some people will never believe it kater
Normalcy bias is strong

FFS kater. Some people are really resistant to information and have an overdose of normalcy bias.

Autistic tween ( bloody minded one at that who will be getting phone bans if they don't wash their hands) I can understand, but grown ups?

www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-kills-chinese-doctor-peng-yinhua-delayed-wedding-fight-disease-2020-2?amp&r=US&IR=T&__twitter_impression=true
I don't remember reading about the 29 year old doctor who died in China? I may have just missed it though.

@ofwarren

I wouldn’t actually be too concerned about the children’s hospital. Considering what grubby beasts they can be, the CV doesn’t appear to like them very much (thank god).

Obviously all you can do is weigh up what it would mean to not have the biopsy/surgery/bloods that he’s scheduled for then decide. I would personally go sooner rather than later because really the risk of getting it & is going to get higher rather than lower for a while isn’t it. Plus the risk of fewer doctors and less resources as time goes on.

@BlackeyedSusan. Same really. Depends how important the hospital appointments are and what the updates are closer to the day.

I haven't received the appointments through for either the biopsy or the surgery yet. Biopsy is routine every 5 years after a transplant and the surgery is cosmetic to fix a small hernia.
Bloods are different though. He gets checked for rejection every 12 weeks.

Bit of a random question - my sister (a teacher) calls me crazy for prepping however tonight she has asked what will happen to those who have to suddenly quarantine and have no prep? Will they be delivered food? I assume no hence why I've prepped myself but it's an interesting question.

It depends what kind of quarantine. In Wuhan, they are allowed to the shop twice a week in facemasks.
If you are quarantined because you actually have the virus, I'm assuming you would have to arrange for someone to bring you food?

@ofwarren. I don’t think I could bring myself to skip the biopsy & obviously not the bloods. I don’t know about the small cosmetic hernia. If leaving it for a couple of years wouldn’t make much difference I’d do that & just chose a time in the future that seems low risk. I would hope that given your DS’s condition they’d be extra vigilant and as I said (very luckily) children seem to be fairly low risk carriers so less likely to be so much risk in a CH. of him picking it up.

Though - just a thought. Is it worth asking if the biopsy & bloods could be done at the same time, that cuts the risk way down. And if they could do the hernia while he’s there anyway. Different staff I know, but shouldn’t be beyond them to organise.

Interesting comments from Dr John Campbell about Ethiopian Airlines. A large number of Chinese use direct flights to Addis Ababa. Ethiopia as a country would not be well placed to deal with a mass outbreak of Covid-19.

The head of the WHO, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus is Ethiopian. He is not a doctor, though he has a science degree, and a Ph.D. in community health. He was minister of health, then Ethiopia's minister of foreign affairs before becoming director-general of WHO. There are suggestions he is very keen not to fall out with China, rumblings of WHO collusion with the CCP, accepting their statistics though their record on transparency - or lack of - is legendary. A petition on Change.org for him to resign has massive support... but viruses don't sign petitions, and none of that will change what has happened to date, and what is yet to happen.

Remember serious cases and fatalities in China have mainly (though not exclusively) been men, middle-aged and older. Many of these already had compromised health. Some 60% of Chinese men smoke, only 2% (I think) of women do. As a population their knowledge and understanding of the negative health effects of smoking is poor. Tobacco is big business there. Historically there have been initiatives encouraging people to smoke more. And pollution is off the scale. Of course we know there are, to date, a comparatively small number of confirmed deaths in western Europe, but that population as a whole are in a different league when it comes to lung health.

I work in a supermarket, so facing the public during every shift. The public, their children, their loyalty cards, their cash... all potentially germ-laden, but unless senior management instructs it I can't wear masks or gloves at the till. I do clean every surface around the till as frequently as practical, including the touchpad on the card reader. I pop "to the loo" every two hours to wash my hands properly, and use Milton hand gel between each customer. And whilst nobody has said anything, the expressions from staff and from customers suggests I'm being a little bit weird.

My little DGS attends day nursery, and mercifully has been more robust this winter than last, when he had repeated ENT infections. I can't antibac him (is that a verb?) before he comes into my house, but he knows that hand-washing properly, with soap, is non-negotiable, and I clean as appropriate in the house. I wonder if he is more of a risk to me than I am to him.

I've always been a prepper by nature, and a hoarder too, with a 'might-be-useful' mentality, I have pretty good stocks of most things. I worry most about loss of income, let's hope this isn't any sort of catastrophe for any of us. Eat your greens, as important as it's ever been.

Korea is up to 556. An increase of 347. They are going to have to work hard to contain it.

@YourWinter if only everyone was as vigilant as you I expect we wouldn’t be in this situation! Don’t worry about them looking at you like you have two heads. It’s just good, basic hygiene which I think has largely gone by the by as we have got better drugs to deal with the bugs

The older we get the more risk we are at, so he is definitely more of a risk to you than you to him!?

Though children are not the heavy carriers/spreaders for this virus.

Very interesting Re WHO - China - Ethiopia

I know I shouldn’t have, but I did laugh when he was talking about the statement the NHS put out about being well prepared and him saying that when he was working in the hospital last year they weren’t even prepared for Monday.

So so true

@PpppPenguin

Carnevale in Venice has been on for a couple of weeks already. It finishes on Tue or Wed. But all the towns have their own celebrations too. The closest ones to us have been cancelled already.

@Ifonly4 are you flying home? Let me know how it goes.

We're (me and DS2) are due to fly home on the 1st March. I hope nothing changes. We've waited for the hospital appt since Sept!

All sleeping except me. Freezing cold and then boiling hot. Poor DH! He's alternately being used as a hot water bottle and an ice pack. I did get him a bottle of water when I made a coffee.

Thanks for the coffee reminder - we've only got about two weeks supply in. Maybe more if I get the beans out. Not ideal when ill!!

I only have a week of DS2s meds in and about the same of mine. Will try and get a prescription for those early next week.

DS2 hated the crushed ABs. God only knows how i'll get them in him tomorrow/today.

I'm really worried if things get locked down here how it would work with people getting home etc. My son attends a secondary school out of the area and I'm so worried if things get locked down how he would get home . Do they give a grace period of say a hour to get home before licking everything down?

Insomnia tonight so catching up.

This is one of the best summaries I've read to date - worth bookmarking as it's rather long and you may want to get tea and biscuits

telliamedrevisited.wordpress.com/2020/02/22/expert-analyses-of-the-sars-cov-2-outbreak/

https://www.open.online/2020/02/22/esclusivo-ecco-il-testo-del-decreto-d-emergenza-sul-coronavirus/amp/?twitterr_impression=true

Read in google chrome for translation.

What the Italians are doing to combat spread.

I really don't know the ins and outs of how a lockdown works. I'm sure we'll hear all about it from Italians over the next few days as they don't have the restrictions that the Chinese have on accessing the internet/speaking out/etc.

On Italy:

During his speech Prime Minister said 11 towns in northern Italy are now under quarantine: Vo' Euganeo (Veneto cluster) and 10 towns around Lodi (Lombardia bigger cluster): Euganeo, Codogno, Castiglione d'Adda, Casalpusterlengo, Fombio, Maleo, Somaglia, Bertonico, Terranova dei Passerini, Castelgerundo e San Fiorano

He said people will be free to walk outside but won't be allowed to leave the town. Police blocks being set up. Army is not involved but on alert. They're planning to test thousands people and are asking people cooperation. "We can't let another guy try to run away", said PM a few mins ago. People is cooperating, so far, staying in their houses. They're planning to test whole Vo' Euganeo population. Patients 0 of both clusters are not found yet.

A man tried to leave the zone today, to reach his family. He's been found and tested, and so is his family. Anyone caught trying to leave (from now on) will be arrested and charged with 3 months reclusion.

Balance so far: 79 infected +1 from Diamond Princess. 2 deads (one tested post mortem)
33x hospitalized with symptoms, 18x in serious conditions. Many asymptomatics.

Here's all the UK guidance on pandemics

www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu

Veneto - will probably get the train as it'll just be a bus and very long train journey, rather than a bus, flight, train and then bus. Tempted to swap buses for taxis but it will save money, especially as am having to book everything again. Didn't insure as in uk.

One good thing, nurse calling in DD every day for a week. I thought she'd be visiting doctor/hospital every day for dressings.

Just wondering if government are secretly prepping to get their new hospitals built a lot quicker