Prepping for a pandemic....5

[wheresmymojo]

5th thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

Anxiety

As Preppers we tend to look at a reasonable worst case scenario to plan for. Everyone is welcome on the thread but if you find it makes you anxious be kind to yourself and think about sticking to once daily updates from the BBC or similar

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Prepping Scenarios

Most of us are prepping for the following situations:

• Wanting to stay indoors for 2-4 weeks + in case of a local outbreak / schools being closed

• Potentially being ill with a flu type illness lasting 2-3 weeks with one or more of the household having the illness

• Having to take a family member to hospital for COVID or any other reason during an outbreak

Prepping Items

Threads 1&2 have lists of things to think about to prep for the first scenario as do the Brexit prepping threads.

Main differences/additions to something like the Brexit list are:

• Face masks if you can get them for any trips you have to make in public during an outbreak. These don't offer full protection and cannot be 100% relied upon but are probably better than nothing if you make sure you wear them correctly and dispose of them correctly. N95 masks are best but expensive and harder to wear, surgical face masks are second best. Dust masks are not going to help.

• Hand sanitiser needs to be 60% or more alcohol content

• Dettol / bleach / Miltons to disinfect. Not all disinfectants work but these three do

• Plenty of at home/over counter treatments for flu type symptoms should you need to treat at home

• Tissues (lots of) should you catch the virus

• Think about meals that are easy to cook and eat should you be ill or both parents be ill at the same time (soup for example)

• For a potential hospital trip you may want to prep a 'go bag' should you need to take someone to hospital with the virus (or anything else) during an outbreak. See Thread 1&2 for examples of what people are packing

• Frequent and thorough hand washing, not touching your face and social distancing (no handshakes, hugs, etc) are some of the most effective ways to stay virus free

Other Thoughts

India have announced that they are stopping exports of some antibiotics, hormone treatments and vitamin supplements as they rely on China for raw materials.

Many factories that supplied fibre for use in sanitary towels and tampons are being diverted to manufacture face masks. Consider stocking up or changing to sustainable items (cloth STs, mooncup, period pants)

Nothing to base this on, but I’m thinking that it started spreading overseas much earlier than originally thought, but anyone with those symptoms wasn’t tested as probably just perceived to have a flu-like illness.

I don't think this is the case because clusters of unusual pneumonia cases would have been spotted in the same way they were in China and there wouldn't have been the same kind of issues with sharing that information.

Mega-outing, but I took DS1 to A&E the week before last.

They had a tropical diseases consultant out to see him in a closed department in the middle of the night.

They concluded he had an infection but no obvious location (he was a week post pneumonia ABs). They ran tests for lots of infections, the only one that came back as recently positive was bacterial pneumonia. He's a strong boy normally - he had antibodies against lots of infections I've never noticed him having .

They didn't test for CV though so presumably they weren't concerned, even though his symptoms were a good match for CV. 🤔

The 15 day thing is really concerning as they don't do personal care nursing here so you need a member of the family with you all the time. That's a lot of extra people in hospitals on the elderly wards.

My DC are 10+. Given DH and I are extremely high risk of dying (he's a current smoker) and me (former smoker - how on earth can I be higher risk than him!) - I want the DC to choose a guardian.

If we weren't such high risk - it seems the ACE 2 receptors thing about this that kills you is basically smokers/ex-smokers, then I'd be more relaxed. But the huge spread in Italy and Iran over the last 48 hours tells me, it's probably silently travelling round the UK already.
This means I could be on borrowed time already.

My worst fear is DH and I die at home (because nobody's going to waste a bed on high risk people) and the DC won't know what to do, or who to call. I don't want them orphaned and landing up in some awful quarantine centre if possible. They need to know what to do, who to call. They need to be prepared.

Please dont tell your children Tunbridge. My eldest is 16 and his mental health was shattered by having a disabled sibling. Once they get anxious you cant fix it for them. Please dont do that.

No one knows how this is going to pan out but I'm certain it's not going to worse scenario or best. It could be anywhere in that scale.

My kids are in the mind its mild and I reinforce that. Nothing positive can come from telling them.otherwise. if they worry what will that change? What can they control? Not much possibly.

I got worms as I child and I developed OCD about germs and handwashing for years. Such tiny things can really manifest in children's minds.

Where and how will the NHS be treating any children who get diagnosed? Will be much harder quarantining a child.
When my son is in hospital I have a bed next to his and I do all his personal care. Obviously that couldn't happen.

Tunbridge, instead of telling them why don't you put your energy into writing a useful document for them with phone numbers, what to do in xyz scenario etc. If you actually got ill, you'd still have time to pull it out of a drawer, but it can sit safely in there all the time it isn't needed. Your kids will be better off without this on their shoulders.

I presume if the kids got ill it would still be ok to stay with them? No idea. I wouldn't want to leave them as they cant advocate for themselves?
I dont think from the sounds of it kids are getting very unwell so hopefully no need to worry about that.

Jesus wept @YoursTunbridgeWells. Please do NOT sit your kids down and ask them to choose a guardian because you've decided that you are on borrowed time. This is your anxiety talking and has zero to do with reality.

I strongly recommend you stop looking at CV related stuff online for a while, you are going to end up making yourself really mentally unwell.

@YoursTunbridgeWells Please don’t ask them who they want for a guardian, that’s too much for them. Do you have your dh there to look after you? Switch all this conjecture off, we’re all fine and if we get a fluey cold 99% of us will be fine.

Writing your wishes for your kids down and putting it away is a good idea.

You could do all that Tunbridge without actually telling them the reason.
You tell them what to do in an emergency. You tell them who to ring. There is absolutely no need at this point to scare them half to death.

It’s your job to choose a guardian, @YoursTunbridgeWells, not the DC’s. It’s a good idea with or without CV.

@YoursTunbridgeWells, were you completely honest with your Dr? You’ve said you’re feeling suicidal every day, you haven’t bought your DD school shoes she urgently needs because you assume you’re all dying and now you’re planning to tell your kids about your assumed imminent death and get them to choose a guardian. You need more support than increased medication and so do your children. Do you have a social worker?

Please don't scare your kids because you are having a mental health crisis, Tunbridge I know you are scared but putting this on them is short-sighted and not what they need right now. They need you to be strong and calm and not scare the living heck out of them.

I grew up with a depressive anxious mother (single parent) who told me all the time she thought she'd die young, because she just wanted me to be prepared. It massively fucked me up.

Also, the death rate is around 2% and 25% of adults in China smoke. It increases risk, it doesn’t make it fatal

@YoursTunbridgeWells

How old are you and DH?

I think if we did the maths you'd see that you are at a a much lower risk of dying from this than you think even in a worst case scenario.

You are almost certainly at a higher risk every time you get into a car at the moment.

What about making sure your DC know who they should call if they need to speak to someone and you and DH aren't available for whatever reason without actually worrying them about this in particular?

I don't think this is the case because clusters of unusual pneumonia cases would have been spotted in the same way they were in China and there wouldn't have been the same kind of issues with sharing that information.

That is somewhat reassuring NaturalBornWoman

I have to agree with echobench on this one Tunbridge. It's your responsibility to choose a guardian, not your DC's. It needs to be discussed between you and DH and the potential guardian and agreed before you even think about mentioning it to your DC.

My DC know that BIL will look after them if anything should happen to us. BUT this is not a conversation that we started with them. DS (who has ASD) got very obsessed with death and parents dying after watching Star Wars and it took us a while to realise that he was actually worried about what would happen to him and DD if something happened to us. Once we realised that and told him (after it had been discussed and agreed with BIL) he was a lot calmer. We would not have brought it into conversation if he had never asked.

Make sure they know how to call emergency services, family friend whoever. That's a good thing to know anyway. And leave the guardian stuff between the adults.

Nearlyschooltimeagain**
What town are you in in Italy?
Do you know the other towns in quarantine?
I have family in Caserta

@YoursTunbridgeWells please seek urgent help with your mental health crisis, you are not thinking about this in a reasonable way at all. Do you have a crisis number you can contact? Some of the things you are saying are very disturbing and I think you need to reach out. X

Hi There YoursTunbridgeWells,

We hope you don't mind us popping up on your thread but we wanted to urge you to seek support in real life - perhaps your GP or Health Visitor or a close friend might be able to reassure you about the current situation.

We hope things look less worrying for you very soon.

@CrapTVAddict

More info on Italy

In Italy there are 16 infections
In total there are 14 positive cases of Coronavirus in Lombardy, with the 8 new reported in the press conference to the Region. To these must be added the other 2 cases in Veneto, positive results in the first tests.

Insulation measures in 10 municipalities in the Lodi area
"We are preparing an ordinance that prohibits all aggregation activities in 10 municipalities in the Lodigiano area". This was stated by the Lombardy Region Welfare Councilor, Giulio Gallera during the press conference currently underway. For a week people will stay indoors. Among the municipalities concerned Codogno, Casalpusterlengo, Maleo, Fombio, Somaglia, Castiglione d'Adda, Bertonico, Castelgerundo, Terranova dei Passerini.

Two elderly people infected in Padua
The first two cases of contagion from Coronavirus in Veneto have been ascertained. These are two elderly people, both tested positive in the Infectious Diseases department of the Padua Hospital, where the two patients are still hospitalized. The test swabs were sent to the Spallanzani Institute in Rome for further feedback.

Zaia: a case in critical conditions
"For us the analyzes are positive, we are waiting for confirmation from Spallanzani, I spoke several times with Borrelli this afternoon". The president of Veneto, Luca Zaia said this, arriving in Padua at the headquarters of Ulss 6 Euganea after the news of the two Venetians positive for Coronavirus. Zaia confirmed that "they are two citizens of Vo 'Euganeo, one from '42 and one from '53, one in critical condition in intensive care".

Thank you wheresmymojo, it's very worrying

Italy are taking strong measures to control it. They are tracing contacts, they are reducing the mingling of people. This is good news.

One thing you can learn though. Towns have been put into infection control at short notice so it is worth keeping your larder, fridge and freezer stocked up and not them run short. Balancing this with not going out more often than needed. Really hated Asda today as it was quite crowded.

Jeez don't tell that to the kids. 😶