Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

The problem is there only testing people that have actually got symptoms and has been in contact with a person who has coronavirus or has been to China.
How many people have had no symptoms but are carriers? Is that possible?

TreeSandSea personally I think the York case was a bit odd. Fair enough student staying with his Mum if she was visiting, but why hadn't he been into lectures, popped back to his room for course books, joined up with friends. DD is 650 miles away, we're seeing her next week - she wants us to see her new accommodation, meet some friends. We'll also be doing some touristy things and eating out (with caution). When we've gone to bed, she'll tracking down friends again.

Looks like the WHO have a different definition of a contact from the UK

apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1268248/retrieve

What I mean is, WHO’s list of ‘contacts’ includes anyone who has shared any type of conveyance, anyone who has shared a classroom etc.

@Alone07 yes it is a fact. Epidemiologists are staying that we are only confirming a proportion of coronavirus carriers.

Went for my B12 injection at my GPs, there is absolutely NOTHING in there at all about the virus No leaflets, no posters, no info at all

@TreesSandSea it's like the government has in fact shrugged its shoulders at this virus and declared, "what's the point in really trying to contain it!"

I thought so @floatgoat I think it's all the uncertainty that's the worst.
I guess apart from being hygienic and staying away from people who are poorly is the only things we can do.
Which even then when you have children who have to attend school is pretty much impossible.
I remeber when swine flu was about my eldests asthma was extremely bad at the time and we made the decision with the doctors and school to keep him of and that was just before the summer holidays which then gave swine flu chance to calm down a bit.
I did see somewhere (can not quite remember where though) that this type of coronavirus was likely to stay and just be apart of a new normal virus in the long run.

France has just reported first CV death

Oh no.

Also 67 new cases on the cruise = 285 cases

The US has announced its going to evacuate US citizens from the cruise.

The French death confirmed as 80 yr old Chinese tourist

China have made an announcement that any cases of purposefully spreading CV will face 10 years imprisonment or even the death penalty

And also that they are banning people with a fever or a cough from taking public transport, going to work or travel.

For those wondering why we aren't seeing new cases daily, this Wikipedia page shows how the numbers looked in China from about mid January onwards: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak#Epidemiology

Given that the outbreak started in China in December, you can see it takes a while to get going.

The article says "During the early stages, the number of cases doubled approximately every seven and a half days."

The UK had cases #1 and #2 diagnosed on 31st January.

So going on the 7.5 days of doubling, you'd have expected 4 cases by 7th Feb. Then 8 cases by around 15th February.

#3 was on February 6th
#4 on February 9th
#5,6,7,8 on Feb 10th

Numbers seem pretty much on track at the moment. I'm not saying the spread will necessarily be the same, as there are many differences between UK now and China in December in terms of awareness and response. But don't assume just because there are only 9 cases now that it's not spreading here. China only had 9 cases at one point too.

Bloody hell.

DH is a GP - the biggest problem they are facing is people turning up at the surgery or A&E claiming they have the virus. They have been sent the text from NHS England and a text and letter from the surgery telling them not to come to the surgery or go to A&E but to call 111.

lemonjumper thank you, that is exactly the sort of data I was looking for. Though interested to check out the source it came from (via Wikipedia).

Going to take a look now

To mojo, but will also do for a reply to lemon...

bellinisurge what a weird article - talking about how to get deliveries and deal with takeaways rather than just saying “hey, why not get some pasta and tins of beans in so you don’t ace to stress about it?”

wheresmymojo that’s a bit concerning actually about the consequences of spreading - I just hope they apply a robust definition of “purposely” spreading and don’t round up the poor sods that hadn’t known they were infected

@ifonly4 York had graduations that week. It seems like they were probably there for that bit got ill before doing anything.

Parker231 that’s definitely something I’m worried about as a knock on affect - all the increased cases/potential cases taking up appointments or resources for other illnesses.

Ps: Can I just say that elderberry juice and rose hip syrup are the most disgusting things on the planet.

There's also a few updates of new cases from Japan.

A doctor and his wife, plus 8 others in Tokyo - 7 of which are linked to one of the taxi drivers.

I think Japan really seems to have reached a tipping point these last couple of days. I'm anticipating that the numbers there will really start to rise over the next week.

It will be interesting to see how they chose to deal with it as the first country outside China to have an epidemic. I don't think they have put any controls in place internally yet...

70s child of 30s children