Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Yes... we’re all going to get it, may as well be prepared.

Well, the poeple of Fife will know where to break in to loot for food should it all kick off echobench!

Actually Ilovebloodywomen might be on to something with the Elderberry juice, it is very high in vitamin C which is known to help fight viruses. I give DD Sambucol teddies which are made from elderberries, expensive but gives her a boost during the winter months.

I also give DD Better You Vitamin D spray during the winter months as well as Kids Biotix Prebiotics as that is meant to help boost immune system too.

Ibloodylovewomen - I can't comment on the benefits of elderberry juice, but on the two occasions I've had pneumonia, all I've wanted and could face was refreshing things like fruit and juices, so maybe it won't do any harm to have it in.

We've been eating a lot healthier the last week or so, easily getting our five a day in, in the hope this may help our immune system. Can't do any harm healthwise.

DD at uni in Fife. She has a large group of friends, so they know where to go now!

Just seen the photo towards the end of the article, that's going to help us track him down.

The wicked ffp3 mask that someone kindly posted a link, are these reusable?

That should say Wickes

Does anybody know if that baby who was quarantined tested negative? I was wondering about him and all mention of it seems to have disappeared from the news.

Errrrrm did anybody see the GP on BBC breakfast about an hour ago? Saying this is no more contagious or deadly than seasonal flu - wtf is she thinking?!

@Makinganewthinghappen the baby's results were due yesterday. I'm presuming negative as not been in the news.

that's going to help us track him down.

Social distancing can slow the rate of spread of the virus by up to a third. So presumably other actions like contact tracing, hand sanitising, mask wearing, and travel reduction can all have an effect too. Every little helps.

This. And just in case you missed, it, lifted from the bbc article here :

By late December, medical staff in Wuhan were beginning to notice unusual symptoms of viral pneumonia, with a cluster linked to the market trading in illegal wildlife. On 30 December, Dr Li Wenliang, an ophthalmologist working in Wuhan's Central Hospital, posted his concerns in a private medical chat group, advising colleagues to take measures to protect themselves.....

...But despite the multiplying cases and the concerns among medics that human-to-human transmission was taking place, the authorities did little to protect the public. Doctors were already setting up quarantine rooms and anticipating extra admissions when Wuhan held its important annual political gathering, the city's People's Congress.

In their speeches, the Communist Party leaders made no mention of the virus. China's National Health Commission continued to report that the number of infections was limited and that there was no clear evidence that the disease could spread between humans.

And on 18 January the Wuhan authorities allowed a massive community banquet to take place, involving more than 40,000 families. The aim was to set a record for the most dishes served at an event. Two days later, China finally confirmed that human-to-human transmission was indeed taking place.

Most remarkable of all perhaps, the following day, Wuhan held a Lunar New Year dance performance, attended by senior officials from across the surrounding province of Hubei. A state media report of the event, since hurriedly deleted but captured here, says the performers, some with runny noses and feeling unwell, "overcame the fear of pneumonia... winning praise from the leaders".

By the time the national authorities had woken up to the impending disaster, and closed the city down on 23 January, it was too late - the epidemic was out of control. Before Wuhan's transport links were cut, an estimated five million people had left the city for the Lunar New Year break, travelling across China and the world.

Hey all, I’ve been following these threads from the start and I am a prepper, I also have a horrible head cold at the moment and I am laid up in bed so lots of time to think. And also to read the papers coming out of Imperial, which make sobering reading.

Presumably if CV19 is going to take hold here in the uk, we would see the number of cases start to rise rapidly very soon. Like in the next 5 days or so, if the 14 day incubation period is correct? I’ve been waiting for this to happen so that people start to take hygiene etc seriously, but the numbers just don’t seem to be adding up to me. I predicted to DH a doubling most days for the past week or so )since the York cases) but we seem to have had steady numbers?

Any thoughts welcome. I think this is feeding into the ‘it’s only flu, you’re all being ridiculous’ trope.

I'm being cautious and have been buying extras but mainly because things have already started to run out.
I have 2 children with asthma so that slightly concerns me.
On Monday I will be making sure prescriptions are up to date.
What really worried me yesterday was when I went to the doctors with my son there was nothing about the coronavirus until you were at the reception desk.
You would think they would of put it on the front door before you actually went through everyone coughing and sputtering.
My youngest who is at nursery has a big sign up at the front door about what to do if you think you have been near someone or have symptoms and have been to certain countries.

Here's info on the BBC about self isolation Coronavirus: How do you self-isolate successfully? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51506729
For all of you who can't afford to have pizza delivered for three meals as day or who think that's a shit idea and no way to stay healthy, maybe getting a buffer of food in (as suggested on here ) would be helpful.

@treesSandSea I suspect it is being passed around the general population but people aren’t being tested. If I pitched up with symptoms at a hospital and said I was worried about Coronavirus I doubt they would test me if I have no links to a case. Also the turnaround time for testing seems to be 2-3 days, during which people are sent home and told to self isolate which I find bizarre. They really need to speed up testing turnaround times.

My son's nursery has the sign on the outside door. I haven't been the GP but the pharmacy we use only had the sign on the counter. There is just no common sense at all.

Hope you feel better soon TreesSandSea . I agree Alone07 , simple advice before you enter a space which has medically vulnerable people in it would be sensible.

Thanks Ariella. So you think it’s spreading but we’ll only see the number of cases rise in a little while when people realise they haven’t got ‘just a cold’ and that it’s more serious? That this is the calm before the storm?

Are there any models anyone is aware of that show what numbers we would expect when if it spread through the uk population in the same way it did in Wuhan?

Yes those wickes masks with the filters last for at least a month and you can buy replacement filters.

I am aware of the ‘total numbers’ model, just wondered whether there is one that looks at the numbers over time

It really makes no sense 🤷‍♀️ I know most people should know about the coronavirus but the reality is a lot don't and some just don't care.
I have been really hot on hand washing and even showing my 4 year old how to cough appropriately (just good practice anyway).
But I have a feeling it's already out there and the government has left it to late to contain it.
More like try and slow it down now and hope for the best.

Alone I agree but then why aren’t we seeing more cases? No additional cases in the past 3 days?

Doing another big shop today. I ordered powdered milk last time, from Asda, but there was none in and no other brand available for substitution.
I'm going to get a lot more tins and dried goods. Need more bleach too.

Well, if incubation is up to 14 days (or longer, depending what you read) and it takes a further week for symptoms to become severe, then we perhaps wouldn't expect to see a spike of community transmitted infections just yet.

www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200214-sitrep-25-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=61dda7d_2 is the latest WHO report. Graphs near the end are really interesting