Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

That makes utterly no sense whatsovever! It must have been a mistranslation.

Oh thank goodness DH's work has seen sense and cancelled their annual conference (about 60% of visitors are from China).

Am having nursing practice right now as youngest has what seems to be the flu. My internet also cut out for an hour or so whilst she was asleep earlier and I was what can I do now that's quiet...?

That is a bit strange about the flu jab. Doesn't make any sense.

Flu vaccine would make no difference. You could extrapolate some speculative stuff about them taking good care of themselves but it would make no difference because it is a different virus.

South Korea have had 53 new cases today and one death. Definitely a local epidemic there now.

They've closed schools for a week. I don't know very much about the culture in Korea but I don't think they'll do full lockdowns like China(?) so it will be an interesting test case but obviously sad for those involved that get a serious case.

I cant see how past flu vaccines would help. They are like keys, unique to each flu 'lock' it has to be a good fit to work together. Identical.

Hopefully they will be the robust sort that can get away with mild / no symptoms. I bet their family are worried as it's far away and via ( pardon the pun) Chinese whispers it seems.

Someone linked to a youtube video earlier but it is weirdly saying it is not available - It doesn't even have a title or anything? so I cant remember what it was - I clicked the link into another tab then got called away. Anyone else finding that on any of the videos?

Like this. Never seen one without ANY info?

South Korea's new cases really bring home how quickly things can get out of control once the touch paper has been lit.

I think it's interesting (and potentially reassuring) that regions of China outside of Hubei haven't experienced Wuhan levels of infection despite having reported 100s of cases over the weeks. Some regions have 500+ yet we haven't seen the same explosion of cases. Yet?

Is it simply a matter of timing given that the virus has been present in Wuhan for longer (and left unchecked Dec-Jan) or are there other factors at play? You'd think areas with 500+ cases would be spiralling to Hubei levels quickly 🤔

@NotYourTypicalNerd what is the URL of the video? Given the blankness of the rest of the page, it looks more like an error than anything.

@AvocadoOwl
Because of the action the Chinese have taken, there does not seem to be a huge increase in cases in other provinces. Tibet has had one case, discharged from hospital. My province has about 630, no deaths, about 300 recoveries to date, total population of province circa 75 million.
Travel restrictions are helping to control the spread, which is exactly the opposite of what was happening at the end of January when millions of journeys were being made due to spring festival.

Would ex-smokers be at increased risk? I think the lungs start to repair when someone stops but assume some permanent damage is done.

About the masks. Wondering if anyone's received theirs from Scion Supply? Someone (apologies, can't remember who) posted a link last week. I've not had any despatch info from them yet. Unsurere how long to wait before requesting a refund.

In terms of emotional prepping. I was getting far too anxious a few weeks ago. I'm in an at risk category, as is DP, and several other family members. Then I discovered the prepping threads. I find prepping very calming. Emotional prepping for me means knowing I've done all that I reasonably can to ensure I'm as prepared as possible.

Are you still in HK @ShanghaiDiva? Did I remember that right? How are you faring?

I can feel my anxiety spiralling a bit today (after foolishly looking on twitter and seeing a horrific new video of someone twitching on the floor) but you are SO right to point out the figures in context of population numbers. It's a tiny proportion of people affected currently, even in Wuhan (if the figures are to be believed anyway).

I think it's easy to see all the news/twitter footage and envision some kind of apocalyptic wasteland with people dropping dead on every street corner when the reality (although awful) doesn't quite match up to the version offered up by the imagination.

Twitching on the floor means it's more likely the poor person is having a grand mal seizure (which aren't related to COVID).

Okay, going to start a new thread....back with a link shortly.

New thread

Prepping for a pandemic....5 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/preppers/3828283-prepping-for-a-pandemic-5

I hope you are right about the twitching. There have been an awful lot of similar videos doing the rounds though with speculation about cytokine storms etc. Scary stuff.

@AvocadoOwl
I am back in the uk, but dh is in HK.
I agree it’s easy to become overwhelmed when looking at media reports, but the Chinese are being very strict on quarantine and movement between cities and looking at figures outside Hubei this is encouraging. There is a long way to go, but am hoping we can return home end of March.

@Tryingtoprep

I ordered masks from Scion on 14th February and they also arrived yesterday.

@ofwarren. Sorry I'm late to this, been at work. Not sure how old your son is but he may get less medication than you if it is in liquid form as it is expensive and the dates are often short so wastage is higher if longer supplies given.
If there is a practice pharmacist in your GP surgery they should be able to help with advice if things do run short as regards getting the original stuff or alternatives