Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Have to pop out for an hour or so and then will start a new thread when I'm back...

@ofwarren I usually have monthly repeat prescriptions, but my GP has just supplied me with two months so it may be worth asking. I have AEDs so essential, as your DSs meds will be too. This is anecdote not data but my pharmacist said in the case of shortages/backlogs meds for life threatening conditions (they mentioned epilepsy and diabetes but I'm sure there is much more) will be prioritised. I've made that sound scary probably, but I actually found it reassuring!

I do think my pharmacist is a secret prepper though. Maybe we need a secret handshake

The fact that China has socail media lockdown doesn't help. No one knows for sure what's going on over there. Add to that the way they chop and change their stats reporting.

I'm still not panicked, but this thread is very interesting as I dont think we know the true statistics yet. After Brexit a bit of prepping contingency seems sensible.

One of my son's drugs is on that list @wheresmymojo he has the cold sore virus and needs liquid aciclovir as his body cannot fight the virus. Great...

So, why are you on the preppers thread if you think this is a convenient cover to bury bad news amd4578?

Swine flu death rate was 0.026%. This is much higher and much more contagious.

Plus social media has moved on 10 years.

I suspect those who prepped then though are also prepping now. My surgical face masks are the ones I bought for swine flu which have sat in the cupboard since then.

I do think my pharmacist is a secret prepper though. Maybe we need a secret handshake wink

Preppers don't shake hands during a potential pandemic. We need a 'wave from a safe distance'

@WeBuiltCisCityOnSexistRoles I will speak to his doctor to try and get a bigger supply.
I'm on levothyroxine and they give me 3 months at a time yet my son only gets 30 days. He's going to be on these medications for the rest of his life so I don't understand why he gets such a small amount.

(This is meant to be be worded sensitively but apologies for any clumsiness)

I think the whole "ethos", for want of a better word, of these threads is prepping not panicking but I can totally see how people who are more worried than usual in their daily life for other reasons, or prone to anxiety, can find the discussions exacerbate their worries, and I don't think I would find it helpful myself in that situation.

I also think it would be very easy to fall into the habit of checking threads constantly (I can absolutely see myself doing this when stressed for whatever reasons!) and I think I would try and stick to just looking at the BBC news app once a day or something.

I'm certainly not saying people aren't welcome or we are all doom mongers as that isn't the case, just that we should all look after ourselves and be aware of how much headspace we give things based on our own circumstances.

Ironically I've just been put on bed rest with respiratory issues which are long standing but I have still worried at the back of my mind I have caught CV. I know it's ridiculous. On the other hand, I don't have to worry about shopping or paying for online delivery as I am extremely well prepared thanks to these threads/topic.

Swings and roundabouts!

I prepped for swine flu, although this time round as I'd prepped for a no deal Brexit and potential supply chain issues I have just topped that right back up, so we have a lot more food in than I did for swine flu.

But the death rate percentages given right now for CoVID can’t, by a long way, be accurate, because there’s still no realistic understanding of how many infections there are. So it doesn’t make any sense to compare it to swine flu, which benefits from far more accurate modelling in retrospect.

It’s so much more likely that the deaths are the tip of the iceberg in terms of overall infections, but that’s an unknowable number right now.

(Not to negate those deaths, or people’s concerns.)

Well lets hope it isn't right because the current death rate is 12% if you look at the outcome data (dead/survived). WHO are estimating circa 2% though and this has been a consistent estimate from the outset.

But actually I don't think the world is panicking at all. I think the vast majority of people are wandering around in blissful ignorance/denial. If you look at the BBC website you have to hunt for the news that 2 DP passengers have died.

This thread is of course largely an echo chamber, because its on the preppers board. But we are I think very calm and rational about it.

Today is a good day. It is the 14 day limit to those who caught it from Steve day. He was admitted to hospital two weeks ago.

Different people approach it from different directions. Some start at worst case scenario (all going to die) and work backwards to a more realistic position, others do it in the opposite direction. Some start in the middle. Personality, experience, temperament, neurodiversity all play a part.

Some people have more reason to be concerned than others, due to illness, disability, age, family, single parenting, finances.

Eg: single parent, so need to take responsibility for being prepared and able to look after them as just one adult in the flat. Elderly parent. Asthmatic child, autistic family. Hypermobile so react in peculiar ways. Hyper reactors to insect bites etc, allergic to different stuff. But do have a financial buffer and could call on other parent to fetch stuff if allowed.

Just catching up. I think rates of serious illness and death among DP passengers would be expected to be high because essentially it was a ship of people in the highest risk age brackets.

Just catching up. I think rates of serious illness and death among DP passengers would be expected to be high because essentially it was a ship of people in the highest risk age brackets.

On a slight side note re swine flu, there certainly was a lot of panic when it first became know about. On another CV thread someone asked if schools were shut during the swine flu outbreak, well, I don't want to out myself but a well known private school was indeed shut for a week after May half term as a pupil had caught swine flu during his holiday. A colleague of mine was absent for the week after half term, odd as we work in an educational setting . It eventually transpired that said colleague was 'self isolating' due to his son and wife both having confirmed swine flu (son was at the boys' school). The whole family was put on Tamiflu and only allowed back to work and school after two weeks had passed. It was in the news at the time but long forgotten now.

I am finding this thread very calming and helpful, like Dr John Campbell who always looks calmly and compassionately at the developing situation.

I decided to put my emotional/spiritual preparation thoughts in a different thread as this one seems rightly focussed on the practical and on emerging evidence of the spread of illness and best practice for containing and treating it.

In 2009 I bought life insurance, restocked the cupboards and bought Tamiflu privately as prepping. 11 years on, we are older with greater responsibilities and there is no antiviral proven to help. What would you suggest we do?

At some point the old £20 notes will be out of circulation, so if anyone has any stashed for emergency cash, don't forget to switch it out.

Interesting article in the South China Morning News today. How the Healthcare workers have born the brunt of the cover up in China.
reports

reports 1,300 more coronavirus cases among medical workers

South Korea is up 46 cases so far today to 104 total.

If anyone was contemplating the Wickes reusable elipse masks (£23) screwfix have the identical masks on offer at £17.99 and the filters on offer at 9.99 (the masks come with one set of filters enough for a month's worth of use). Screwfix have imposed a limit on purchases of any of their face masks of five per customer.

On the guardian live:

"Sally and David Abel, who were among thousands of passengers on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, said that Japanese doctors had told them that vaccinations which they had in the past for the flu had stopped the virus from spreading further.

The were not displaying any symptoms and were in good spirits, their son Steve added in a live post on Facebook as they awoke on Thursday morning to see photos of his smiling parents in two beds in the same hospital room."

Why would his doctor have mentioned earlier flu vaccines helping to minimise symptoms? Was it just a way of offering comfort? Surely, the flu vaccine wouldn't have helped?

I think my hope for good news is crowding out logic.