Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Japan seems less fuck off we can do what we like than some of the UK.

Noo… rosehip syrup is lovely! (60's child of 20's parents).

@Parker231

This is the problem with possible pandemics. Not just treating people who have it but also the millions of people who can't follow simple bloody instructions

It's times like this that you're reminded that half the population have an IQ below 100.

Maybe yours used more sugar. Mum would remember war ration recipe.

I’ve just read it.

THIS is the info that needs to go out there. Not to panic people, but to make sure they are prepared.

Doubling in numbers every 7.5 days in the initial stages gives us maybe a month, 2 months till SHTF?

Not just families need to prepare now, but medical staff (for eg GP surgeries still with no info on outer doors, nurses saying ‘just the flu), those important in food and drug supply chains.

Feels like those who stood on the beach watching the tsunami approaching.

I’m wondering (and hoping) whether the relative quiet from PHE is because they are getting all their ducks in a row in this calm period ready for launching an all out offensive in a couple of weeks. With the view that - as evidenced here on MN- many of the general population will just ignore all advice and warnings until they actually have a family member with the disease.

People are inherently selfish. To be fair, I ain't planning on sharing my stash.

Sorry, by ‘it’ I mean the paper Lemon linked to. The one about the initial spread rate.

I have noticed that masks are being restocked in Screwfix which is good x

Hello, lurker here joining in.

I have been sensibly worrying about this and have a nice stockpile of food and tissues, Calpol etc.

I have been thinking about the deaths in China and find it surprising that seemingly healthy people, like that whistle-blower doctor died from it, and wondered if it's to do with very high levels of pollution?

I found this article: www.theepochtimes.com/studies-suggest-link-between-high-pollution-levels-in-china-and-coronavirus_3237348.html

Interesting I think, but I guess we will have to see.

Numbers seem pretty much on track at the moment
But France was ahead of us & their numbers haven’t increased at that rate. Is it odd that ours and their cases, both in tourists, don’t appear to have led to secondary spread that we’re aware of?
Of course it’s still early days but hopefully there won’t be any evidence of that popping up. I imagine it’s more difficult to carry out contact tracing with tourists.

Perhaps we would have had more cases here if Brighton man hadn’t gone on the skiing holiday.

Sorry, when I say “ours & theirs” I mean the first cases.

I’m surprised we haven’t seen more numbers here now. I was expecting, following the York case and Brighton man that more would have been affected. It looks like he took a plane journey and nobody on that plane (even those next to him?) were infected.
He flew on the 28th so we are at the end of the incubation period now. To be honest I keep expecting more cases every day (like doubling) and we aren’t seeing that.

@Delatron me too. One of the epidemiologists was saying last week he thinks we are a few weeks behind Singapore, what were there numbers a few weeks ago?

The WHO still thinks around 2 others infected per person and that’s an average, so the super spreaders are evenEd out by lots of people who may only affect one other person. E.g. the Chinese student in York may have infected his Mum but no one else.

If you look back at figures for 7 Feb, some countries (Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan) have doubled cases. Other countries have stablised, increased at a slower rate.

I can't predict what will happen here, but as the population are aware it means people are getting tested in the early stages, isolating, washing hands, trying to contain coughs, keeping distance etc - not everyone I know, but hopefully it'll limit/slow the spread.

Singapore was on 4 cases three weeks ago - www.gov.sg/article/covid-19-cases-in-singapore

(that was to @floatygoat)

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/15080016/

Thanks to the poster who suggested I "save my money for paracetamol" . I've got plenty of those in too thanks, though I'm also reluctant to reduce a fever unless necessary, as a high temperature is the way our bodies fight off infections. By us constantly reducing them down we often prolong illness. As much as possible, if we catch this, I'm aiming to support our bodies to fight it off...hence me looking into other things that might help that .

So three weeks ago Singapore only had 3 confirmed cases and now has 67
But three weeks ago Australia had only 3 cases also, but now has only 14

So there is a different spread there. Obviously Singapore is far more densely populated than Australia so I'm guessing that's the reason.
I wonder where the UK fits ....

"Patients received 15 ml of elderberry or placebo syrup four times a day for 5 days, and recorded their symptoms using a visual analogue scale. Symptoms were relieved on average 4 days earlier and use of rescue medication was significantly less in those receiving elderberry extract compared with placebo. Elderberry extract seems to offer an efficient, safe and cost-effective treatment for influenza"

(Extract from study above - there are more online)

But France was ahead of us & their numbers haven’t increased at that rate.

France had its first case on 29th January.

So if doubling every 7.5 days, you'd have expected 2 cases by 6th Feb and 4 by 14th Feb.

They currently have 11 cases.

At least the people who were on the Westerdam cruise are happy

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-cambodia-passengers-idCAKBN20903T?taid=5e479bb781f8080001529e63&utmcampaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utmmmedium=trueAnthem&utmsource=twitter&utmmsource=reddit.com

Doubling in numbers every 7.5 days in the initial stages gives us maybe a month, 2 months till SHTF?

Yep - I hadn't looked at those specific numbers but that was my gut feel anyway TBH.

And I'm also like PP coming to the conclusion that while I will still do all the social distancing, hand washing, etc that it's going to be fairly unavoidable unless you're willing to take very extreme measures of isolating for possibly months (if I had underlying health issues I might consider this but otherwise I think I'll just assume I'm going to catch it).

I just hope that the demographics coming out of China re: severe cases hold up as the severe/critical cases in Japan have no discernible trends (across gender, age, health).

Australia has 3.1 people per square KM
Japan has 347 people per KM2
Singapore has 8,358 per KM2

UK has 274 per KM2

So on that basis Japan would be a better country to watch.

Tokyo has a population roughly the same as London (slightly smaller).