Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

IrisMarch sounds very unlikely to me. COVID-19 presents with no upper respiratory symptoms (eg runny nose, sneezing).

A dry cough, sore throat, and fever are your indicators - just keep an eye on your temperature but no need to panic at this stage!

but an expert on Sky News said the virus does present with runny nose and sneezing! aaaggh

Just a note on the face asks - N95 is the US name, they're called FFP3 here, or just P3. Not that you can get any anywhere so doesn't really matter! 😳

*masks, obviously

Placemarking

I saw a mention of Kruseaz pancake mix on another thread and ordered some off Amazon. It just arrived and wow. We're a family of 6 and can probably live off that alone for two weeks!

IrisMarch, I too have a dry cough since Monday and am feeling rather rough and tired with it. No fever though and I live a very quiet life in a village so no links to Brighton, London or China. I did wonder at one point though as this cough is reminding me so much of the one I had with Swine flu but it was accompanied by a high fever. On the other hand most colds go straight to my windpipe nowadays so very unlikely to be Covid-19!

Funnily enough @Sugarstealer some people's initial symptoms are stomach pains and diarrhea.

Thankyou floatygoat for the info on mixing bleach, that'll be useful

I've been making a list for a relative of effective options for disinfecting/sterilising. Money's a big issue so can't just go and buy a load of dettol wipes! So in case anyone finds it useful -

best:

60% ethanol (hand gels, rubbing alcohol, surgical spirit. Anything over 60% kills it, stronger isn't better)
0.5% hydrogen peroxide
0.1% sodium hypochlorite (bleach - CDC state 1 tablespoon bleach to 4 cups water)
works within 1 minute

less effective than above, but still effective:
0.05 - 0.2% benzalkonium chloride (active ingredient in many disinfectants including dettol, zoflora, and also the cheap supermarket-brand 30p bottles of amber disinfectant. Check back of bottle for the active ingredient.)
0.02% chlorhexadine digluconate (in some hand washes)

also:
troclosene sodium - baby sterilising tablets (milton or own-brand). Food-safe without rinsing. Takes 15 mins or per instructions on box
acetone (nail varnish remover) is likely to be effective
Milton sterilising fluid (also other brands of baby sterilising fluid which contain sodium hypochlorite) which is food-safe, no need to rinse. Works in 15 mins

(sources were CDC and various reputable medical/scientific organisations, I didn't keep the links unfortunately though I think a couple were from links posted on earlier parts of this thread)

Many thanks, I am not thinking this is very likely to be COVID19 more that it might be a bit inconsiderate to go to eg local cafe and sit there coughing and making people feel uncomfortable (given within a few miles of area Hove chap was out and about).

Fred 4! Oh my!

Hands out and tonics to the preppers anon group

Commenting to say thank you for the new thread and thank you to the posters giving info. I don't see the panic and hysteria on these threads that a few arseholes pop on to tell everyone off for. It's a bit dickheadish to pop on a thread about a specific topic and laugh or tell off the posters. I think if anything, these prepping threads have been the most measured threads and reduced anxiety for many as being prepared means they're better equipped to cope should illness strike.

I name changed in case this post outs me, i know at least one person will recognise me as I have friends following this and while I don't post much at all on MN , I've whinged about some of my family in the past

I have a chronic and degenerative lung condition that's had me admitted to hospital once and very close a few times, I get chest infections almost monthly and catching seasonal flu, colds and bugs is a worry in my day to day life, on the advice of my consultant theres a lot of things I'm told to do to avoid picking up any infections, people in extended family tell me I'm a fanny and I can see they get frustrated when I can't do certain things. My husband had cancer last year and doesn't have the full all clear and he's been met with offence when asking sick family members not to come to our house to visit because it's dangerous for me and for him.

If you have the privilege of good health for yourself and your family it's difficult to understand how it can feel worrying about the actions of others putting your or your family members life at risk. It really is that serious for some people and I don't think it's hysterical or irrational for those families with people who would be unlikely to fight this off or with family who couldn't fight this off to be planning ahead just in case.

I checked with DP (doctor) about getting the air filter mentioned on the previous thread. He said: “Virus is 80nm, ie 0.08 microns so all this would do is blow it around. 😬”

Totally get it and sympathise @ItsNotJustTheFuckingFlu.
DP will be frontline if this hits. And he’s got some lung issues himself.

Absolutely LOVE the user name @ItsNotJustTheFuckingFlu 😂
You should put a post on about steps you take to reduce coming into contact with viruses.
I have a immunocompromised son and imagine I do similar things to you but you may have some other ideas. Things I haven't considered. Like the other day, my son is in year one and I've only just considered that the fruit snack he gets at school is communal, they all grab out the bowl and they don't have to wash their hands before it!

Someone was asking earlier what to do in an emergency if you're not eligible for prescription only drugs like asthma inhalers, and I thought it might be helpful to mention that caffeine is a natural bronchodilator. In a dire emergency (say, if you're waiting for an ambulance and struggling to breathe) strong coffee can be used to open up the airways a bit in the same way that ventolin does. (It also speeds up your heart and raises your blood pressure though, so travel carefully.) Also inhaling steam, of course. For little ones who can't manage to do that safely over a bowl or pan, you can run a hot bath while you sit with them in the bathroom.

On a day off and going out shortly to get a few bits to have in stock. I’ve lived my whole adult life in a city and I think people forget what it’s like if you can’t just go to a shop (eg a temporary lockdown).

This is true but the doctors hate you saying that, it's as though they think one day you'll be furiously sucking on your ventolin and wondering whether to ring 999 or having a stiff coffee.

The Alex Sobel thing is interesting. He is following a very cautious self isolation policy - he hasn’t had symptoms, but it sounds like he must have had significant contact with the carrier at the conference. If he does test positive, will his close contacts have to self isolate? Because chances are he spent a couple of hours closely packed in with most MPs on Wednesday for PMQs.

Many thanks, I am not thinking this is very likely to be COVID19 more that it might be a bit inconsiderate to go to eg local cafe and sit there coughing and making people feel uncomfortable (given within a few miles of area Hove chap was out and about).

I think I would avoid going out in that situation, for the reason you say. It won't actually matter when you're there how sure you are that it's not the coronavirus, it'll still make people feel uncomfortable.

Also, if the coronavirus is coming to your area, or any area, then no one wants an ordinary cold as a sort of trailer for it! Not spreading whatever it is that you have got is a good reason for staying home in itself.

Slowing down the spread of this virus will need "being out and about with a respiratory infection" to be socially unacceptable - and I think it will get to the state where it is socially unacceptable pretty quickly.

Now in possession of a big fuck off fp3 mask and some smaller fp3 masks. Big mask was £23. Only two left on shelf now. Replacement filters are £11 a set. Lots of little masks on the shelf.

Plan: big mask in case of lockdown and one person needs to go out. Smaller masks in case children need to be transported too.

Whoever it was posting about Wick's freaked me out into going. Will be good for sanding down stuff if not.

Checking in. We’ve had another 9 cases announced in Singapore, bringing us up to 67. The biggest cluster is now the Grace Assembly Church, with 13 known cases. One of their affected branches is less than half a mile away from where I live, which I’m trying not to worry about!

Think I've got something like this in the attic...steam inhaler any good do you think?

Very true eeyoresmiles

chances are he spent a couple of hours closely packed in with most MPs on Wednesday for PMQs

It would be great if Boris Johnson had to self-isolate. I could do without seeing his smug face for a few weeks. Or better still put the whole of the Commons in a cheap hotel on the Wirral for a while.