Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

I think tracing the contacts probably provides useful data for analysing both how infectious and how serious the virus is. Because no one really trusts the China data, other countries need to gather as much accurate data as possible.

Thanks for the hand cream ideas Bamboo and Cyw .
I'm in the 'zone' , next to Worthing hospital and I work in Brighton.

How do they test for the virus? Blood test or mouth swab?

Swag and that's one of the potential issues, in that it might not pick up infections that are primarily in the lungs.

swabs!

I love the hemp cream that Holland and Barrett's sell.

@SilverHawk I can recommend O'Keefes working hands available from Amazon etc

https://www.wilko.com/en-uk/okeeffes-96g-working-hands-hand-cream/p/0421535?nst=0&gclid=CjwKCAiAp5nyBRABEiwApTwjXr17O8HWTUDB3ZVNKQzI6s0-jmMTKO51TqbmmqtY75L1CzHVBNH5RoCl98QAvDD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

mumof2 That looks good too, and easy to get.
Almost takes me back to the days of Swafega!

My DH works on an oil rig in the North Sea and in all honesty, I’m bricking it. They’re like a giant cesspit for germs. I’m concerned about him becoming unwell and also carrying something back home with him. Myself and 2 DC are asthmatic and prone to chest infections so my anxiety has kicked up a notch.

Have stocked up on food and various cleaning products and other essentials, but no masks and everywhere has sold out online as far as I can see.

I just want to keep us all at home until this blows over!

Does anyone else find the complete lack of understanding of care from people around them in real life really frustrating?
My bf thinks I need to see the GP because I am clearly unhinged with my concerns about this.
I asked him if the shit hit the fan, if he would stay with us (we dont live together) and he went off into a rant that I'm letting my anxiety/OCD get out of control.
I've prepped to accommodate his needs too.
Just feel frustrated that no one around me gets it or cares. At the end of the day, if it all comes to nothing, my house is more organized than it was before and the food is all stuff we will eat. Fed up of people insinuating that I'm mad.
Equally if things did get bad, my family would all be asking me for help because I was prepared. I find it completely frustrating!

I have a chesty cough and headache atm too but I think the hallmark of COVID-19 is a boiling temperature (in adults, children regularly have high temps even with a common cold) if we don't have that then it's just another winter bug.

Hubei update:

2,420 new cases
139 new deaths

No of people in serious and critical condition has risen from 9,638 to 10,152.

Total cases in Hubei now 54.406.

I don't have the updated number of recoveries yet (it was 3,900 yesterday)

high temperature is not a diagnostic requirement of COVID19, especially in the early stages.

pinkgin I am treated the same way by my family. I prepped for a no deal Brexit and similarly am prepping for this, again only with food/medicine/household goods that will be used eventually. I am treated like I’m going insane.

Givemeabreak my family have been really horrible to be about it. I was sat having s sensible conversation with my mum saying she should get a few bits in and that if it got bad to stay in and I would run her errands - shes had cancer multiple times and cfs. I even said she could come stay with me but she wont leave her prts which is understandable. My sister chipped in that I was being overly dramatic. I got the usual "it's no worse than flu" tripe and we ended up having an argument.

This may not amount to anything, but it has the potential to be awful! Why cant people see that?

These threads are really informative, thanks everyone

OYBBK - this looks like the latest advice on symptoms from PHE’s blog. Mind you, I wouldn’t put it past them to be slightly out of touch

I still don’t see how people seeing us stock up is anything other than sensible. It means less panic buying people when the time comes

Elderberry juice has been found to reduce the severity of a flu infection. Might be worth stocking up. Any other remedies that people recommend?

@Ibloodylovewomen I would spend your money on something more useful like paracetamol tbh

Vitamin D. We are all deficient in the winter anyway and it has been shown in clinical trials to reduce the severity and the length of ordinary flu (particularly for those with asthma). Ill try and dig out the study and post the link. Im taking 3000 iui a day at the moment and have my pre teen dc on 1000 iui.

Here it is

www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/02/170216110002.htm

Science News
Vitamin D protects against colds and flu, finds major global study

I always have two boxes lemsip typecflu max strength drinks in. I find if I have a heavy cold it helps me to decongest in the morning and helps me get off to sleep. I have had flu twice. If this is systematically like flu ( I'm still unsure as flu to me is joint pain, suddenly feeling very meh then fever for two days followed by weeks of extreme fatigue. Like cant lift your head off a pillow tierd). If that's true here then lots of soup to recover. But the symptoms dont sound like typical flu? In which case who knows.

I have started a backpack in case of emergency. Really focused my mind as a friends partner has been taken ill and admitted into hospital suddenly. It would be so less stressful in that situation have all my prescription meds etc in a bag ready to just add clothes.

I definitely feel less stressed doing these little things. All the aspects I can control, I have. The things I cant control I wont stress over. As said before, my son with ASD has extremely bad habits of licking things he shouldn't and rolling on the floor so in my case I wont buy masks. I'm washing my hands and have hand gel for out and about. But if it hits epidemic here I can only realistically ride it out. Our family dynamics mean I couldn't avoid it beyond what my son would bring in. So I don't worry about catching it. Just getting through it.

What ever people are comfortable with I guess. It feel better than doing nothing. I do get more worried as time goes on and I did have a small Brexit stash as well. Last year I also bought foil blankets for the car and always have a two litre bottle of water in the car. I will be laughing if we get snowed in if nothing else!

@Legoandloldolls I am starting to feel like we can't avoid catching it in any case due to how contagious the latest info shows it to be. I am starting to have thoughts that it's pointless to try and protect ourselves/families from getting it and as you say, just to prepare for when we do.

Male prepper in The Sun. He has a very comprehensive list, but has forgotten the first rule of preppers’ club...
www.thesun.co.uk/news/10957371/coronavirus-doomsday-prepper-emergency-supplies-fears-quarantine-family/amp/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebarweb&__twitter_impression=true