Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

The test is also not always accurate, reports of people in China having to be tested up to 4 times before they get a positive result.

Concerns that it is spreading undetected in Indonesia

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/02/14/indonesia-coronavirus/?utmsource=Adestra&utmmmedium=email&utmcampaign=Saturday%20News%20-%2020200215

Catholic public masses are going to be cancelled indefinitely in Singapore

https://www.reddit.com/r/ChinaFlu/comments/f3z4r2/publiccmassforrcatholicshereewillbeesuspended/

But if that is the case, why are they bothering to track down people who have been in contact with confirmed cases and quarantine people. It is pointless if there are twice as many people out there spreading it unchecked.

Meanwhile in the UK, Eucharistic Ministers (the bods that hand out Communion at Catholic Mass) are going to use hand sanitizer beforehand and wipe the cup inside and out between people 🙄. Fast track to St Peter presumably included with the alms.

I don't think things are quite as bad as that Channel 4 programme makes out.

They questioned frontline staff like nurses about the amount of PPE they have - they probably don't know that there are four warehouses of PPE and similar around the UK as part of planning for a flu pandemic.

@EducatingArti

Well the Govt official line is that they're still trying to contain it.

In reality though it's now more about delaying the spread...because the more it's delayed the better:

A) They get more time to make additional preparation for the expected demand on the NHS

B) They hope that it won't spread as much during Spring/Summer

C) The longer a major outbreak is delayed the longer they have to work on a vaccine and treatments

D) The more the spread is dragged out over months rather than sweeping through the easier to deal with the demand on the NHS.

Errr. Do not watch the movie Contagion if you already haven’t done so....

I watched it the other day and am now reading Station 11

So for example, I have been unwell this week with some kind of virus that I have taken to be a cold. I live in NW England do not near any confirmed cases and have not knowingly been in contact with anyone from East Asia. I used First Defence when I started getting symptoms and have taken cold tablets ( with decongestant as well as paracetamol) and have just ploughed on with working as I would do with any cold usually. I haven't been very snotty which I have put down to the medications but am now developing a cough which is fairly usual for me as I have asthma and things tend to go on my chest.
I work with children, several of whom have had colds over the last couple of weeks so I assumed that I caught it from one of them.
Should I be worried that I am spreading covid 19 unawares?

This should provide some interesting info.

The US are going to do random testing of any one with flu symptoms in five specific cities if they test negative for flu

Basically they are trying to find out if the experts are correct that there are people out there with CV.

www.nytimes.com/2020/02/14/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html

I don't think so...even though it could be spreading it would still be reasonably rare compared to all of the normal cold viruses that are out there.

It's much, much, much more likely that you just had a standard cold.

I don't think it's necessarily pointless to be trying to track down people - it may make a difference to the speed of spread across the country. Putting your hands up to the whole thing and everyone getting infected all at once is the worst case scenario as it puts everyone in need of the same acute health services at the same time. I think you probably want to be tracking down and isolating contacts for as long as you possibly can (I'm no epidemiologist though, that is just guesswork!).

They wouldn't test you for it anyway as there aren't enough tests to do it for everyone with cold symptoms, so you'd never know or be able to do anything about it.

Even with spreading I can't imagine there are more than a few hundred cases right now, so you'd have to be bloody unlucky.

It won't really make much difference to the spread of speed though if there are twice as many people spreading it unawares than get picked up.

I took so long writing that the question was already answered 10 mins ago! Funnily enough I am laid up with what I presume to be flu. Have never felt this ill with a cold, plus it included vomiting, and has now morphed into a chest infection. Hmm....

From 9:00 mins in he explains how contagious this virus is. Very!

@EducatingArti I'd tend to agree with you there but I'm not an expert.

Does anybody have any tips for hand cream? My hands are already cracking up into tiny paper cuts due to washing and gel use.
I can recommend Snowfire stick. It's thick, greasy and stinks but is okay at night.
Anything better?

Social distancing can slow the rate of spread of the virus by up to a third. So presumably other actions like contact tracing, hand sanitising, mask wearing, and travel reduction can all have an effect too. Every little helps. The only way the NHS can begin to cope is if we pace this.

Only an abstract....
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.05.20020750v2

And as for staff in the NHS being ready. I'm about as frontline as it gets (paramedic) I have dressed in/striped down from full PPE once and that was about 5 years ago. We have specialist teams who are well trained and rehearsed in wearing and working in PPE, but for the rest of us the first time will likely be the real thing if we do have a major outbreak.

Silverhawk I use body shop hemp hand cream. It’s v thick but soaks in quickly.

Does anybody have any tips for hand cream?
www.alpinetrek.co.uk/climbskin-climbskin-handcream-skin-care/?aid=b4fb5e9542414095581299e572210bcc&pid=10004&gclid=CjwKCAiAp5nyBRABEiwApTwjXkGlbBbxhF_pokEwlY_HwOMpBNtToNZ40tH0GQEfzlBop86OFIhWrRoCaBIQAvD_BwE&wt_mc=uk.pla.google_uk.393201547.25885630867.104604048787

I won 4 tubs and it is absolutely brilliant. Nearly down to the last tub, and didn't realise how much it costs until I googled it just now

Educating I commented on an earlier thread about similar symptoms. I’m 10 mins from bton. Many of my friends, family and colleagues have had these symptoms recently.

If I was feeling that way now then I would call 111 for advice.

I can’t believe that the York two and Mr Bton (who is linked to my workplace!) are the first few cases in the U.K.

Sleepwarrior and educatingarchie Similar here. Ds had a fever (39 degrees for days), a day of vomiting, a horrible cough, tiredness, laid up for much of the last week. Gp very unconcerned, said it was just viral. I then got the high temp, cough, exhaustion (and a weirdly swollen tongue!) and pretty short of breath, although that’s probably due to an underlying condition. Dh is East Asian but hasn’t been home for years so we can’t blame him It did idly cross my mind it could be Coronavirus, but it would have had to have spread pretty unnoticed for so many of us all around the country to have it. And if it has already spread enough to affect all of us with cold/flu symptoms then... we’re all still alive! That can only be a positive.

Apologies if that doesn’t make sense, still a bit feverish!