Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Our surgery has also suspended online bookings, it's purely so potential Covid19 patients don't attend, we have to triage everyone.

PHE and the CCG are responsible for getting us proper masks, so who knows when they will appear!

I'm extremely relieved it's half term too. Easier to control the children's hygiene when they are with me.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8005101/amp/Coronavirus-spreads-Egypt-country-confirms-foreigner-infected.html?__twitter_impression=true
Coronavirus spreads to Egypt as country confirms a 'foreigner' is now infected with the disease in Africa's first case

The Daily Mail

Ok have bought 2 masks per person of FFP3 type. Really wanted some full face respirators but just too expensive.

I'm presuming it's everywhere, they're only testing people with symptoms who have close links to a confirmed case/travel to China etc. Confirmed cases must be a drop in the ocean at this point. Still, it doesn't seem real til it's confirmed does it 👀

Thanks for the advice re the dentist I shall go armed with tissues and hand gel.

Has anyone ordered any latex gloves or goggles? I figure if it ever gets to the point a lot of people are wearing masks we may as well go the whole hog.

I don't plan to go out at all if things get so bad to need latex gloves.
I have 4 of the masks with filters and am going to keep them for emergencies only.
I'm prepping to not have to leave the house.

I've bought a pack of the FFP3 masks linked above. I have been buying paracetamol and ibuprofen for months for my brexit stash. However I get through a lot as well. I have multiple health problems and take about 7 drugs daily. I am nudging forward repeat prescriptions but there is a limit.

Just checking in to the new thread

I have got a bit muddled, are asthma inhalers a good or bad idea with COVID19 breathlessness?

I have bought P2 masks as advised by the Australian government. There was a massive rush of them a while ago because of the bushfire smoke too.

But if it really was everywhere, there wouldn't be much point in quarantining people and tracking down direct contacts would there? Why would they spend all that money if there was no point?

I don't think it's everywhere because surely we would be seeing cases of pneumonia spike?

Have got a few bits hidden away - DH laughed at my prepping, so he's not getting any of my chicken soup & lindor eggs!

I assume that at some point over the next year most of us are going to catch it, so I'm trying to anticipate how to handle that. Cold and flu medications, ready meals, vitamins etc. Figure its important to boost our immune system so hopefully we won't get it too seriously.

And if we can self-medicate at home, it frees up the hospital beds for those people who may need them more?

but ds and dh don't like cheese so I'm ok for protein but they will struggle.

I experimented with red lentils the other day, never eaten them before and neither have the DC. Cooked half a cup and mixed it with a tomato & courgette sauce for pasta. They wolfed it down! Even the refuse-to-eat-new-food one (with asd).

We're all stocked up. Can't do any more. Pointless worrying too much whilst school is still open...!

www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1242498/coronavirus-latest-uk-outbreak-spread-update-importing-risk-Europe/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Coronavirus latest: UK risk of importing virus cases is HIGHEST in Europe

They're estimating that only one in three infected people are being confirmed at the moment. The test is also not always accurate. A lot are incubating. Epidemiologists are predicting there will be clusters of cases of pneumonia popping up in the next few weeks in us, uk etc.

So when I say it's everywhere I mean it's incubating in a lot of people in most countries now. Maybe I'm taking the info the wrong way.

Just bought some alcohol swabs to clean my phone as recommended on here. Have been using normal wipes/spray but think it’s probably not great for the phone!

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/public-transport-protect-coronavirus-london-tube-bus-plane-taxi/

How to avoid public transport hotspots that could spread coronavirus

Public transport can be an ideal setting for respiratory diseases to spread and may even increase the risk in certain boroughs

Scientists have been planning for a pandemic for decades and transport hubs are widely regarded as infection hotspots, with virus transmission rates up to six times higher for those using public transport systems.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-11/how-deadly-is-coronavirus-fatality-rate

Researchers at Imperial College London have modeled the infection’s spread based on the number of confirmed cases and the flow of travelers in and out of Wuhan, China, before quarantines took effect. ...
The result was a case count between 1,000 and 9,7000 as of Jan. 18, a date when the official tallyy of infections was below 300. Uncertainties in the model resulted in a wide error range, but the true number of infected people was probably around 4,000, the team reported.

In any outbreak, disease severity data tend to skew high at firstt_, for the simple reason that the sickest patients are most noticeable....

Another complicating factor is that death rates for an infection can vary across the globe. Disparities in the quality of medical care are exacerbated in an outbreak, when people and resources are stretched to their limits.

“If you can’t contain the spread, all bets are off,” Del Rio said. “Two percent of China’s population — 28 million people — is still pretty darn high. And 2% of the world? That would be a disaster.”

www.channel4.com/news/coronavirus-is-britain-ready
Coronavirus: Is Britain Ready?

In an exclusive survey for tonight’s special programme on the response to the emerging cases in the UK, ‘Coronavirus: Is Britain Ready?’ Channel 4 News carried out an exclusive survey of over 500 front-line health workers.

96% of respondents told us they believe the NHS isn’t ready to deal with a major outbreak, with 93% saying that there isn’t enough protection for NHS staff on the front-line.

Asked whether they think the healthcare system can cope with what might be around the corner, 88% believe there aren’t adequate facilities such as isolation areas to cope with large numbers of suspected Coronavirus cases. Meanwhile 81% felt there has not been enough preparation for the Coronavirus.

One health worker, a GP who is pregnant, said she was “genuinely scared” by the current situation.

Another health worker told Channel 4 News: “patients get unreliable, inconsistent and potentially dangerous advice from 111. High risk patients are still being told to see their GP”.

Another says they have had “no briefing on masks” and had instead resorted to buying their own from a hardware store.

FFS. Preparedness should be state of the art by now. Mind you with Brexit preps, only very late discovering Dover was an important port and Chris Grayling chanting "I do believe in ferries" when booking a company with no actual ferries, one can hardly be surprised.

Are tou implying that it is already endemic in UK floatygoat? I'm not sure what you are saying. Do you think that if 9 people have been confirmed with the disease then there are a random 18 people out there already spreading it to others?

That's pretty much what the experts are implying.

That we only pick up 1 in 3 infections.

That they're expecting random cases to start popping up in the UK, US, etc in c. 2-4 weeks (which is what is happening in HK & Singapore now).

@EducatingArti yes.