Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Thanks for brightening my day with the best user name @ItsNotJustTheFuckingFlu

I've been shopping today the hygiene levels I encountered nearly made me sick trigger germ phobes girl in front of me wiped her runny nose then used the keypad for the shopping with the same hand !

I bought menthol crystals, surgical spirit. I had an order of milton, dettol and medicine from boots. The milton had leaked over everything but they could not replace as no stock locally to me. I ordered again online and received this:

We’re sorry inform you that we are unable to supply your items at the moment and so your order has been cancelled.

Scary times when you can't buy anything if anyone is finding shortages in shops can we share what is running out ?

SlayB At least we've all got the advantage of prepping early, so have those few extras in and can think of other options before possibly panic buying sets in.

Popped into Tescos earlier - I do my shopping on foot, so trying to keep cat food topped up. Someone somewhere has been buying all the high length bleach and they've had a run on Dettol wipes - I wonder why?

I've put my repeat medication request in earlier. Same for my husband.

I have a chronic lung condition so I'm booked to see the nurse next week to try to get steroids on standby, I'm not holding out much hope.

I have a home nebuliser but no ampules as they are prescription only and mine are very out of date.

I'd be much less anxious if I knew I had a stock to bridge the gap between managing at home and going off in an ambulance. But I fully expect it will be given to those that have symptoms, it will be the getting hold of it once i have symptoms that's the problem. Especially if i'm too ill to drive.

I'm going to ask as it was always given as a sensible precaution in days gone by.

I still can't work out if I'm being illogical and panicking slightly or if this is entirely sensible.

I've been blue lighted to A&E with poorly lungs in the past, and not with flu complications, it makes me nervous.

I've just come across this place which still has stock of masks: scionsupply.com/p/lightweight-valved-disposable-face-mask-ffp3-certified-respirator-suitable-for-coronavirus?fbclid=IwAR2Mh09HHlsuFNrg6Wp99NSQTaS86tNlyPQ3HhkOPytQDvBn1vPZb4ZKZJw

You can get a lot of steam by leaving the lid of the fecking kettle off. 1.1L of water boiled away, fog on the top two foot of the ceiling and raining in the kitchen...

This is the how not to way of doing steam.

@MissusMaker and @EagleVisionSquirrelWork thanks for the info. I am rather stressed about my wee 5 month old getting this and I really feel for those who are immunocompromised or have loved ones that are. It's awful the way people are dismissing this as "only underlying health conditions or over 60s (hardly over the hill) will die" - the fuckers think that's ok then do they?

One of my dc has a dentist appointment on Tuesday and I don't know whether to cancel. My 5 month old has to come everywhere with us as I am ebf her and she's never had a bottle or anything.

I am going to order some follow on milk and a sippy cup in case I get this flu quite badly and can't breastfeed her. I'm not immunocompromised and in my 30s but otherwise healthy people seem to have got this, that whistleblower doctor was only 32.

*by got this, I mean suffered quite badly from it as opposed to mild symptoms

Thanks for the tips using steam and coffee.

I don't know if anyone will find this useful but a Chinese National posted this on Reddit.

Also, someone from hong Kong said that masks, hand gel, latex gloves, goggles, sanitary pads/tampons, nappies, clinical wipes were the first things to run out in shops/online.

Are people over 60 considered elderly now then? Have to declare an interest, I’m mid-sixties but no particular health conditions and I don’t tend to catch stuff (so far).

If over 60 is elderly, it’s rather rude of the government to have raised the state pension age to 67.

I don't have any official sources yet but twitter is saying the Egyptian health minister has just confirmed their first case.

Duckyneedsaclean I got an enormous sack of the pancake mix too!

Also a word of caution about using bleach/zoflora etc if it’s not your normal habit to do so - sometimes these can cause asthma flare ups so be careful! Zoflora is the very work of the devil in my opinion and causes me shortness of breath even in small quantities.

It will be interesting to see if this virus swings around whether it leads to changes in culture.

I saw a thread on another forum yesterday where a Norwegian was saying they're brought up to cough into their sleeves and never their hands which is seen as quite uncouth.

My eyes have definitely been opened on this thread as to how I could make things better for immune compromised people. I've always coughed into my hand and would then do whatever (grab tube pole, use ATM, etc) without thinking about it.

From now on I will be carrying tissues to cough into or will cough into my sleeve and use hand gels - not for me, but to stop me spreading germs around to other people.

The Egyptian case is official. Confirmed by Sky news Africa. It's the first reported case on the continent.

I sincerely hope so mojo. It will make my life a hell of a lot easier. It always shocks me when out in public, how unaware of passing on germs people actually are.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-51493492

growing up we were always taught to cough into the crook of our elbow.

Has anyone bought a UV lamp obviously bigger than the phone soap ones ?

Did someone mention air purifier don't work does this include HEPA filters ones ? Also how about the misting ones like this www.landyschemist.com/vicks-warm-mist-humidifier-vh845

I caught DH earlier leaving the bloody toilet without washing his hands though (grim) so have somewhat identified our weak link

(not envy)

Maybe I need to start clicker training him now...

I would not be cancelling dentists appointments at the moment. Much better to nip any teeth issues in the bud in case its hard to get an appointment later.

So I've just checked Wickes and they have an FFP3 mask in stock.

The replacement filters are £11 for 2 though

Presumably it would need a new filter each time it was used?

Are they available anywhere else for less money?

From STV on twitter:
A crew member on a North sea platform is to be tested for coronavirus. The worker on the Tern Alpha platform recently returned from Thailand. The individual is being kept in isolation as a precaution. They will remain separated until test results are known.

I had a beautiful few minutes of bliss imagining MPs being in quarantine for two weeks.

Ahhh. not wishing illness on anyone just would like to hear less of the incompetent baffoons.