Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Yes they are.

It’s scary enough for anyone on prescription drugs, but for those who their lives (or children’s lives) depend on them, it must be terrifying.

I would like to think this would make the govt realise how overly dependent we are on China - but I expect that’s wishful thinking

It’s worth keep asking for more in advance, but apart from all the usual reasons they don’t, I guess they’re going to want to share what they do have as fairly as possible.

Tunbridge please try not to go down too many "what if?" Steps. I think it doing the rounds year after year is close to zero. Imperial found a vaccine within a few days. Its just the nature of medicine that it cant be released without strict testing.

Its been a long time since my degree but at a high level a virus is "like" a living creature. All 'life'wants to replicate. You need a indefinite pool of hosts if your virus to 'live' so it's not in a virus benefit to be fatal. There will be vaccine soon enough. Hopefully we can hold its spread until it's gone through clinical trials.

No one can say for sure but I'm preparing for a situation like my family getting noro all at once. In this scenario I dont want to go near a shop for a month.

I also guess that if it spreads before a vaccine is found we will see a crisis in refugee camps and the third world. I think that is the unsaid worry. That would be a humanitarian disaster due to the nature of crowded dirty conditions. When it was starting in China, people was caught off guard with no idea what I was until it was spreading. We arent in that situation now. Science is doing things in hours that was total unknown in China at the start.

If you can, take comfort that some some very clever people, the best across the world are totally invested in this right now.

Diamond Princess pasengers have disembarked into a crowd of journalists, got into taxis to travel home. (BBC midnight news)

UK Australia Canada and USA are imposing another 14 day quarantine.

Iran: it is thought that there are another 25 in quarantine (BBC midnight news)

Good news that extra quarantine is going to be imposed here.

14 days from today: 4th /5th March. lets hope that the virus has not been passed on to journalists,taxi drivers,or aeroplane passengers

It will be interesting to see how quarantine works with possibly infectious group. If it spreads within the group. Worth studying to give more information.

S. Korea has also become a front runner in the local centre of infection stakes as they have had 27 new cases_and 87%. Increase

I've been watching Sky News tonight blackeyedsusan and was shocked to see all the journalists surrounding passengers. Even more schooled to see one of the passengers didn't even have his mask on correctly. The bit that should be on the bridge of the nose is almost underneath his.

Attached photo from sky news.

That is shocking! I’ve just read that someone from the princess has died from the virus but it was on the daily mail so not sure it’s reliable

Two people are being reported as dead from the DP now...

BBC says two DP passengers have died

87 year old man and 84 year old woman, both Japanese and with underlying conditions who were taken off the ship last week.

I’m glad to hear that the UK passengers are going to be quarantined even though only those testing negative are allowed to travel. Seems only sensible in view of the state of cross infection measures reported on the ship.

Sadly there are another 26 in serious/critical condition so I'm not sure they will be the last deaths.

Unfortunately the rates of serious/critical/deaths on the ship don’t tell us much due to the situation on there and the fact that those people have been subjected to those conditions for an extended period of time.

Interesting article about how Singapore is dealing with the outbreak

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-singapore-analysis/why-singapores-admired-virus-playbook-cant-be-replicated-idUSKBN20E0I4?utmmedium=Social&utmmsource=twitter&utmsource=reddit.com

Thank you for all your efforts here @wheresmymojo .

Gives me something to do while unemployed beyond Netflix binges

Some more information on potential medication and vitamin shortages...

This one is worth reading from a prepping perspective as it names specific items that India will stop exporting.

theprint.in/health/india-to-curb-export-of-antibiotics-vitamins-as-coronavirus-crisis-hits-supplies-from-china/368229/

I know this thread is for preppers and i dont judge any of you for doing it. i just find this whole corona-virus thing odd.. back in 2009 swine flu infected over 1 million people in the USA in 2 months and obviously nearly 500 died from it in the UK alone. This virus seems far less transmittable and is moving at a much slower rate but the hysteria that the media have created seems crazy.

There was no way near this much panic with swine flu and im just curious as to why people are so much more worried about this one compared to previous viruses.

I hope you are taking good care of yourself emotionally too. I'm guessing you are because you seem like a sensible person.
Emotional prepping is also really important. I might have all the physical preps in the world but I have to catch myself getting annoyed at something unexpected that rocks up. I have to tell myself- "you're supposed to be a bloody prepper. Unexpected shit is what you should be able to cope with ".
I also think it's important to still laugh like a drain at stuff. Hope people get chance to do that with all this depressing news that's around.
Best wishes.

@amd4578 I think people are worried about something previously unknown to science that appears very contagious. We all know about getting colds but this seems to have slightly harsher symptoms that are potentially serious in some people. And initial attempts to shut down information about it haven't help.

There was no way near this much panic with swine flu and im just curious as to why people are so much more worried about this one compared to previous viruses.

You are assuming that there is some sort of proportional relation between the scale of the media response and the scale of the response from the individual preppers here.

I am from a family where chronic respiratory illnesses are rife. I was raised in a family where flu was never preceded by the word just. I can assure you I was very much concerned when swine flu took off.

There was no way near this much panic with swine flu and im just curious as to why people are so much more worried about this one compared to previous viruses.

Well this isn't a flu virus and they don't have any antivirals to treat it. It's completely new and nobody knows the actual CFR or transmission rate.

As I have MS, I spend every winter trying not to worry about the norovirus- I've had it twice and it was devastating.
I also live in an area without measles herd immunity. I've never had measles. It could kill me if I contract it. So I try to be watchful and sensible and live my life as cheerfully as I can.Doesn't mean I'm going to ignore it. Or not take sensible steps to prepare for it should it hit my household in some way.

Also while it is difficult to gauge mortality rates during an epidemic COVID is estimated to be much more serious than swine flu.

Roughly 15-20% of COVID infections require hospitalisation and it spreads as easily as swine flu.

You can see how easily hospitals would be overwhelmed which has a knock on impact for all other conditions requiring hospitalisation.

I agree that the fact it has come from China and the unreliability of information has created the Hysteria around the virus.

I am not a conspiracy theorist but the government and the royal family will be happy for this virus to steal all the headlines so Brexit and the falling apart of the royal family gets less attention while this is all happening.