Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Ok. I’m officially scared now 🥺

Ok this is getting a bit out of hand. Yes we have reason to be worried but I think talking about the end of humanity is a little premature

I wonder if one difference we have between us and China is our home delivery services. No idea what they are like in China, but I think it would be fabulously ironic if we were saved by Amazon and Walmart (Asda).

So is anyone else planning to grow food for the coming months? I’ve just bought a ton of seeds and seed potatoes (they need next to no space if you have a small garden). Spinach, carrots and lettuces don’t need a huge area either. A few pots and gro bags will help top up fresh veg supplies.

Yes you are right of course there will be some resistant to it who cope with the virus. Apparently there is an article in new scientist saying it may just fizzle out. So obviously we don’t really know which way it will go just yet. I guess it’s a matter of containing the spread until vaccine available. I just wonder what the authority’s actually know about the virus. They must know so much more than we are told

Good idea on the potatoes

So is anyone else planning to grow food for the coming months?

Fuck no, I can't reliably grow cress.

The thing about dengue is there’s more than one strain. You get one, it’s bad. You get another, it triggers immunity but there isn’t enough immunity as the strains are different, so it end up being far worse.
There’s absolutely no suggestion that this is the case with CoVID-19.

So is anyone else planning to grow food for the coming months?
I grow a decent amount of our veg as we're crofters, lots of stuff is surprisingly easy and doesn't require much space, you can grow carrots in a plastic trug on a balcony or lettuce leaves on a windowsill.

I can't keep plastic flowers alive. My cats ate them.

Does anyone have a link to the reportedly closed Basingstoke Surgery?

We are in the area.

@AvocadoOwl

May start to see empty shelves in the next 60-90 days due to disruptions in supply chains as even where products are not made in China a lot of materials are sourced from China.

This is for the US but I assume applies in a similar fashion here...

My understanding is that we're not talking about food but more about consumer goods, clothes, etc.

eu.detroitnews.com/story/business/2020/02/12/target-best-buy-coronavirus-supply-disruption/41223461/

@AmelieTaylor

It's in Chineham (I saw it on a local FB Group that I'm in), will dig out the link

@AmelieTaylor

From Chineham Community Noticeboard Group

"THE CHINEHAM MEDICAL PRACTICE IS TEMPORARILY CLOSED TODAY TO ENABLE A DEEP CLEAN TO PART OF THE BUILDING AS A ROUTINE PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE.

The Practice will reopen on 20 February 2020 and patients will be advised if their appointment needs to be rearranged.

We apologise for any inconvenience this may cause. Safety is our priority and we have taken advice about this course of action from Public Health England as a precaution to ensure that there is no risk to staff and patients."

Lots of these have happened all over due to suspected cases presenting at the GP (despite being told not to and their being notices up everywhere).

None of them have been confirmed cases so hopefully nothing to worry about...

@YoursTunbridgeWells I really recommend you watch the GMC webcast if you can and also consider a meditation app to try to get your catastrophising under a bit more control. Clearly we are in a worrying situation but thinking about the end of humanity isn't rational at this point.

Sorry, going back to the discussion about it being worse on reinfection.

There's no evidence to show this is the case for COVID at this point. The paper was written in December 2019 before COVID was recognised.

It's just one theory without any studies/research/facts.

It's not a theory being validated by any other experts as something to be concerned about so I really wouldn't lose sleep over it or even worry about it being the case.

If it starts to gain any credibility I shall let people know but for now it's best considered fringe at best.

THank you for the info @wheresmymojo, I found it from that.

Cross posted with your other posts. Thanks again

Thanks wheresmymojo it would be a very unique thing for a virus if it was the case that reinfection was worse. It must be very unusual for a virus to behave this way. Usually antibodies help.

Also, people who caught and recovered from the Spanish flu in the first wave of the pandemic received immunity from the more deadly second wave when the virus had mutated. I believe that catching covid once would provide some immunity in the same way if it mutates.

@NaturalBornWoman thank you. Sadly I don’t believe the GMC have a clue either. But I do get it’s catastrophising. It’s making me suicidal daily now.

@YoursTunbridgeWells

I'm sorry that this whole thing is causing you to feel that way, I've been suicidal many times before (unrelated to health - I have bipolar disorder).

Do you think it would help to limit your focus on it?

Perhaps getting one quick update a day and no more than that?

There is a tipping point at which more focus and information is just stressful and doesn't actually help you to prepare any more than you already have

I've had a mild cough for about three weeks. It's not slowed me down at all, but I feel quite tight chested today. I know I need to let my gp surgery know as it can be a side effect of my medication that I'm supposed to report. But I'm feeling quite loathe to in case I end up being on local social media as a potential case.

I have rubbish timing with my posts sometimes!

There has never been a virus that has gone round and round getting worse and worse with each reinfection in human history. I suspect it will eventually end up being like the mild corona viruses that cause the common cold once it becomes endemic. It could just be a bit of a rough ride until we get to that point.