Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Oh @YoursTunbridgeWells
It would be better for you to not read the post very often. As a pp says, maybe once a day.
These are all "what ifs". The odds are that we won't get a large amount of cases here. People are just discussing worst case scenario.
I hate to think of it upsetting you so much.
Preppers are supposed to prepare, not panic and you have definitely flipped to panic mode. Catastrophising won't do you any good, it will make you feel ill.

I agree @OhYouBadKitten that is what has happened with most viruses. In the future it will have a vaccine which may have to be given annually. It's just this pain barrier while its new and science has to "work it out".

YoursTunbridgeWells

Hey @YoursTunbridgeWells. I'm finding it comforting to know there have been no new cases here this week. Also, looking at it rationally, the number of cases in Wuhan represents a tiny proportion of its population; serious cases and deaths even less. I'm not trying to minimise the suffering or threat, but being consciously optimistic. Might those thoughts help to allay your fears?

So sorry TunbridgeWells.

Also added to the AIBU thread - looks like China is reverting to positive test results only in reporting new cases.

yes we are preparing for worst case scenario here. But often these predictions don’t play out . I would like to think the various authority’s - world health organisation etc do have a plan of sorts. We just don’t hear what it is

If this spreads around the world and gets to the uk properly what kind of effect do we think it will have on day to day life?
From what I have been reading most cases are mild BUT what I have seen about Wuhan seems to say that even with MOST cases being mild it is still causing chaos?

I am trying to get my head around something like this actually happening here!

@YoursTunbridgeWells do you have the contact details for your local crisis team? You are describing an acute episode of mental ill health and you need professional support.

Germany will routinely test some flu samples for COVID from next week.

So that should also hopefully give some comfort that there is no spreading yet

@YoursTunbridgeWells

I’m sorry you’re feeling like that 🌷

Do you have done you can talk to & get a hug from?

I hope you can find a way out of the spiral you seem to be in.

I’m going to repost @OhYouBadBadKitten s post.

There has never been a virus that has gone round and round getting worse and worse with each reinfection in human history. I suspect it will eventually end up being like the mild corona viruses that cause the common cold once it becomes endemic. It could just be a bit of a rough ride until we get to that point

@OhYouBadBadKitten.

I’m sure as long as you report it as a possible side effect of x medication and don’t call up saying you’re pretty sure you have CV you’ll be fine!

You NEED to do it so they can check you out & maybe adjust your medication. Go on, be a good kitten!

YoursTunbridgeWells, there is a coronavirus positive mental health thread somewhere on MN which might be an alternative to this thread? And yes, if you do feel suicidal please call for help. I am prone to anxiety and have had to stop myself from checking news/MN at times as sometimes it just feeds it. Being prepared is good of course but it was taking over my life last weekend and I ended up run down and then I'll. Look after yourself

@HasaDigaEebowai @CrapTVAddict
Current shortages of contraceptive and HRT mentioned upthread may actually be related to China. There are numerous factors involved but apparently, one of them is changes in regulation of the chemical industry in China leading to reduced medication and raw materials.
This is not going to help and I am concerned we will see more shortages soon

I know that quite a few people lurk on this thread that are anxious about COVID.

What you have to remember is that as Preppers we scan for a reasonable worst case scenario so that we can prepare for that.

Take Brexit for example - a reasonable worst case scenario was No Deal and fairly significant disruption. That isn't what came to actually happen.

There is still a lot of debate about the replication rate and case fatality rate and no-one on this thread is an expert. There is also a reasonable best case scenario from the same facts.

Anyone anxious should be kind to themselves and give this thread a miss IMO, or take some of the actual prepping advice from it but not follow all the posts.

to all commenters and lurkers with anxiety, I know how horrible it is (I have it about non-health related things).

@YoursTunbridgeWells do come over to the mental health thread.
It is easy for this to get inside your head and for it to start colouring every part of your life.
Live this a little less. Check in once a day with virus news.
And please see your GP ASAP. You don’t have to live this way.

link

I have just enrolled in a Covid course done by the imperial college London
www.coursera.org/learn/covid-19 . It is free, you just have to enrol on the Coursera platform

Absolutely wheresmymojo. I looked at the positive mental health thread and was a bit shocked to see that a poster thought the number of posters here was significant. I post as I find it actually helps me stay positive, thinking about little actions I can take.

Just as a counterbalance though not wishing to dismiss anyone else's thoughts, I want to say am hopeful that this is now being contained or at least massively slowed and will likely get milder. But I don't get into a debate about it on here because I'm not a virologist let alone a doctor , just a reader of history and popular science.

Clearly I personally don't have a "prepper" approach, as I mentioned earlier we are more a two week larder household.
So I've got some extra food in in case we get a bad cold and don't want to go out much. And I've bought hand sanitizer for my husband to take on journeys.

I will also take away the importance of fit and healthy people practising good hygiene to reduce the cold and flu burden for everyone, every year.

Best wishes to all.

I feel more comforted that science has found three potential antiviral drugs that could be effective against Covid - I think someone up thread mentioned Chloroquine (ancient antimalarial), but two others are now being trialled on Covid patients in China and elsewhere (including one of Gilead's new antivirals, who lead the way in HIV and Hep C). Hopefully these trials will be successful and manufacturing can be expedited.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.zmescience.com/science/first-antiviral-drug-coronavirus-0423/amp/

Like all boards we can occasionally get people who get carried away but I think the prepper board is typically frequented by sensible types who like to keep up to date with what is going on and make sure that they are best placed to deal with what might be coming. Most people on here have advocated at most some hand gel, a couple of weeks of food, a few diy masks and sufficient cold and flu meds - basically preparing for maybe having to stay home for a couple of weeks to help control the spread of a virus.

I actually think the "positive" thread is a bit dangerous. It doesn't do anyone any good to read things that are just false. People need to take sensible precautions - that includes everyone.

My son is on a lot of medicine after his liver transplant. I wonder if there is way of checking where the ingredients come from? I know that they are provided in tablet form from Europe but I don't know about the raw materials.

28 people from the DP cruise are now in serious condition (up from 20 yesterday)

There is currently a piece on the Diamond Princess on R4 starting about 22.18

@ofwarren

I imagine it would be a very difficult thing to find out, if not impossible - because I believe the raw ingredients can come from several suppliers I’m not sure you could be certain you had the correct information

Not to mention that even if you found out it was all from China - what can you actually DO with information?

Personally I’d just be stocking as much as I could get them to give me in advance & getting repeats as soon as possible.

It’s a worry for sure 🌷

Yeah that's true @AmelieTaylor I couldn't change anything if it's made in china. I wish we could get an extra month ahead in medicine. They are so strict these days.