Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Apparently with the flour - any weevils or mites come in with the flour as tiny eggs (vom).

It's best to freeze the flour for a few days to kill any eggs (vom). After that it doesn't need to be stored in the freezer as anything in there (vom) will already be incapable of hatching (vom).

I will try to never think of this again or I'll end up not being able to use flour.

I'm not a prepper by nature but we've been making sure we have things like a massive number of toilet rolls and ingredients we can store for a while, in the event that we get sick. Loads of pulses, green veg in the freezer, flour, cans of stuff. Some of it is left over from Brexit prep. (Maybe I am a prepper.)

I'm not worried about high death tolls (it's clear that the number of cases overall is an unknown so 2% means very little right now) but I'm very worried about hospitals being overwhelmed and services/businesses being undermanned. Most of those people won't even be very ill, it'll be a precaution to stay at home. Just what we need economically when we've got Brexit in train.

@preponderings. I can confidently answer that ‘fucking soup again’ 🤣

Warning re UHT milk. The BBE date is actually relevant, unlike that for tins.

It might partly be just that the best before dates for milk are never that far ahead, so you can't go very far past them before you notice a big change. Tins have longer dates to start with and of course the things inside them are much more annihilated before sealing.

@Givemeabreakpls

Best wishes for your Dad’s op. I think that getting an op done now will be pretty safe from CV. Get him in & out as soon as possible!

Day 9 we are on normal food, no difference.
Day 39 starts to look more "interesting"..

This is only because we have two chest freezers

An interesting view of Singapore cases here including a chart that shows all the clusters and linked cases and how they are linked to each other...

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/wuhan-virus-singapore-confirmed-cases-coronavirus-12324270?cid=h3referrallinarticlelinks240820188cna

I always put flour in the freezer when I get it home from the supermarket as it will kill any possible weevils in there. I think they are fairly endemic in flour, even new stuff. I don't store it in the freezer for lack of space, but in sealed jars.

That works until you start buying 25kg bags of flour (my DH makes all our bread) 😀

Tbf though, we haven't yet had a problem with flour mites in the flour we are buying.

A little bit of insect egg protein won't harm us

I inherited the always buying in bulk and preparing meals from a combination of fresh, dried, tinned food from my mum and always stocking up when items are cheap rather than when they are needed so that some things are never out of stock. So I can tick a lot of proper boxes already.

We mostly have to top up on fresh stuff but I am going to check out what fresh stuff can be frozen - eg milk, butter, fruit etc. What should we sow now if we have space to get fresh veg etc?

As we live quite rurally there are frequent but short power cuts. I am going to buy powerbanks and non mains lighting. We can cook on the bbq which also has a burner ring. (I have been reading Patricia Highsmith lately and she often mentions cooking steak on the indoor fire in her depictions of 1950's dinner parties). Maybe someone has some good recipes for meals made on an open fire.

Proper = prepper

By day nine nothing would have changed in our house either. 4 kids so three freezers.

Day 39 and it would be uht milk, home made rolls with beans / soup. Dinner pasta with pesto. Not amazingly appealing but there would be enough to fill the kids up

If the shit does massively hit the fan, does anyone have any ideas how long gas and electricity are likely to remain unaffected? I'm not sure whether I need to prepare methods of cooking food that don't involve a hob, oven or microwave.

I have genuinely never, ever heard of people freezing flour!

I thought the bugs in it were an 'either they are or they aren't' situation. Not a 'leave it long enough and they'll hatch'. I bag it so a new pack can't contaminate the rest.

By day nine nothing would have changed in our house either.
Are you talking just main meal or all the meals?
We generally eat toast/bread or cereal for breakfast, so as long as we have milk we'd be ok.

Main meal nothing would have changed.

But the other meal we tend to eat salad, (occasionally soup in the winter) bread, cheese, cold meat and fruit or yoghurts. So by day 9 we'd be all out of that kind of food.

I am clearly a two week cupboard person rather than a genuine prepper!

I already know that bread, grated cheese and cooked meat can be frozen.

you can also freeze the cheese in blocks - it just goes a bit crumbly. My freezer is packed with cheese since Im addicted.

. My friends boiler has just died. She’s going over to my house with her DH & 3 kids to collect a couple of heaters we have in our loft and put the kids in the bath and put warm clothes on them, make some dinner etc. Which is all good. I’m just a bit that he’s going to see my prep stuff in the loft (loo rolls etc) and they’ll see stuff I don’t
Normally have (& lots of it) like soup, & tins of other things.

It’ll be interesting to see what she says... 🙄

@wheresmymojo
I’ve just watched John Campbell’s Video - twice. I can’t see the bit where he says about aspirin/ibruprofen. Does he actually talk about it or is it implied (if you understand what he’s saying)?!

Nothing at all would change for any meals by day nine. I by my salad leaves as a whole lettuce. They can last weeks sometimes. Any cucumber tomatoes can be randomly eaten the day of buying so nothing unusual not having them in.

We freeze milk and bread and have for many years. I normally have six boxes of cereal in too ( four young kids)

Unfortunately one son is very fussy due to SEN but he is 12 so if desperate enough hopefully he would eat the bread and cereal.

Cheese might be a issue on day 39 but again we have always got a massive block in the fridge.

I've come back to a thread full of weavils!! 😱. I don't have space in my freezer for all this flour. I'll have to risk it 😁. As for cooking without power we camp a bit so have a two ring camping stove with gas and also a gas bbq we can use. Worst case I suppose I could light the living fire and put a frying pan on that. I don't think it will come to that though. We're still at 9 cases aren't we so maybe, just maybe it'll all just go away?

A lot of fresh stuff can last quite well, like the whole lettuce - cos or romaine types, even longer for cabbage, potatoes, onions, apples, longest of all being squashes.

We freeze milk (in the plastic containers.) We also freeze butter because we buy it on offer.

Can you freeze blocks of cheddar?
I’ve got halloumi and sundried tomatoes frozen 😁 to add a bit of interest to the massive bag of pasta and endless tinned tomatoes that would largely be making up our diet by day 39
That and pancakes, cereal, rice and beans 😁