Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

@AvocadoOwl I've been thinking this too. The recovered v deaths rate has been consistently around 20% since this started. When you add in anecdotal evidence such as that young doctor dying, that film director and the rest of his family, I really don't imagine how it can only be 2%.

Where do you.get those Hasa?

So is that article saying that the death rate is actually 24%?

Another one here with a cough! My df is going into hospital this week for a big op; praying it’s not doing the rounds as for the type of op he’s having, CV would be an utter catastrophe. As it would for all of the patients in there. I’m hoping this virus is still an if, not when, thing for us all.

Where do you.get those Hasa?

I get mine from home bargains. They generally have a couple of months on them so they're a really good store cupboard/prep item

Death rate is 12.5% based on recovered vs death ratio. Not 24%.
Still pants

That's fluctuating though. Yesterday it was 15% and a day or two before that it was sitting for circa 20% for weeks.

Tried to order contraceptive patch today on repeat and got a message that all patches not just contraceptive ones have a 'manufacturing issue and will have to phone dr to arrange other medication'
Wonder if this is related to China being in lockdown and not making things we rely on

More likely to be linked to the HRT patch supply issue that has been around for the past year or so.

Blimey...Japan provide updates on new cases as and when they're confirmed (rather than once a day like China).

Several notifications today - they are up to 9 cases today now.

I sometimes use part baked rolls to fill any empty space in the freezer. That will inhibit mould growth.

(They get eaten regularly though in our house as student son visits regularly and bumps up consumption.)

The optimist in me likes to think that the death re recovered rates are skewed towards the death figures because realistically (esp in Hubei) testing people who have recovered won't be a priority. It's reasonable to assume that the overwhelming focus of attention there will be on the sick.

Also, we don't know what the criteria are for 'recovered'. A negative test? Discharge from hospital? Self reports? I have no idea. Figures from countries outside China will be far more reliable but it's too soon to judge final outcomes and the sample sizes are too small to draw solid conclusions currently.

I reckon it's going to be at least another month before we start to get a clearer picture.

I've still been using 2% as a rough mortality rate as:

• The article is absolutely correct that a CFR can only be calculated at the end of an epidemic or by taking a set sample of patients and then following them to conclusion and also that with the 4 week+ rough time from onset to death there is a big lag in deaths

• This is underlined by the 12,000 serious and critical cases, many of them (sadly) will also die plus more that aren't even serious/critical yet

However as Avocado says you then need to take into account that many epidemiologists think the actual infected numbers are massively higher than reported because there are many mild and asymptomatic cases that haven't been picked up. If you added them in it would swing the CFR back down again.

Basically it's anyone's guess at the moment.

The latest medical reports basically estimate the CFR to be between 0.1 - 4%

That makes a massive difference - 0.1% is similar to seasonal flu. 4% is a shocker.

I read (can't remember where) that the 'recovered' criteria is quite strict, two negative tests and symptom and fever free for 10 days.

Really interesting video from Dr. John today on the mechanics of fever and why taking aspirin / ibuprofen / etc isn't the best idea for adults with a healthy immune system

Warning re UHT milk. The BBE date is actually relevant, unlike that for tins. Maybe this is obvious to others, but I got a pack out of the cupboard which had been pushed to the back and therefore used out of order. It was a year out of date and completely useless.

For those with the part baked rolls. I very proudly baked my first loaf of bread since school the other day and it was lovely. Very easy to make so I think I'll stick with just bags of flour and sealed sachets of yeast as they last yonks. Gave my arms a good work out too.

Another of the evacuated Americans just tested positive for coronavirus. 15 of them now.

I discovered the uht milk thing for myself last year, not pleasant!
Re flour, you can freeze it if you have space. I have random bags in the bottom of my freezer.

@wheresmymojo Love his videos

Why would you need to freeze flour?

What about cream? Can you freeze that?

And, out of curiosity, imagine it's Day 9. What's your menu?

The last time I opened a pack of flour I hadn't used for ages it had weevils in

Actually I just looked them up and they were flour mites...still 🤢

wheresmymojo some protein for the meat eaters.....

Day 9.. its got to be sardines plus something..no one likes sardines here except me.

Probably the something will be random like a fruit scone by that stage!

I freeze flour when I get it if there is space. Endlessly rotating is food in my freezer.