Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Cooking on open fire someone said? Look no further than Swedish chef Niklas Ekstedt and his book Food from the Fire! Most recipies call for a fire pit (DH is building one in our garden) but I'm sure there are other ways. You also need a cast iron pan of some sort.

Yes, you can freeze cheddar, I wouldn't freeze it in one large block though. Divide it up into usable portions, perhaps some grated.

Were your sun-dried tomatoes at the end of their shelf life?

I think there's probably a lot of stuff that can be frozen that we have never considered freezing (because we assumed free supply) but which can be frozen (like cheese - who knew?).

Not much would change for me food wise, as already freeze a lot. My most recent freezer tip discovery is frozen whole chillis! Never used to like buy chillis as wouldnt get through the little fresh bags of 3 you can get at the supermarket, now I freeze them!

We have a fire pit (hole in the ground filled with logs) with a set up like cowboys to cook beans and sausages etc because DC liked to camp in the garden before this blew up.

I realised that I had become separated from the natural world when I was surprised that the food cooked and tasted good.

Seems obvious when you think of it. Freezing could be a simple response to food wastage aside from prepping.

Twitter reporting that a doctors surgery in Basingstoke has been closed for deep cleaning on PHE advice.

Well they announced their first two cases this morning but Iran has now announced their first death.

John Campbell video link above is a different (excellent) one.

The one about paracetamol etc is called Fever hope that link works.

That escalated quickly in Iran

On the freezing front - I thought butter could only be kept for say 3 months? Though I have some that is 4 months old and a 2.5 year old block of cheese ...... which will probably taste awful. Until recently I had a very old (10 years maybe) bag of game...muggins got confused and cooked in a stew. Was rather tough

Nasty rumours are circulating fuelled by this report jvi.asm.org/content/94/5/e02015-19#sec-6
Basically they are using this pre-COVID 19 but SARS/MERS Dec 19 report to say that:

You can get infected twice
First infection tends to be mild (being used by people to support why things are OK in the West)
Second infection very severe - with cytokine storms beacuse effectively a pathway is opened by the first infection which is then targetted the second time (I read it in 5 minutes so apologies if my understanding of ADEs is not up to scratch)

People on other forums are using this info to suggest that in China the reason for the 15-20% death rate is due to people being infected twice and it's the second infection that kills them. We have seen plenty of examples where it has been mild eg Mr Superspreader.

However, I thought they were using antibodies from recovered people to help the sick. Doesn't this fly in the face of the study or have I misunderstood the ADE mechanism?

Oh...don't know how I managed to link to the wrong video. Thanks @Neome - the Fever video is the one I meant to link to!

Bertolli, butter, cooked meat freezes.

Day 9, would have run out of milk. I can't get 9 days of milk in the fridge. A lot of the rest would be the same.

Day 39 ( 5 weeks 4 days) some things would be running out. We would still.have lots of beans, dried and tins, rice and pasta, mainly spaghetti as it is flat and fits in little spaces. I would expect the freezer to be emptying by then and probably run out of tinned veg. Hopefully I would have started some fresh veg in pots on the window sills. We live in a flat so only one fridge freezer and limited storage space.

A cheap face mask alternative if you can't get hold of the more expensive ones would be surgical masks, which we actually used at our teaching hospital during my placement in the infectious department.

Actually it seems that both cases in Iran are dead. Looks like they were only tested and confirmed post-mortem.

Statistically speaking you'd be expecting at least 100 infected people for 2 deaths...

They're refusing to say how many others (not dead) have it.

Erm...anyone taking bets on Iran being the surprise dark horse in the 'which country will be the next epicentre' competition?

I’m sure I read somewhere that you could freeze eggs? I’ve made up a batch of cupcakes for DS today and frozen half but my second freezer is also an under the counter one and full, so I’m lusting after a tall one.

Oh dear me. That is NOT good news about Iran! There are going to be loads with it I bet. Not a chance that the only 2 people to have it died.

Just read this on twitter:
#BREAKING
Report:
-At least four suspicious deaths in Greater Tehran prison. Other inmates told they have brain meningitis.
-Numerous prisoners quarantined in a room. Other inmates told they have influenza. Signs indicate a suspicious illness that could be the Coronavirus. t.co/m1A90n5W2F

Also...continuing to be cynical that Iran potentially has a local epidemic but that Indonesia, India and countries in Africa don't when they have much, much higher volumes of people moving between them and China.

I’m sure I read somewhere that you could freeze eggs?
I have chickens so always trying to use up eggs, I like doing a huge dish of chopped up veg and eggs in a deep dish, cooking it in the oven, so like an oven omelette, then slicing it up into squares and freezing them, good to have as like a breakfast patty!
This website gives a decent overview of freezing just the whole eggs or the yolk/whites www.egginfo.co.uk/egg-safety/storage-and-handling/can-you-freeze-eggs

Seems obvious when you think of it. Freezing could be a simple response to food wastage aside from prepping.

I've become much more conscious of food waste recently; I'm going to make sure it lasts.

I hope the prison has better infection control than onboard the DP.

They were very cheap here, but both types are currently sold out:

www.medisave.co.uk/face-mask-with-ties-50.html

They also have good first aid kits.

I read yesterday that you can freeze blended eggs but that yolks need freezing with either sugar or salt.

FFS. Mind you, the world is more likely to be ok with banning transport to and from Iran, seeing as a significant proportion of TROTW are not that thrilled with them anyway.

What are the odds though, that the only 2 cases (allegedly) that they have, both died? I would expect to see deaths when there are quite a few cases.