Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

The problem with this is that there are loads of people with coughs at the moment. Very few of them will even consider that it could be CV already circulating and will (quite reasonably) just go about their normal day to day routines.

Likewise we could have people with no symptoms wandering about.

That’s worrying. As PP said, there will be many people this time of year with coughs etc anyway; and also people who are stocking up anyway just in case. Hope the Chinese government are reasonable with all these “follow ups” and don’t just round them up or shut them in with no explanation or warning.

Just a random question if the virus does spread are people going to wear the masks indoors as well?

PHE were tracing 15 people on Steve's flight according to news reports and crew went into self isolation. Presumably the rest of the passengers would have been aware they had shared a flight. ( Queued up together etc?) They would be aware that if they had symptoms they were to contact 111.

The asymptomatic patients, do they eventually get symptoms or can they get it, and recover without having any symptoms?

Not indoors at home, although I do not have a plan yet.

Interesting that 100s of those still currently testing negative have been allowed off the Diamond Princess with no restrictions. Madness after a Japanese infection control expert visited the ship and said that the controls in place were completely inadequate!

I see South Korea and the US are refusing entry to anyone who has been on the ship, I wonder if we are taking a similar approach? I think anyone from the UK needs evacuating back and placed in quarantine here for a fortnight whether they are testing negative or not, just as the Americans have done.

We won't be wearing marks indoors. I don't think any of us are going to have a big enough supply of them to go to those lengths, even if we wanted to!

We have the grand total of 2 masks here. They'll be saved for a high risk outing such as having to take a trip to a hospital or something.

Personally I don't think we'll see widespread mask use in this country. That nhs email that someone posted yesterday suggested that they have a good supply of masks; I would imagine that they will keep hold of them for front line staff (rightly so) and the rest of us will have to scrabble around in DIY shops etc. Given that each mask is only good for a couple of hours there's no way we are all going to have enough to consistently use them correctly.

I saw someone wearing a mask in Liverpool on Monday. She was East Asian looking though and it may be just her way of dealing with an ordinary cold.

@EducatingArti , sadly that person might have been getting a lot of grief or aggro from people just because they were of East Asian origin. The mask was maybe a way to head that off. Pretty bloody dreadful state of affairs if that's the case. Let's hope I am wrong.

We only have 4 masks and are keeping them for if one of us has to leave the house for something. The plan is to not leave the house at all though, hence the prepping.

Worrying analysis of the figures

www.linkedin.com/pulse/regarding-most-recent-publication-novel-coronavirus-robert/?src=aff-lilpar&veh=aff_src.aff-lilpar_c.partners_pkw.10078_plc.Skimbit%20Ltd._pcrid.449670_learning&trk=aff_src.aff-lilpar_c.partners_pkw.10078_plc.Skimbit%20Ltd._pcrid.449670_learning&clickid=TtDQKF1TYxyOUFxwUx0Mo3EUUknVQX2ZF3PAVk0&irgwc=1

I see South Korea and the US are refusing entry to anyone who has been on the ship, I wonder if we are taking a similar approach? I think anyone from the UK needs evacuating back and placed in quarantine here for a fortnight whether they are testing negative or not, just as the Americans have done.

I hope we take the same approach but I can't see anything to indicate that and those passengers are currently being released and getting onto flights to disperse them all over the world.

South Korea looks like it might be about to take some sort of further lock down measures. They're trying to ensure their economic recovery isn't harmed too much and they've had 5 new cases this morning.

Another 79 cases on DP cruise = 621 now

Field report on the DP cruise

www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9407-covid-dp-fe-01.html

Thankfully I’m here and not in China then, they’d suspect me of running a field hospital 😖

Even china’s not going to be able to track down everyone who has bought over the counter cold/flu medicine. Maybe those who bought in bulk over the Internet.

I can’t work out what’s actually going on with David & Sally 🤷🏻‍♀️ I just hope that at some time we get a message to say they’re home & well

I think it might provide a real eye opener to us, the US & the rest of the world, just how much we rely on component parts & medicines etc from China. I think it would be wise (if very difficult & expensive) to go back to manufacturing more ourselves and BJ needs to rethink a few of his recent decisions

2 cases confirmed in Iran

This is what i love about this perppers forum bit of mn. It doesn't involve testosterone driven gun madness that is very apparent on male dominated US sites. Prepping seems much more down to earth here, food, hygiene, meds and utility prep such as water etc. Much more realistic imho.

Thank you to all those that have given their time to keep us updated as possible on the cv19 issue.

We should bring all the British citizens home that want to come home - IMO it’s the only decent thing to do. That’s what nearly all of us would want if they were our loved ones.

Then they should be treat like they have the virus and handled very carefully Quarantined PROPERLY for 21 days with several tests done.

Obviously they’ve been through hell already and if they were my lived ones I’d want to see them sooner, but I’d just be happy to have them back on UK soil

@CrapTVAddict

No, I don’t plan on wearing masks at home. Several reasons. The main one being, if it’s in the home it’s going to be virtually impossible not to get it, secondly I hate wearing masks (as do most people I’m sure) and any that are good enough to actually work
Are going to be very difficult to wear for any length of time, so the few we have will be reserved for any unavoidable trips outside. Which if I’ve prepped well should only be in case of a hospital trip being essential or possibly to help a friend or family member out in an emergency. and to be honest, that will be carefully considered before it happens.

Half term is frying my brain! But as soon as school is back I’ll be checking what I still need to get more of (not soup, that’s for sure🤣)

@wheresmymojo

Do they know how the two cases in Iran came about?

Worrying analysis of the figures

www.linkedin.com/pulse/regarding-most-recent-publication-novel-coronavirus-robert/?src=aff-lilpar&veh=affsrc.aff-lilparc.partnerspkw.10078plc.Skimbit%20Ltd.pcrid.449670learning&trk=affsrc.aff-lilparc.partnerspkw.10078plc.Skimbit%20Ltd.pcrid.449670learning&clickid=TtDQKF1TYxyOUFxwUx0Mo3EUUknVQX2ZF3PAVk0&irgwc=1

Before people get too panicked about this (I agree, it's a terrifying interpretation) it's worth considering that these figures might be skewed. Eg: a) the first figure of pre Dec 31st % deaths is only based on a small sample of 104 people, b) in the early stages (pre January 10th) I suspect that the majority of cases actually tested/reported then were serious ones in the first place- at that stage there wasn't widespread panic and masses of people being tested for more minor symptoms (as I understand it), and c) I think we would be seeing a sudden surge in deaths reported daily if it were the case that most deaths occur over a month after symptoms start.

I hope I'm right, the alternative doesn't bear thinking about.

Bold fail again

(First part of Post with link was quoting @SebandAlice)

Anyone who's bought Tesco part-baked rolls, I've just baked some 5 days past BBE and they're fine.

Pretty sure Steve flight was with easyJet as I saw on notice online saying they'd been made aware a person who travelled with them had positive on a named flight from that area. Saw it with looking, so very easy to find if you'd been on a flight that day.

Anyone who's bought Tesco part-baked rolls, I've just baked some 5 days past BBE and they're fine.

They're a bad prep though, they don't have a particularly long shelf life and they go mouldy. The shrink wrapped wraps last for much longer.