Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

I know nothing about Quinine except that it (possibly?) saved Sharpe’s wife against “The Fever” in one of the Sharpe series.

In Hong Kong you cant get toilet roll never mind masks!

Dyrne

Is there any point in getting the pneumonia vaccine at boots? It’s £65...

plantpot Are you in a vulnerable group (over 50, additional health conditions) and can you easily afford it? If yes to both, then it would not be a bad idea. But not something to worry yourself over if you're keeping a close eye on your budget.

My local Wicke's is out of masks. When I went last week they had a good stock of disposable masks, (newly on the shelf by the lack of dust?) of which I bought one each for DC and ex, leaving another 15 or so on the shelf.

I bought the children one of the DIY expensive masks each. Not questioned as I was also buying filler, sandpaper and goggles that go over prescription glasses so I can bloody see when I am doing DIY. ( Have goggles but they don't fit well over glasses. )

Funnily enough people are not keen on paying £23 per mask so they had some of those left. Spent my "pocket money" on them.

I now have a stockpile of sandpaper. Oh well, it doesn't go off.

It is difficult to decide what to buy, even if one can afford it or can divert the money from something else.

I decided to buy peace of mind in the form of two masks for the DC. £46 towards mental health and something generally useful as well.

I tried to look up the time line for Steve Walsh.

His contacts reach 14 days on Thursday 20th. The next two week deadline is 5th March, if for example some poor sod is walking round with a mild case. Is it two weeks after that pneumonia would become apparent?

What about the York cases and London case?

Looks like the Abels might have been a false alarm.

BatSegundo

• I could afford it if needed just don’t know if it’s the same pneumonia that you get after this virus? It’s confusing!

Poor people on DP cruise. I'd be climbing the walls!

Re the pneumonia jab, if your eligible you should be able to get it on the NHS. I get my flu jab free as I'm a carer for my ds. I didnt get it this year. My logic is to get it every other year as surely they dont detect hundreds of new strains each year. My mum always get both done as routine.

My local chemist had a sign up saying they are out of flu shots. Never seen that before. I wonder if people hope it might help and there was a run on it? I know it wont help with a novel virus. Plus the news about quinine and tonic - my logic feels sound with the gin supply 🙂

Getting a flu jab is not going to help with this virus, but will reduce the chances of people getting seasonal flu so less pressure on the NHS. I think that’s the reasoning, and I’ve read and listened to several virologists saying more or less that and advising people to take up flu jabs alongside good hand hygiene, cough etiquette, good nutrition etc.

The pneumonia jab is for bacterial pneumonia so would not help with the viral pneumonia that this virus can cause, but I read somewhere that it could be helpful in lessening the risk of co-infection.

Not a false alarm for the Abels after all. Seems they're currently still on the ship though. Can't imagine the stress and anxiety they must be going through.

Numbers in Japan keep ticking up by a few a day.

South Korea has had 15 new cases in one day, a new cluster.

The recovered stats have jumped up quite a bit over the past few days which is good.

Otherwise not much news overnight worth reporting...

Stats are now at:

Cases: 75,216
Deaths: 2,011
Recovered: 14,634

Currently infected: 58,571
Serious or critical: 12,057

Oh...Hong Kong has its second death (man in 70s)

Looking at the stats things have levelled out to an average 2,000 or so cases per day other than yesterday which was c.1800 (lowest since end of Jan).

Although it's quiet in Europe new cases elsewhere continue to grow (see chart).

This Reddit thread contains a link to a video of US officials discussing the impact of COVID.

At one point they say "US Officials: "90% of the raw materials [for n95 masks] come from China...80-90% of our healthcare products either are sourced for raw materials, active pharmaceutical ingredients, or finished products from India and China, and India gets its raw materials from China...We can't see them crash."

The thread raises a good point about national security.

In a way it shows how globalisation has provided for more peace as supply chains are so interlinked now you can't necessarily afford to go to war with, for example, China.

On the other hand it shows how insecure and unstable things could get if there ever were a war involving China or that made shipping across the Pacific difficult.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f6194n/usofficialss90offtherawwmaterialsforrn95/

wheresmymojo that’s interesting - I got the feeling a couple of weeks ago US politicians were pretty gleeful about the possible opportunity to grab back some economic power from China. Sounds like some sensible people have actually done some research and realised they’re so entwined and reliant on China it’s just not realistically feasible.

So another death in Hong Kong, and I just realised someone died in Taiwan as well at the weekend.
Haven't been any cases in Europe in a while now.
Japan and Singapore cases are getting steadily higher though.

Interesting info from China. This journalist is worth following IMO.

That would have been all us if we were in China. I stocked up over the weekend.

Head of one of the Wuhan hospitals died of the virus on Tuesday- Liu Zhiming. Latest figures show Hubei death rate at 2.9% and all other Chinese provinces at 0.4%

Signs in for having had a cough and bought meds bench.

Wow, can the Chinese government obtain a record of everything bought by anyone? Sounds awful.