Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

mcusercontent.com/73c3d4c9798efad92c827e730/files/42275345-de98-4246-9fd6-edd00c7e95ad/Coronavirus_Primary_Care_Briefing_18022020.pdf

From the NHS by email today

I'm feeling more and more optimistic with every day that there are no new cases in the UK (I'm assuming DP cruisers will be properly quarantined). With any luck this will pass and I won't have to do any food shopping for a month!

Mfronntge NHS link @AnnaMariaDreams just linked to

However, if someone calls NHS 111 and is assessed against the clinical pathway and they are not a possible COVID-19 case, for example they have not recently travelled to any of the affected areas or been in close contact with a confirmed case, NHS 111 would handle their call as normal. This may mean referring them to a GP, pharmacist or dental practice, based on patient need.
NHS Eng

How can they say anyone us not a possible COVID19 case? They can’t!

a case doesn’t need to be confirmed to be contagious & given how easy it is for people to get into the uk as long as they come via somewhere not on the list, anyone of us could be in a contact with someone contagious. FGS they’re worrying me more with their blasé attitude than the actual virus is.

David Abel’s son mentioned that he could hear his dad vomiting in the background when he was talking to his mum . He said he thought it was the shock. I bloody hope he’s mentioned the ‘shock’ to the doctors when he was telling them he’s asymptomatic.

Of course they can say someone isn’t a case. People will call with random symptoms worried about coronavirus when they don’t have the right symptoms and have no contact or travel to affected areas. They can’t treat everyone with mild health anxiety as if they’re infected.

@chipotle.

and they are not a possible COVID-19 case, for example they have not recently travelled to any of the affected areas or been in close contact with a confirmed case

No, they can’t say someone ISN’T a case because they haven’t travelled to the affected areas or been in contact with a confirmed case. They can say it’s unlikely but they can’t say they aren’t. People are coming into the UK who could be carrying it and they’re freely mixing - not self isolating.

Just because someone hasn’t been
‘Confirmed’ to have it, doesn’t mean they don’t.

The people mixing with SuperSteve caught it and he wasn’t a ‘confirmed case’ when they caught it.

A friend is a GP in Scotland (West coast) and has been told if a patient presents with symptoms / has been to China to leave the room immediately. Lock the door. Clear the waiting room. Call the authorities.

So, you cough on your GP you get locked in their room!

Presumably with your agreement. I am not sure how they can hold you hostage.

How can they say anyone us not a possible COVID19 case? They can’t!

I thought exactly that, Amelie. The choice of words is really revealing of the departure from logic that is starting to pervade our public discourse generally imo.

My point was that people will be calling who don’t have the symptoms and haven’t been in contact with a potential case. In that case, yes Brenda who has visited her GP every week for the past five years and now has a slight sniffle can in fact be told she doesn’t have COVID19. 111 will be getting loads of that type of call and they don’t need to be treated as potential cases.

They mean possible case, as in meets the formal case definition for possible case.

These are the only ones that currently wilualify for testing, because it simply not possible to test everyone who has a cold.

Qualify

I don't know if this has been mentioned yet but it looks like your common garden antimalarial is helpful to mitigate some of the worst symptoms of coronavirus

www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/17/c_138792545.htm

That’s interesting, FourTeaFallOut. I wonder if another antimalarial drug, quinine, would have any effect. According to this paper, www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3609296/ the mode of action of quinine is similar to chloroquine. I’m addicted to tonic water, which has quinine in it.

I'm not sure they still have much quinine in tonic water anymore, it's more of a gesture nowadays. But who the fuck knows, maybe it helps? Then all I need is for tea and hobnobs come to the prophylactic party and I reckon my whole family is safe.

My main concern is that we're relying on a single swab to confirm COVID when we already know that people can test negative a number of times and turn out to in fact have the virus.

DM is 74. She has the flu vaccine and the pneumonia vacc too. In the event she got cv would the vaccs help at all?

Apologies in advance for daft questions but if cv does become widespread here in the UK would we be better just riding it out at home or are people only planning on self imposed quarantine if they develop symptoms?

...but yes, otherwise a quiet day on the CV front.

I continue to hope for the best but I'm really not convinced. Once the experts say it looks like we've avoided it, I'll change my mind.

Otherwise the combination of long incubation periods, mild/asymptomatic cases, only testing people once, etc mean that I'm currently thinking we will have a quiet period while it is spreading before cases start popping up.

And outside of us Japan is quite concerning (and I'm still to be convinced that things aren't spreading in Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, etc).

I guess only time will tell.

Flu vaccine won't make any difference as it's a totally different type of virus.

I'm not familiar with the pneumonia vaccine.

Have just read up - the pneumonia vaccine is against a common type of bacterial pneumonia.

It won't protect against pneumonia caused by Coronavirus.

That being said some of the deaths have been caused by bacterial pneumonia on top of viral pneumonia and so I am guessing it could prevent that kind of secondary bacterial pneumonia which would help (but not stop her getting pneumonia altogether)

No, sorry, there's no reason to think any current vaccinations have any protection against this virus.

I have a chronic respiratory illness and my youngest is asthmatic. If there is a widespread outbreak we'll all hunker down. Tbh, I'm not sure we'd have much choice about it as I think the quarantine will be imposed by the government to slow the spread.

The main bits of news today are the start of wider economic impact.

Jaguar Landrover apparently has two weeks of parts from China and then they run out. The article I read wasn't clear exactly what scale impact that meant. Their orders are way down due to flatlined sales in China.

JCB said a couple of days ago they're stopping all overtime due to issues in their supply chain from China.

There are quite a few anecdotal stories on Reddit about layoffs happening or coming up for the same reason.

The pneumococcal vaccine probably is helpful. It protects against the most common cause of pneumonia secondary to viral respiratory infection.

Good news though is that Nanjing, a major city outside Hubei, is easing restrictions after 2 days with no new cases.

So one to watch to see if, fingers crossed, the numbers remain stable as they ease off the lockdown.

Seems a bit odd to me that they'd ease restrictions so soon, surely a drop shows they are working? It only takes one person to infect a load others and they'll be back to where they started?

I went to Wickes today to get some more FFP3 masks. The person on the till said to me, “what do you want all these for then? It’s not for that virus is it?” I said it might be. He rolled his eyes a bit and said, “well, it’s not here is it?” I said I was worried in case it becomes an epidemic here and he said, “do you really think it will?”. Then he told me he thought I was buying them to send abroad as the last two lots of stock were bought outright by Japanese people to send to relatives in Japan who could no longer get hold of them anywhere. I thought it was quite worrying if people in Japan are already at the stage where masks are no longer obtainable.