Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

The part in that Argus article about the self-isolating healthcare workers being told to return to work, apparently without having even been tested! It's certainly one way to avoid our total number of cases going up - just don't test people who might have it!

It's a good thing you can't have coronavirus and be infectious with mild or no symptoms .... oh, hang on ....

2% dead doesn't comfort me much tbh. My mum has had phenomena twice and 76. She is a contacurous old bugger but she is my mum. I dont want her dying on a hospital trolley. When she pops off you hope for unexpected death in her sleep or heart attack etc. What's the chance of there being care for her in a UK epidemic that's widespread? My local hospital is one of the better UK ones, but they still go on code black regularly I the winter. My mums local hospital is almost 50:50 some days you will contract MRSA in there.

I'm not panicked, I fully expect to get it at some point, but I'm not reassured that no one I know and love is going to become very ill.

It's one thing getting very ill and needing hospital from accident or emergency but I cant imagine epidemic thrown in will be fun. I know at least one cancer patient who I think this would be fatal.

On that note I'm planning on a brisk trip to the park before the next downpour or storm.

Still need to think about chocolate and wine! The stash is being hit hard over half term ( makes note to ration during a possible self isolation or a months worth of food will be gone in a week and the kids will be very well fed!)

I'm going to treat any lockdown as an opportunity to go told turkey on the booze 😆

I have an actual prepper question that doesn't involve gin or lindor eggs.

For various reasons, we get through a lot of water in this house. I reckon I'd last about 4 hours without water, and the thought of being without a clean, safe supply does worry me.

But even the places on lockdown in China appear to still have electricity & water don't they? And even some food deliveries? Presumably if the SHTF, utilities, water, energy would still continue if possible (isn't a lot of it automated?) If 60% of the population catches this over the next year there would still be just about enough staff at any one time to keep essential services running?

I'm reluctant to buy loads of bottled water (storage space, and also the environmental impact) but don't want to waste money on water treatments which we're unlikely to use.

Maybe gin would be a good idea after all 😃

Hmmm, whilst that's a noble idea I think the reality would be very different. I'm ok though, DH has just ordered me two crates of wine

There are still food deliveries happening in China and one person in each family is allowed out every three days to fetch food.

Our country doesn't run like that though..

I have read somewhere (possibly something like World War Z rather than proper information) that if you have notification the water is about to go off, fill the bath immediately so you have a back up. (Not in case you want a bath just for general usage).

Rain butt and life straws may be more environmentally friendly and less space taking up than bottled water?

I believe there are problems with the drinking water supply in Wuhan now but I don't know if that's tap or bottled. I have some cheap 2l bottles but like you I don't want to go overboard on the storage and it's not something I'd use anyway.

Water purification tablets are cheapish and small. Also useful for water cuts or contamination. Eg flooding, leaks.

Electricity cuts can happen any time anyway. Last summer a big chunk of England got a power cut due to a lightning strike.

We ended up with no water for 3 weeks when there was a cryptosporidium outbreak in the water supply in Lancashire and it was an absolute nightmare! We were fortunate because we got deliveries of bottled water every few days from United utilities as my son needed it with his medical condition. When you have no water, you realise how much you actually use. We didn't bathe, it was just strip washes and we hand washed clothes that we needed. Toilets were ok because they didn't turn off the contaminated supply.
There is no way of storing enough bottled water to last a family for more than a few weeks. It takes up so much space.
You would need to get sterilising tablets and life straws etc, to enable you to use other sources of water.
One thing I did think when I saw everyone scrabbling round for water in the supermarkets was why everyone left the soft drinks? Surely a drink is a drink when water is in short supply?

I heard a British guy in Wuhan being interviewed on the radio (before the first evacuation flight so this is a couple of weeks ago now) and he was expressing concern that they were running short on water and saying he would have to go outside for some. I'm not sure whether they have safe drinking water directly from taps in China?

We do though and so the likelihood is that in the event of serious epidemic in the UK, everything possible would be done to keep the essentials like power and water running.

Since I generally like to be prepared I have a couple of large 25l food grade jerry cans which are always full of water and get refilled (from the tap) every couple of months.

I think David,quite rightly after the last two weeks isn't in a positive frame of mind. Neither would I be if I was him. Of course his mind in wondering down a rabbit hole of doom. Look at effects of solitary confinement on MH. Poor passengers

Re normality bias. I plan, I worry. Dh lives in the moment thinking nothing through. Its possibly a good ( if frustrating ) combination

webuiltciscityonsexistroles, are you sure that wasn't a scene from The Road?

I have read somewhere (possibly something like World War Z rather than proper information)

I love this

The Brighton Argus article is very concerning, but at the same time it doesn't surprise me at all. This is the kind of scenario I think everyone on this thread has been keeping in mind. (There's a hilarious comment beneath the story that hopefully will finally lay to rest the idea that we are the conspiracy theorists btw.)

That complete lack of reporting is so weird!!!! Trying not to read too much into it- still undecided about whether to wear a mask next week on the train/tube or not...

The last time the water went off here it was due to a power cut from storms. I only have 4 2l bottles of cheap stuff in. If our power goes out ds is disabled so we in theory would be priority, or I would drive to another area to buy it. I have water purification tablets but drinking from my pond does not appeal.

My scenario is that in case of really bad long term disaster ( zombies, nuclear war ) I'm happy to pop off after so many months.

In reality when people are fighting for water in the local Tesco, health centres are handing crates to those that need it most and the Tesco 10 miles down the road has tonnes. So I would store gallons just because the straws and tablets take up so little room versus water

That Argus report: My only crumb of comfort is that the press ime tend to get the wrong end of the stick..

I now feel vastly underprepped. I could literally go out and spend 2-3k on stuff right now - a large proportion on specialist meds, 440 tins of food, a year's worth of water , a whole sheep in the freezer, more means of catching my own food, 3 months extra of pet food would be nice, hazmat suits etc etc
The trouble is money, space and time. I haven't even got a will (yes I can hear you all groaning) on the basis all is going to DH. But I have done the difficult conversations in case we both die - now need to write those down.
My paperwork is all in folders but would only make sense to DH and I and he doesn't have my online passwords or access to my credit card and personal bank account.
I haven't written my funeral wishes down yet - 0r anything else that I intended to do when I got really sick such as notes from life for my children and memory boxes.The task is so huge.

I will say that the Brighton Argus isn't exactly the pinnacle of journalistic quality. I would never normally bother with it.

Tunbridge, I think there will always be more that one could do, and the prepping temperament probably militates against ever feeling that you're ready for anything. Everything you've done so far will have helped, and even if you've done nothing much, the fact that you've read the threads and thought about how things might play out means that you're already a great deal more prepared than many. Chin up.

I'm wondering when the next cases are going to start getting announced in the UK.

Steve Walsh was hospitalised on the 6th, which means the 14 day window for the first 'loose' case ends on Thursday. Then another week ish before anyone effected is likely to suffer symptoms severe enough to a) seek medical help and b) for them to be tested?

Thanks Avocado...I was just asking myself in that earlier.

I think long term, widespread disruption to utilities as a result of CV is unlikely.

I do think everyone should prep for short term outages anyway - a couple of 20p 2L bottles plus a lifestraw/bleach and half an idea of where your nearest water source is. Then a lantern and some torches in case of power cut. You can probably be prepped for the basics for less than a tenner.

Fingers crossed, no new cases for a while. I don't envy everyone living in countries badly affected.

There's always something else I could get (and probably will) but I have my basic stash in now (except for the wine which doesn't last!), so have a backup for avoiding the shops so much or isolation.