Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Going by the comments on his Facebook page, he has said before that his mobile provider doesn't give coverage in Japan and there is no Wifi provided at the hostel - hence there will be no updates.

I highly doubt he will be free to come and go! The hostel is for those in quarantine.

lemonjumper yes that’s what I thought!

No sorry, that was in response to the comment about self treating. I have no information that he is allowed to come and go. I assume he isn't since he's in quarantine.

No conspiracy theory about the phone though - he just has a shit phone package and doesn't want to pay extra. Sky news says both he and his wife have tested positive.

He’s an insulin dependent diabetic. I’m wondering if the virus is starting to affect his blood glucose. Infections typically make it rise.

I assume they have good access to all drugs they need though, which is obviously good.

I don't think we can conclude that quarantine doesn't work (or that the incubation period is longer than 14 days) purely on the basis of the Diamond Princess. Quarantine on board was flawed.

Cruise ships are not designed for strict quarantine. Even if the virus isn't airborne they have meals getting dropped off to individual cabins etc and there is plenty of scope for unwittingly infected crew to make a small error and pass the virus on etc. Yet again the long incubation period makes things all the more difficult.

I think it's terrible that all those people have been left on that ship when the quarantine has failed to protect those inside. Ok, the main purpose was to protect people outside the ship but there are some very thorny ethical issues surrounding keeping people there once it was clear the virus was spreading.

In Japan's defence though, we are talking about several thousand people on board. It's not as though finding effective quarantine locations on land would be a simple or quick task.

Shit situation all round.

HasaDigaEebowai sorry, I put self treating in quotation marks because it wasn’t quite what I wanted to say - I meant it as something other than hospital admission - so he can be treated with OTC medicines like paracetamol, cough syrup and rehydration sachets (Even if those are being provided for him in a quarantine situation) for now rather than needing IV fluids, antibiotics, or oxygen in a hospital.

AvocadoOwl agree with you that the cruise ship is not the best environment - they’ve clearly done the best they can, but haven’t members of the crew tested positive? So likely how the infection was spread to passengers in “quarantine”.

Sewage? Was one apartment in HK evacuated because of this? The system on the ship may be at fault.

Yes @Dyrne, I think I read that at least 10 crew members have tested positive. They don't have the luxury of individual cabins either. Arguably they have drawn the very shortest shittest straw of all- not only quarantined like the passengers but working to feed everyone and keep the ship in order too!

I watched some US news coverage of the Americans getting evacuated yesterday. There was a woman kicking off that they had to do another 14 days quarantine in the US, she felt she'd already had 2 weeks of her life stolen from her and was outraged that she was going to have another 2 weeks stolen. Whilst I can't imagine how difficult it must be mentally to be stuck in a cabin for 2 weeks she seemed to have rather lost any sense of proportion both in terms of the risk she presented to the US public and in terms of how horrific her ordeal had been.

In contrast there was a lovely senior couple who seemed so stoic and philosophical about it all.

The quarantine process on the ship is bizarre, because the crew haven’t been isolated so could easily be spreading the virus further around the ship. But this is within the 14 days and the Abels may have had the virus for some time, they’ve only just been tested and are asymptomatic. The chances are they caught it before they were locked down.

I’d have thought that if he’s an insulin dependent diabetic, given that and his age he needs to be in some sort of medical facility. Also, sky news love his stuff, they should just give him a local SIM card.

I haven’t had time to read through all your threads, but having heard from a friend if her experience of being tested after she returned from a high risk country (111 were useless, the organisation was shocking and the instructions were woefully inadequate exposing far more people than needed had she come back positive ) I think I’ll put a few things in place for our family.

Could someone do a quick list of things to prep or a link to a list please?

Oh I should have said she had flu symptoms but the Coronavirus test was negative thank goodness.

I think most of us are buying a few face masks, handgel for when out and about (60% + alcohol levels) and then ensuring that if they and their family were housebound for a few weeks they would have enough food, medicines etc.

Fev11 if you go to page 12 of this thread, there is a discussion about some stuff to have in.

There are also quite a few threads on this preppers board about how to starting basic stores without rushing out and spending a fortune in one go, these are for any circumstances that you may need them. There is also advice for places to store stuff when living in small flats ect...

prepping isn't about panic buying. It's the opposite. It means you are not in a position were you are fighting over the last loaf of bread at the supermarket because it's going snow, and everyone is out stripping the shelves.

French Health Minister says that a pandemic is a credible risk and their current working assumption

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-france-idUSKBN20C0QU?taid=5e4baa0781f808000152ae44&utmcampaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utmmmedium=trueAnthem&utmsource=twitter

There are large numbers of crew on the big cruise ships. I’m guessing the ones who tested positive weren’t preparing or delivering food. People still needed to eat, food was left outside the cabins. What else could they have done?

It’s possible some people were infected during the quarantine period but I expect many of them had caught it before the quarantine started.

More details about Westerdam passengers.

What I think is pretty crazy is:

• We know without a shadow of a doubt that people can test negative several times even though they actually have COVID

• We know that this is because the virus infects the lower respiratory system and can't always be picked up by the current tests if it hasn't spread to the upper respiratory system yet

• However we are still relying on one negative test to give people the all clear

Basically the tests are flawed but we still rely on them...

edition.cnn.com/2020/02/18/asia/westerdam-cruise-infection-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html

And the people who were quarantined on the Wirral weren’t totally separated either, they shared accommodation and cooking facilities with other people. I think none of them actually caught CV in the end, but if somebody had, it could have been passed on.

Example of the most woeful response ever to someone who has potentially been in contact with COVID.

Warning: The man in this video is incredibly annoying

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f5kv3b/westerdampassengerrentersusaaclearedbyy_customs/

88 total new cases for the cruise ship = 542 total now

www.theargus.co.uk/news/18242077.thirty-brighton-doctors-coronavirus-isolation-says-clinician/

30 UK doctors on isolation. Can't decide my reaction to this as

1. Good - they shouldn't be treating patients
2. Was this info deliberately withheld not to cause panic
3. Is it a non-story until one of them tests positive
4. At what point does the general public hit blind panic

I’ve just read Station Eleven - great book but scary. Combined with the discussion on here has convinced me to start prepping. Thank you!

This struck me from the Argus article, as we were discussing yesterday:

The clinician said: “Since we last spoke, the authorities have kept a much tighter grip on this kind of information. It’s all being controlled by Public Health England’s microbiology department and NHS 111.

“They’re keeping a tight reign on information, not even letting frontline staff know.

Bold fail on the second paragraph there.

My theory is (and Dr Campbell mentioned this so I'm not batshit crazy), is that it is potentially being spread through the air conditioning. That and the staff handing the trays/food are likely the problem.