Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Apologies if this has been covered already. Also I don’t want to sound too morbid but I think these things should be added to the list. It’s the sort of thing people put off doing but really needs to be thought about:

Update wills / powers of attorney

Get married, especially if you have children and are planning to anyway but for one reason or another have put it off. You won’t have to pay inheritance tax and if you don’t have a will you won’t be left out, also if you’re sick and your partner is not your next of kin they won’t be involved in any decisions.

Have difficult conversations with friends and family about who will take care of the children / the dog if you or they die.

Collect all documents related to pensions, savings, insurance policies in one easy to find place for any relatives to find.

Get life insurance and insurance to cover loss of earnings if sick
Book your holiday but make sure you book travel insurance at the same time and it covers you in case you get sick.

These things will help loved ones if you die and make their lives easier.

For a lot of us with health issues we’ve already ticked these things off the list.

That American couple from the Diamond Princess have now finally reached their quarantine quarters in Nebraska. I'm far too invested in following their updates on reddit now but can't stop til I know they're okay. Bizarrely the have to share a bathroom with someone else. That would not make me happy, especially with no access to cleaning products given that 14 of the plane load were infected. Is our prime minister going to get the brits off the boat now or not I wonder?

Apparently the government now is looking to evacuate the Brits from the cruise ship: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51541352 . Fingers crossed they do it in a better way than the US!

Good advice Fucket and something people should be doing anyway with wills/finances etc; so if this prompts people to do so then all the better!

Agree with the advice to keep on booking holidays etc but book holiday insurance with robust cancellation cover at the same time. Both in case of illness and in case the FCO start recommending against travel there. So many people think insurance is just for accidents on the holiday itself, and book it last minute. I always book insurance immediately now ever since my mum was diagnosed with cancer and thankfully got a full payout from a VERY expensive holiday she had booked and could no longer go on.

I've seen the normalcy bias in action in a serious earthquake when a relative continued to cook on a gas stove - ignoring any of my request to turn it off, not just risking scolding herself in the aftershocks but also without any concern for if there had been any damage to the gas pipes. In the end I just gathered the kids and left.

David Abel and his wife have tested positive for the virus. It suggests that quarantine doesn’t work (or that it has a longer incubation period).
mobile.twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

This is getting scarier by the day

Of course, he could have been positive for a while and had no symptoms as he wasn’t tested until recently.

I read something about the normalcy bias a couple of years ago. It was saying there are two types of people. Those who sense potential danger/threat and immediately start thinking about it eg turbulence starts on a plane, immediately sort seat belt and check belts of children before the light goes on, and those who always assume that everything will be fine and see if they can quickly pop to the loo first.

It must be nice in a way to be the type of person who assumes life will always be lovely.

It suggests that quarantine doesn’t work (or that it has a longer incubation period).

Or that it is airborne after all which would also explain the high numbers of additional cases in China despite their drastic measures.

Bit worrying that it sounds like a plan to silence him!

David Abel has said on his Facebook page:

"4pm 18th: Frankly i think this is a setup! We are NOT being taken to a hospital but a hostel. That’s where partners are sent waiting out there quarantine. No phone, no wi-fi and no medical facilities. I really am smelling a very big rat here! Waiting for the transfer now. xx"

Not had coffee yet. Where is David Abel?

Will sorted, paperwork definitely not. I should add, get divorced to the list of you are going that way anyway. ( If it is safe to do so)

Will sorted.

It is a bit suspect isn’t it. The perfect way to stop his updates...

I would really hate to be separated from my family

I am really concerned about David Abel and his wife. What would happen if they refused to go I wonder? This is feeling really dystopian now. Why on earth would the Japanese government want them to be quiet though? Surely there a hundreds of people on the ship tweeting and updating the world?

Oh come off it. The world has bigger problems than a bloke in his seventies tweeting that he's not happy about his non English food.

Let's not get the prepper thread a bad name for having silly conspiracy theories

I don't the Abels are being silenced. I think they aren't being taken to hospital because they don't need medical care (no symptoms), so the non-medical quarantine facility is more appropriate for them at the moment.

I would simply assume that they are not being taken to hospital because they don’t need to be in hospital yet. Yes, they need to be isolated however until they get to a stage of needing active medical intervention (not always needed) why should they take up resources from other people who need it?

I know CV isn’t “just” the flu but if the main symptoms are similar to a bad cold/flu then surely they should “self treat” outside of a hospital environment with regular checks to make sure they don’t deteriorate?

Why are no phones allowed?

I think it's probably a good evolutionary tactic to have some people who live in the here and now and some people who have half an eye scouting for potential problems ahead.

Why are no phones allowed?

By 'no phone' I took that to mean no phone is provided, not that no phones are allowed. I have no idea though...

I know CV isn’t “just” the flu but if the main symptoms are similar to a bad cold/flu then surely they should “self treat” outside of a hospital environment with regular checks to make sure they don’t deteriorate?

He's been diagnosed with CV. An incredibly contagious disease with a high mortality rate. Plus he's in Japan. Why on earth would they let him wander around "self treating"? He needs to be in quarantine. His wife is extremely likely to have it too.

He said he wouldn't be posting as will not have his phone. Who knows.

HasaDigaEebowai I may have misunderstood, but he’s not being allowed to “wander” around anywhere isn’t he? He’s being taken to a secure place for monitoring and quarantine (the hostel); he’s just not being taken to an actual hospital.

Oh hang on, is he free to come and go at the hostel? If so, yes u agree that’s shit!